VCU is averaging 26-62 from the field each game. That's 42.0%. If the Rams knock down two more shots–just one shot each half–that percentage rises to 45.1%, which falls into the top third of the nation.
The threat of Troy Daniels would help. Teams last season were forced to contend with the bombardier. Thus, the defense was spread out a little more, probably two steps, and that opened up everything else for other players. Defense was just a little bit out of position because of the dynamic, and the VCU aggression pounced.
Hence, the Rams need that one (or two) extra pass within its offense to get the same high quality shot opportunity.
Only two teams have shot 40% or better against VCU since we returned from Northern Iowa (GW and Stony Brook).
Juvonte Reddic is drawing two defenders every time he touches the ball in scoring position. That's the main reason his scoring is down–nobody wants him to score. Besides, if Reddic is scoring on the block, that creates a Reverse Daniels: spacing from the inside-out.
Dayton is averaging 73.4 points per game in their past five games, but only two players are scoring in double figures: Dyshawn Pierre (11.8 ppg) and Devin Oliver (10.8 ppg). The Flyers are 1-two in conference and have lost two of its last three games (home to SLU and at UR).
Two is Briante Weber's jersey number and the number of threes he has made in each of the past two games. A third straight game with two made threes bodes well for the Rams. He may be the most important player on the floor Wednesday night.
Ken Pomeroy says Dayton wins by two, 72-70. I say VCU wins by two, 74-72. This happens because the Rams put together two good halves of basketball against a very good opponent.