Kenpom computers predict A-10, VCU’s season
Ken Pomeroy’s computers have been fired up once again for the stat-junky’s annual preseason rankings and basketball’s Bill James predicts a competitive year for the Atlantic 10.
Kenpom.com predicts a tight race atop the A-10 based off equations that take into account both previous and predicted results, ranking all of the top seven A-10 teams within one game of each other, VCU included.
The Rams check in as the No.3 team in Pomeroy’s A-10, his 53rd ranked team in all of college basketball with a predicted record of 19-11 overall and 11-7 in conference play.
VCU’s last finish of 20 wins or less came all the way back in 2006. The Rams have finished 12-6 or better in all three of their seasons of A-10 play (the A-10 switched to an 18-game season just this past year), finishing 12-6 last season after going 12-4 their first two seasons in the conference.
Pomeroy’s computers rank Davidson and Rhode Island atop the conference with the Wildcats checking in as his top A-10 team overall with a preseason kenpom ranking of No.46, his only top-50 A-10 team a season after the league boasted three top-50 programs: VCU at No.28, Dayton at No.37 and Davidson at No.43.
The conference has finished with at least three top-50 teams each season VCU has competed in the league.
KENPOM.COM PREDICTED A-10
No.46 Davidson 12-6
No.50 Rhode Island 12-6
No.53 VCU 11-7
No.58 George Washington 11-7
No.64 Richmond 11-7
No.65 Dayton 11-7
No.74 Saint Joseph’s 11-7
No.100 St. Bonaventure 9-9
No.129 Duquesne 7-11
No.139 La Salle 7-11
No.153 Saint Louis 7-11
No.158 George Mason 6-12
No.173 Fordham 6-12
No.174 UMass 6-12
Those numbers however don’t match Kenpom’s matchup predictions (due to luck, the fact that the favorites don’t always win, etc). Going down the schedule VCU is the favorite according to Pomeroy’s computers in 13 of their 18 conference games for a “favorite record” of 13-5 in the A-10 and 21-9 overall. They also don’t factor in VCU’s Sunday game at Madison Square Garden as a part of this year’s 2K Classic due to the opponent not being set yet.
SCHEDULE PREDICTION HIGHLIGHTS
Biggest predicted victory: 82-59 v Prairie View A&M (Nov 13)
Biggest predicted loss: 76-66 v Duke (Nov 20, New York)
Biggest Atlantic 10 predicted win: (tie) 73-62 v Mason (Jan 2), 73-62 v Fordham (Jan 13)
Biggest Atlantic 10 predicted loss: 75-70 at Davidson
Rivalry record: 68-61 win v ODU (Nov 28), 67-64 loss at Richmond (Jan 16), 68-64 win v Richmond (Feb 19)