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Kenpom predicts VCU’s season

Ken Pomeroy’s kenpom.com has rolled out it’s preseason rankings (for methodology, click here and here) and the numbers junkie is predicting a bit of a dip for the black and gold in Mike Rhoades’ return to Broad St..

After finishing 50th nationally in last season’s Pomeroy computer standings, the Rams begin this season as the 83rd best team according to the site. Kenpom has an 18-11 projected record and an 11-7 conference finish, but due to yet-to-be-determined Maui Invitational matchups, that first number is missing two regular season games. Broken down on a game-by-game favorite level however, Pomeroy predicts a 21-8 finish with a 14-4 conference record.

Last season Pomeroy predicted a 22-7 regular season for the Rams (but again, missing two non-conference matchups) with a 13-5 Atlantic 10 finish. The Rams finished 24-7 overall and went 14-4 in conference play.

Pomeroy’s predicts VCU will have the nation’s 113th best offense and 74th best defense. The Rams ranked 72nd nationally last season in adjusted offensive efficiency and 41st on D. Pomeroy’s offensive prediction would mean an offense as efficient as VCU’s 2008 NIT team, his defensive efficiency prediction most similar to VCU’s 2009 NCAA tournament team.

Previous week 1 VCU Kenpom rankings (end of season ranking)

2016-17 : 33 (48)
2015-16 : 52 (31)
2014-15 : 17 (30)
2013-14 : 21 (25)
2012-13 : 31 (18)
2011-12 : 68 (46)
2010-11 : 57 (53)

The Rams are predicted to finish third in this season’s Atlantic 10 behind Rhode Island (12-6) and Saint Joseph’s (13-5), finishing tied at 11-7 with St. Bonaventure but as the predictor winner of what would be a tie-breaking home-and-home matchup over the Bonnies to put the Rams third in the conference standings. Pomeroy has all four of those teams outside of the national top-60 and adds the Davidson Wildcats as the conference’s only other top-100 team at 86th.

The Rams can turn Pomeroy’s model on it’s head however by holding serve at home. Kenpom predicts VCU home losses against UVA (71-63), Texas (76-73) and Rhode Island (75-74).