VCU picked up a surprisingly big win this past weekend against Keith Urgo's top-4 hopeful Fordham squad and will look to push the A-10 pace in the race for first against a St. Joe's team looking to not only play spoiler tonight, but keep pace in attempting to earn themselves a first-round bye. The Hawks are a game back from sixth under fourth-year Head Coach, Billy Lange, a coach who has done nothing but struggle since taking over for Hawks legend, Phil Martelli. Martelli's son, Jimmy, has been an assistant under Mike Rhoades since Rhoades took over the VCU job, so perhaps a little family payback also happens to be on the line tonight as well at 7PM.
VCU RAMS (20-7, 11-3)
VCU RAMS (20-7, 11-3)
ST. JOSEPH'S HAWKS (13-14, 7-8)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT ST. JOE'S[/HEADING=3]
As I mentioned, it has been nothing but struggles since Lange took over on Hawk Hill. The former Navy head coach and NBA assistant was a combined 10-38 in A-10 games his first three years, but with a win tonight could have the Hawks at an improved .500 in both conference play and on the season as well. Far from the success the Hawks had when Martelli led them to A-10 tourney championships, but at least not at the absolute bottom of the conference this season. Still, the Hawks rank just 193rd nationally on kenpom due to an offense that has been less than scary and a defense that hasn't been all that much better.
In conference play the Hawks rank top-half of the conference in both offensive (sixth) and defensive (seventh) efficiency. The challenge there though is that success has come against one of the weaker conference schedules the A-10 has since this year (12th out of 15 teams versus VCU's 4th-ranked schedule). St. Joe's is currently 0-5 against the A-10 top-five with an average margin of defeat of 12.6 points.
The Hawks are led by sophomore guard, Erik Reynolds, a relatively highly-recruited Maryland native who is averaging a team-best 18.3 points for St. Joe's while shooting a strong 37.6% from three. Reynold's does a nice job of not turning the ball over and overall is just the best player for the Hawks, a serious transfer threat if the Hawks were to let go of Lange and perhaps one next season regardless. Reynolds is one of just two active players with a positive box plus/minus at the moment, joining guard/forward, Cameron Brown. Kacper Klaczek, a 6'8 forward would be there with them, but the Chrozow, Poland native has missed the last six games for the Hawks.
On the season the Hawks have really struggled from beyond the three-point line, connecting on 33.5% of their threes (212th nationally). They've struggled with turnovers overall, but have been a bit improved there in conference action.
Defensively the Hawks have had some issues in A-10 action with fouling and defending the three.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE VCU RAMS[/HEADING=3]
You know these dudes, so let's highlight a key stat: VCU shot 38.5% from three and 71.9% from the free throw stripe and beat a good Fordham team (yeah, that still sounds weird) by 19 points. The Rams weren't threatened at all the second half, even when that three-point percentage was at 33%, pointing out the fact that if VCU is simply mediocre from three (33%, maybe even less, but hopefully over 30%)...they can be downright deadly. VCU won at Rhody despite shooting 7% from three, won at SLU despite shooting 23.5% from three and won at Davidson despite shooting 0% from three. They lost to Dayton by just four points despite shooting 21% from three and 50% from the stripe.
So there you go. That tell you much about this team's ceiling? If guys are just simply mediocre shooting the ball, VCU has A-10 Championship potential. If they get hot from three like we saw during one stretch of games this year, they are a real threat to upset teams in the NCAA tournament...IF they can get there first.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 72.3, VCU 69.9</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 62.8, SJU 71.9</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 51%, SJU 50.2%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 47.4%, SJU 50.5%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 33.5%, VCU 32.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 33.3%, SJU 34.5%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 51.9%, SJU 50.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46%, SJU 49.6%</span>
<span style="color: #000000;">Rebounds per game: </span><span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 35.2, VCU 32.8</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 18.5%, VCU 20.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.1%, SJU 19.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Mediocre three-point shooting (33%-ish or so?) and not bad free throw shooting (70%+). That's what I'll be watching for. The Rams have played well consistently on defense, ranking 28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and are tops in the conference. Mike Rhoades' teams have been darn good at that, which is to be applauded. This year's Rams have been ELITE at drawing fouls (sixth in the nation in offensive free throw rate) and are solid at finishing inside the arc, so again, VCU CAN probably win this game with a bad night from three-point land, but that is just a way more stressful way to go, so offensively if they can be a simply mediocre three-point shooting team while knocking down their free throws, VCU has the ability to pull out another big road W and continue to lead the pack in the race for an A-10 regular season title.
Kenpom: 72-67 VCU win with a 66% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at Hagan Arena in Philadelphia, PA
Watch: MASN/ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
As I mentioned, it has been nothing but struggles since Lange took over on Hawk Hill. The former Navy head coach and NBA assistant was a combined 10-38 in A-10 games his first three years, but with a win tonight could have the Hawks at an improved .500 in both conference play and on the season as well. Far from the success the Hawks had when Martelli led them to A-10 tourney championships, but at least not at the absolute bottom of the conference this season. Still, the Hawks rank just 193rd nationally on kenpom due to an offense that has been less than scary and a defense that hasn't been all that much better.
In conference play the Hawks rank top-half of the conference in both offensive (sixth) and defensive (seventh) efficiency. The challenge there though is that success has come against one of the weaker conference schedules the A-10 has since this year (12th out of 15 teams versus VCU's 4th-ranked schedule). St. Joe's is currently 0-5 against the A-10 top-five with an average margin of defeat of 12.6 points.
The Hawks are led by sophomore guard, Erik Reynolds, a relatively highly-recruited Maryland native who is averaging a team-best 18.3 points for St. Joe's while shooting a strong 37.6% from three. Reynold's does a nice job of not turning the ball over and overall is just the best player for the Hawks, a serious transfer threat if the Hawks were to let go of Lange and perhaps one next season regardless. Reynolds is one of just two active players with a positive box plus/minus at the moment, joining guard/forward, Cameron Brown. Kacper Klaczek, a 6'8 forward would be there with them, but the Chrozow, Poland native has missed the last six games for the Hawks.
On the season the Hawks have really struggled from beyond the three-point line, connecting on 33.5% of their threes (212th nationally). They've struggled with turnovers overall, but have been a bit improved there in conference action.
Defensively the Hawks have had some issues in A-10 action with fouling and defending the three.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE VCU RAMS[/HEADING=3]
You know these dudes, so let's highlight a key stat: VCU shot 38.5% from three and 71.9% from the free throw stripe and beat a good Fordham team (yeah, that still sounds weird) by 19 points. The Rams weren't threatened at all the second half, even when that three-point percentage was at 33%, pointing out the fact that if VCU is simply mediocre from three (33%, maybe even less, but hopefully over 30%)...they can be downright deadly. VCU won at Rhody despite shooting 7% from three, won at SLU despite shooting 23.5% from three and won at Davidson despite shooting 0% from three. They lost to Dayton by just four points despite shooting 21% from three and 50% from the stripe.
So there you go. That tell you much about this team's ceiling? If guys are just simply mediocre shooting the ball, VCU has A-10 Championship potential. If they get hot from three like we saw during one stretch of games this year, they are a real threat to upset teams in the NCAA tournament...IF they can get there first.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 72.3, VCU 69.9</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 62.8, SJU 71.9</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 51%, SJU 50.2%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 47.4%, SJU 50.5%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 33.5%, VCU 32.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 33.3%, SJU 34.5%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 51.9%, SJU 50.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46%, SJU 49.6%</span>
<span style="color: #000000;">Rebounds per game: </span><span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 35.2, VCU 32.8</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 18.5%, VCU 20.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.1%, SJU 19.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Mediocre three-point shooting (33%-ish or so?) and not bad free throw shooting (70%+). That's what I'll be watching for. The Rams have played well consistently on defense, ranking 28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and are tops in the conference. Mike Rhoades' teams have been darn good at that, which is to be applauded. This year's Rams have been ELITE at drawing fouls (sixth in the nation in offensive free throw rate) and are solid at finishing inside the arc, so again, VCU CAN probably win this game with a bad night from three-point land, but that is just a way more stressful way to go, so offensively if they can be a simply mediocre three-point shooting team while knocking down their free throws, VCU has the ability to pull out another big road W and continue to lead the pack in the race for an A-10 regular season title.
Kenpom: 72-67 VCU win with a 66% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at Hagan Arena in Philadelphia, PA
Watch: MASN/ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 72.3, VCU 69.9</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 62.8, SJU 71.9</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 51%, SJU 50.2%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 47.4%, SJU 50.5%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 33.5%, VCU 32.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 33.3%, SJU 34.5%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 51.9%, SJU 50.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46%, SJU 49.6%</span>
<span style="color: #000000;">Rebounds per game: </span><span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 35.2, VCU 32.8</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SJU 18.5%, VCU 20.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.1%, SJU 19.4%</span>
