Finally, it appears after a three-week COVID-induced break, the VCU men's basketball team will play again, this time at UD Arena against former Rams head coach, Anthony Grant. It's a contest that matches up two of the best groups of young talent in the conference, two teams that hope to compete for A-10 title for years to come.
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VCU (7-4)
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VCU (7-4)
DAYTON (8-5)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT DAYTON[/HEADING=3]
Dayton has without a doubt the most puzzling resume in all of college hoops, one that may be an interesting challenge for the selection committee in March should the Flyers find Atlantic 10 success. Dayton started the season at just 1-4 with three consecutive home losses to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay, all of which rank 236th or worse on kenpom (AP checking in at No.310 as of this post). They legit looked like an A-10 tourney Wednesday night pillow fight candidate heading into this year's ESPN Events Invitational tournament that heading into it seemed like three more losses on deck, but that of course is where Anthony Grant's squad flipped the script to confuse all of college basketball.
The Flyers picked up an opening matchup win against a top-100 Miami squad, but then shocked everyone by defeating Kansas in the following contest, the Jawyhawks' only loss so far this season, then completed the tournament title run by defeating kenpom fringe top-50 squad, Belmont.
After one of the worst stretches in program history, the Flyers ran off one of the best runs. Since then they have gone 4-2, three of their wins coming against complete cupcakes, but one against kenpom No.29 Virginia Tech. Their two losses were single-digit defeats to solid opponents in No.62 SMU and No.104 Mississippi.
How have they been so inconsistent?
Well while the Flyers are clearly extremely talented, they are also extremely young/inexperienced. Dayton brought in the A-10's top 2021 recruiting class according to 247Sports, but also rank dead last in the nation in experience. It's the classic "we're gonna look great sometimes and we're gonna frustrate you sometimes" scenario teams get with this level of youth.
Of that extremely young group, perhaps none are as promising (or young) as true freshman starters, PG Malachi Smith (brother of Dayton legend, Scoochie Smith) and center DaRon Holmes. Holmes was the A-10's highest rated recruit coming into the season at No.54, a rare top-50ish prospect for the conference and he's looked every bit worthy of the hype so far. The 6'10 center is tied for tops in points scored at 10.4 per contest for the Flyers and blocks a team-best 2.3 shots per game. He leads all Flyers in overall box plus/minus, just ahead of his partner in crime, Smith.
Scoochie's younger brother has been sensational for the Flyers with a 32.2% assist rate and a VCU-esque 4.2% steals percentage. He's averaging 10 points a game and hitting 42.1% of his threes.
He and Holmes are the Flyers two most-played players, just outpacing experienced transfers in Toumani Camara (via Georgia) and Elijah Weaver (USC). Weaver is in his second season with the Flyers and was very hot or cold from game-to-game heading into this season, but seems to be finding his consistency, while the 6'8 Brussels native, Camara, is just as capable as a scorer, but has struggled massively with turnovers on the season, something VCU will hope shows in tonight's battle.
Camara's turnover issues are a team issue as well, the Flyers ranking 314th nationally in turnover percentage offense. They rebound well, draw fouls well and are elite scoring inside the arc (11th nationally in 2-point percentage), but rank 231st beyond the arc. Defensively the Flyers have been solid, but far from elite, giving up an embarrassing 87 points to the nation's 283rd-ranked offense in Austin Peay earlier this year.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
It seems like it's been a year since we last looked at VCU, with the big question heading into tonight's contest being who exactly we'll get to watch play. COVID pauses on VCU's end have canceled the last three games for the Rams, so who's showing up healthy in Dayton tonight remains to be seen. Regardless, playing without their full complement of players is something VCU has gotten used to doing so far this season. The Rams played most of their games without the services of Ace Baldwin, arguably VCU's best player, then upon his return were without Hason Ward and Mikeal Brown-Jones. So far we've seen social media posts with all three in Dayton, as well as the likes of Vince Williams, Marcus Tsohonis and Josh Banks, so this could oddly enough be one of VCU's deepest benches yet this season.
While the pieces have changed, what's been most consistent for the Rams is defense. The black and gold rank 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency and with Baldwin's return, have seen a positive bump in what's been struggling offensive efficiency prior, although a step down in competition has likely helped there as well.
One of the biggest issues for VCU offensively has been turnovers, something Baldwin's return is having an immediate positive impact on. Baldwin has 14 assists in his three games back to just five turnovers for a 48.8% assist rate that is currently one of the best we've seen from a VCU point guard. The Rams' ability to get Ace's starting group to cut their TO rates down with him will go a long way in just how dangerous this VCU team ultimately will be. Simply defending at the level they have with an improved turnover offense makes this VCU team a legit A-10 title contender.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 70.4, VCU 60.5</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 56.7, UD 64.4</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 53.8%, VCU 47.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 40.6%, UD 48.9%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 32%, VCU 29.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 23.8%, UD 33%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 57.1%, VCU 49.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 43.2%, UD 48.6%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.2, VCU 32.5</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 22%, VCU 23.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.1%, UD 17.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Defense travels, right? The Rams' ability to limit easy baskets and create turnovers on D while not fighting the game on the other end of the court will go a long way toward tonight's result. VCU is riding a three-game winning streak against Dayton (and a much more experienced versions of the Flyers) and hope to see that streak continue. One of the biggest unknowns heading into this one as well is just how well the Rams bounce back from not only such a long period off (three weeks), but coming off a sickness as well that has done who knows what to add a whole other different level of rust. Quarantine isn't an easy way to stay in game shape, so the Rams ability to bounce back physically, while gelling as a basketball team, will go a long way toward starting off a delayed conference start with a win.
Kenpom: 62-60 VCU loss with a 44% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Dayton has without a doubt the most puzzling resume in all of college hoops, one that may be an interesting challenge for the selection committee in March should the Flyers find Atlantic 10 success. Dayton started the season at just 1-4 with three consecutive home losses to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay, all of which rank 236th or worse on kenpom (AP checking in at No.310 as of this post). They legit looked like an A-10 tourney Wednesday night pillow fight candidate heading into this year's ESPN Events Invitational tournament that heading into it seemed like three more losses on deck, but that of course is where Anthony Grant's squad flipped the script to confuse all of college basketball.
The Flyers picked up an opening matchup win against a top-100 Miami squad, but then shocked everyone by defeating Kansas in the following contest, the Jawyhawks' only loss so far this season, then completed the tournament title run by defeating kenpom fringe top-50 squad, Belmont.
After one of the worst stretches in program history, the Flyers ran off one of the best runs. Since then they have gone 4-2, three of their wins coming against complete cupcakes, but one against kenpom No.29 Virginia Tech. Their two losses were single-digit defeats to solid opponents in No.62 SMU and No.104 Mississippi.
How have they been so inconsistent?
Well while the Flyers are clearly extremely talented, they are also extremely young/inexperienced. Dayton brought in the A-10's top 2021 recruiting class according to 247Sports, but also rank dead last in the nation in experience. It's the classic "we're gonna look great sometimes and we're gonna frustrate you sometimes" scenario teams get with this level of youth.
Of that extremely young group, perhaps none are as promising (or young) as true freshman starters, PG Malachi Smith (brother of Dayton legend, Scoochie Smith) and center DaRon Holmes. Holmes was the A-10's highest rated recruit coming into the season at No.54, a rare top-50ish prospect for the conference and he's looked every bit worthy of the hype so far. The 6'10 center is tied for tops in points scored at 10.4 per contest for the Flyers and blocks a team-best 2.3 shots per game. He leads all Flyers in overall box plus/minus, just ahead of his partner in crime, Smith.
Scoochie's younger brother has been sensational for the Flyers with a 32.2% assist rate and a VCU-esque 4.2% steals percentage. He's averaging 10 points a game and hitting 42.1% of his threes.
He and Holmes are the Flyers two most-played players, just outpacing experienced transfers in Toumani Camara (via Georgia) and Elijah Weaver (USC). Weaver is in his second season with the Flyers and was very hot or cold from game-to-game heading into this season, but seems to be finding his consistency, while the 6'8 Brussels native, Camara, is just as capable as a scorer, but has struggled massively with turnovers on the season, something VCU will hope shows in tonight's battle.
Camara's turnover issues are a team issue as well, the Flyers ranking 314th nationally in turnover percentage offense. They rebound well, draw fouls well and are elite scoring inside the arc (11th nationally in 2-point percentage), but rank 231st beyond the arc. Defensively the Flyers have been solid, but far from elite, giving up an embarrassing 87 points to the nation's 283rd-ranked offense in Austin Peay earlier this year.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
It seems like it's been a year since we last looked at VCU, with the big question heading into tonight's contest being who exactly we'll get to watch play. COVID pauses on VCU's end have canceled the last three games for the Rams, so who's showing up healthy in Dayton tonight remains to be seen. Regardless, playing without their full complement of players is something VCU has gotten used to doing so far this season. The Rams played most of their games without the services of Ace Baldwin, arguably VCU's best player, then upon his return were without Hason Ward and Mikeal Brown-Jones. So far we've seen social media posts with all three in Dayton, as well as the likes of Vince Williams, Marcus Tsohonis and Josh Banks, so this could oddly enough be one of VCU's deepest benches yet this season.
While the pieces have changed, what's been most consistent for the Rams is defense. The black and gold rank 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency and with Baldwin's return, have seen a positive bump in what's been struggling offensive efficiency prior, although a step down in competition has likely helped there as well.
One of the biggest issues for VCU offensively has been turnovers, something Baldwin's return is having an immediate positive impact on. Baldwin has 14 assists in his three games back to just five turnovers for a 48.8% assist rate that is currently one of the best we've seen from a VCU point guard. The Rams' ability to get Ace's starting group to cut their TO rates down with him will go a long way in just how dangerous this VCU team ultimately will be. Simply defending at the level they have with an improved turnover offense makes this VCU team a legit A-10 title contender.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 70.4, VCU 60.5</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 56.7, UD 64.4</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 53.8%, VCU 47.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 40.6%, UD 48.9%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 32%, VCU 29.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 23.8%, UD 33%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 57.1%, VCU 49.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 43.2%, UD 48.6%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.2, VCU 32.5</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 22%, VCU 23.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.1%, UD 17.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Defense travels, right? The Rams' ability to limit easy baskets and create turnovers on D while not fighting the game on the other end of the court will go a long way toward tonight's result. VCU is riding a three-game winning streak against Dayton (and a much more experienced versions of the Flyers) and hope to see that streak continue. One of the biggest unknowns heading into this one as well is just how well the Rams bounce back from not only such a long period off (three weeks), but coming off a sickness as well that has done who knows what to add a whole other different level of rust. Quarantine isn't an easy way to stay in game shape, so the Rams ability to bounce back physically, while gelling as a basketball team, will go a long way toward starting off a delayed conference start with a win.
Kenpom: 62-60 VCU loss with a 44% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 70.4, VCU 60.5</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 56.7, UD 64.4</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 53.8%, VCU 47.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 40.6%, UD 48.9%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 32%, VCU 29.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 23.8%, UD 33%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 57.1%, VCU 49.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 43.2%, UD 48.6%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.2, VCU 32.5</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 22%, VCU 23.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.1%, UD 17.4%</span>
