The Rams head to Dayton looking for a bounce-back victory after an offense-optional home loss against Rhody. The black and gold swept the Flyers last season and are riding a four-game winning streak against former head coach Anthony Grant, but face a much-improved Flyers squad that currently ranks No.6 in the country on kenpom and is a legit Final 4 contender. A win gives VCU a much-needed resume booster while a loss drops the Rams to .500 in conference play and likely on the outside looking in to this year's NCAA tournament. Buckle up.
VCU (12-4, 2-1)
VCU (12-4, 2-1)
DAYTON (14-2, 3-0)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT DAYTON[/HEADING=3]
The Flyers have lived in the top-25 since first entering it the fifth week of the season (coincidentally the first week VCU left the rankings this season) thanks to what is now the No.3 nationally ranked offense in America. Like last season, Grant's squad is headlined by NBA lottery prospect, Obi Toppin, but this year have surrounded the star forward with a handful of complementary players that have made the A-10's current No.1 a balanced squad capable of a deep run in March and a real threat to run the table in Atlantic 10 play.
Toppin leads the team in both points (19.3) and rebounds (7.4), but is one if five Flyers now averaging double-digit points in what is perhaps without question the Atlantic 10's deepest roster. Seniors Ryan Mikesell and Trey Landers are having career years, both posting offensive ratings of 124+, currently better than every single active VCU player. They are joined in the 124+ club by Michigan transfer Ibi Watson (126.6), a 6'5 wing shooting a lights out 48.5% from deep.
Watson is outpacing returning guard, Jalen Crutcher, a 6'1 junior hitting a scary enough 39.3% of his threes as well. Crutcher leads the team with 5.2 assists per contest and is joined by Chattanooga transfer, a capable scorer at nine points per contest while dishing out 4.3 assists a night. Chatman leads the team at 1.4 steals per game.
Dayton's defense isn't quite as scary as their offense, but the Flyers are currently living inside the top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency at No.43 nationally. Dayton has the 77th best interior D in the nation, limiting opponents to 45.5% shooting inside the arc and blocking 10.3% of their opponents shot. They are beatable from distance however, ranking 250th currently in three-point percentage D.
The Flyers are 3-2 against kenpom top-100 teams this season, having destroyed No.78 Georgia by 19 points, dominated No.57 Virginia Tech by 27 on a neutral court and defeated No.33 St. Mary's 78-68. Their two losses are both to top-50 squads and both in overtime. The Flyers led kenpom No.2 Kansas late, but ultimately fell 90-84 in an overtime Maui Invitational thriller. Their most recent loss came in overtime as well, falling by a basket to kenpom No.24 Colorado in Chicago.
UD has dominated most of their opponents, ranking third nationally in averaged margin of victory behind only Duke and San Diego State, but they have been challenged by questionable opponents, narrowly escaping Indiana State 86-81 in the Flyers home opener and heading into the half tied with kenpom No.254 Saint Joseph's, before eventually pulling away late in the 13-point win.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
VCU has continued to watch their stock drop throughout the season, falling from 23rd on kenpom nationally to start the season, down to No.51 heading into tonight's matchup. Mike Rhoades' squad has seen extremely slight dips in both offensive and defensive efficiency from last season that have led to a 1-4 start against kenpom top-100 teams. That all came to a head when the black and gold saw their 21-game home winning streak snapped this past weekend against Rhode Island, a game that highlighted VCU's biggest struggle this season: an inconsistent offense.
The Rams hit just 21.4% of their threes against Rhody and only 38.5% of their attempts inside the arc. VCU has shot a combined 44.8% inside the arc against top-100 teams this season and 27.1% from distance in those games. That's about as efficient as this year's 315th-ranked two-point offense has been on the year and the 345th-ranked three-point offense.
In short, good teams have made VCU's offense look miserable.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 83.4 VCU 70.9</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 60.9, UD 64.9</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 59.1%, VCU 49.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46%, UD 47.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 37.5%, VCU 34.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 32.5%, UD 34.6%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 62.3%, VCU 47.7%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.6%, UD 45%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.4, VCU 34.3</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 18.3%, VCU 18.9%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 26.5%, UD 21.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
The best comparison to this game is VCU v LSU. The Tigers are currently ranked seventh nationally in offensive efficiency and No.100 on D and have comparable athletes to what the Rams will see today including some first round draft pick caliber players. VCU needed 84 points to win that one, 15 more points than their second highest scoring night against a top-100 team. The Rams were just ok at connecting on shots in that one, but drew 25 fouls on the Tigers to outscore LSU by 10 at the free throw stripe. I think VCU will likely need that type of night to win at Dayton tonight.
If Marcus Evans and Co. aren't hitting their shots they 100% need to be turning the missed ones into freebies at the stripe. If not, this game will look less like the one-point win at UD Arena last season and more like the 27-point loss there the season before.
Kenpom: 75-65 VCU loss with a 17% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 8PM at UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
The Flyers have lived in the top-25 since first entering it the fifth week of the season (coincidentally the first week VCU left the rankings this season) thanks to what is now the No.3 nationally ranked offense in America. Like last season, Grant's squad is headlined by NBA lottery prospect, Obi Toppin, but this year have surrounded the star forward with a handful of complementary players that have made the A-10's current No.1 a balanced squad capable of a deep run in March and a real threat to run the table in Atlantic 10 play.
Toppin leads the team in both points (19.3) and rebounds (7.4), but is one if five Flyers now averaging double-digit points in what is perhaps without question the Atlantic 10's deepest roster. Seniors Ryan Mikesell and Trey Landers are having career years, both posting offensive ratings of 124+, currently better than every single active VCU player. They are joined in the 124+ club by Michigan transfer Ibi Watson (126.6), a 6'5 wing shooting a lights out 48.5% from deep.
Watson is outpacing returning guard, Jalen Crutcher, a 6'1 junior hitting a scary enough 39.3% of his threes as well. Crutcher leads the team with 5.2 assists per contest and is joined by Chattanooga transfer, a capable scorer at nine points per contest while dishing out 4.3 assists a night. Chatman leads the team at 1.4 steals per game.
Dayton's defense isn't quite as scary as their offense, but the Flyers are currently living inside the top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency at No.43 nationally. Dayton has the 77th best interior D in the nation, limiting opponents to 45.5% shooting inside the arc and blocking 10.3% of their opponents shot. They are beatable from distance however, ranking 250th currently in three-point percentage D.
The Flyers are 3-2 against kenpom top-100 teams this season, having destroyed No.78 Georgia by 19 points, dominated No.57 Virginia Tech by 27 on a neutral court and defeated No.33 St. Mary's 78-68. Their two losses are both to top-50 squads and both in overtime. The Flyers led kenpom No.2 Kansas late, but ultimately fell 90-84 in an overtime Maui Invitational thriller. Their most recent loss came in overtime as well, falling by a basket to kenpom No.24 Colorado in Chicago.
UD has dominated most of their opponents, ranking third nationally in averaged margin of victory behind only Duke and San Diego State, but they have been challenged by questionable opponents, narrowly escaping Indiana State 86-81 in the Flyers home opener and heading into the half tied with kenpom No.254 Saint Joseph's, before eventually pulling away late in the 13-point win.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
VCU has continued to watch their stock drop throughout the season, falling from 23rd on kenpom nationally to start the season, down to No.51 heading into tonight's matchup. Mike Rhoades' squad has seen extremely slight dips in both offensive and defensive efficiency from last season that have led to a 1-4 start against kenpom top-100 teams. That all came to a head when the black and gold saw their 21-game home winning streak snapped this past weekend against Rhode Island, a game that highlighted VCU's biggest struggle this season: an inconsistent offense.
The Rams hit just 21.4% of their threes against Rhody and only 38.5% of their attempts inside the arc. VCU has shot a combined 44.8% inside the arc against top-100 teams this season and 27.1% from distance in those games. That's about as efficient as this year's 315th-ranked two-point offense has been on the year and the 345th-ranked three-point offense.
In short, good teams have made VCU's offense look miserable.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 83.4 VCU 70.9</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 60.9, UD 64.9</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 59.1%, VCU 49.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46%, UD 47.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 37.5%, VCU 34.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 32.5%, UD 34.6%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 62.3%, VCU 47.7%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.6%, UD 45%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.4, VCU 34.3</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 18.3%, VCU 18.9%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 26.5%, UD 21.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
The best comparison to this game is VCU v LSU. The Tigers are currently ranked seventh nationally in offensive efficiency and No.100 on D and have comparable athletes to what the Rams will see today including some first round draft pick caliber players. VCU needed 84 points to win that one, 15 more points than their second highest scoring night against a top-100 team. The Rams were just ok at connecting on shots in that one, but drew 25 fouls on the Tigers to outscore LSU by 10 at the free throw stripe. I think VCU will likely need that type of night to win at Dayton tonight.
If Marcus Evans and Co. aren't hitting their shots they 100% need to be turning the missed ones into freebies at the stripe. If not, this game will look less like the one-point win at UD Arena last season and more like the 27-point loss there the season before.
Kenpom: 75-65 VCU loss with a 17% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 8PM at UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 83.4 VCU 70.9</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 60.9, UD 64.9</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 59.1%, VCU 49.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46%, UD 47.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 37.5%, VCU 34.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 32.5%, UD 34.6%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 62.3%, VCU 47.7%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.6%, UD 45%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.4, VCU 34.3</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 18.3%, VCU 18.9%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 26.5%, UD 21.4%</span>
