Game Preview: VCU at No.4 UVA [INSIDER]

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The Rams and Wahoos tip it up in Charlottesville today in a rematch of UVA's nine-point win at the Stu last seasons. The black and gold took down the Cavs, 59-56, in their last matchup at John Paul Jones arena as a part of an 8-2 start to the 2013-14 season, an NCAA at-large year for the Rams. A win would match that 8-2 start for VCU and no doubt put them right in the discussion of at-large worthy NCAA tournament teams coming off what would be two huge road wins for VCU. 
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<h4>VCU (7-2)<br />No.4 UVA (8-0)</h4>
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<h4>A QUICK LOOK AT UVA</h4>
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The Cavaliers have been one of the most consistent teams in college basketball under Tony Bennett, now in his 10th season in Charlottesville. After four years of rebuilding the mess left by Dave Leito, Bennett has led UVA to five consecutive NCAA tournaments, all of those seasons as a five-seed or better, three of which the Wahoos earned No.1 seeds. Bennett built that success largely on a suffocating pack line defense he brought with him from Washington State, a D that has had Bennett-coached teams in the top-10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency nine of his 13 seasons as a DI head coach including this year where the Cavs rank fourth in the nation. This season, following UVA's historic round-1 NCAA tournament upset loss to UMBC (the only No.1 seed to ever lose to a 16), Bennett's Cavs are hungry to bounce back after that embarrassment and have been one of the 10 most efficient teams in the nation on both offense and defense. UVA has made relatively easy work of most of their schedule thus far, but have had allowed the three top-100 teams they've matched up with to keep things fairly close. All three of Dayton, Maryland and Wisconsin got within striking distance of UVA so far this season, pulling within at least four points late in the second half, but each contest ended with the Wahoos weathering the storm behind their top-notch defense and extremely patient offense. Virginia ranks 353rd out of 353 DI teams in tempo, opting to grind down opponents in their efficiency machine and are the second best team in the country at not turning the ball over, something that could test the VCU D today. Juniors Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome lead the team alongside sophomore De'Andre Hunter, but it's freshman Kihei Clark who's been a bit of a breakout star this season. The California native came to UVA with little fanfare but has quickly earned a major role as the teams starting point guard. Clark has 22 assists on the year to just five turnovers and has averaged over 30 minutes in all three of UVA's top-100 battles. 
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<h4>A QUICK LOOK AT VCU</h4>
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 The black and gold are on a confidence high after notching what is easily the signature win of the Mike Rhoades era, a 54-53 road win over former VCU head coach Shaka Smart and his Texas Longhorns. The Rams miraculously picked up the win despite shooting just 28% from the field, highlighting just how deadly the VCU defense has been this season. While UVA has become known as perhaps the best defensive team in the country under Bennett, VCU actually enters this game limiting opponents to a worse effective field goal percentage (40.4%) than UVA has thus far (44.8%). The Rams have shown signs of improvement in their early season inability to hold on to the ball, turning it over an average of 12.5 times per contest these last four games following what was a 18.4 TO per game average their first five games to start the season. Up next on the Rams improvement checklist is more offensive efficiency, this time coming in the shooting stats. The Rams have struggled to hit shots this season and in the case of most of their experienced players, are missing a high percentage of shots that they've made over their careers thus far. The high-volume trio of Marcus Evans, De'Riante Jenkins and Issac Vann are VCU's only players averaging double-digit shot attempts per contest, but all are currently posting true shooting percentages below their career averages. Ram fans will hope VCU can maintain their current level of D while seeing that trio's offensive percentages level out as well. Their ability to do so will set the bar for just how good the Rams can be this year.
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Note: I keep saying Jenkins and Evans in particular are due to regress to the mean, meaning they have an explosive game that gets their numbers closer to their career averages. Let's hope it happens today when the Rams need it the most.
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TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
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Scoring Offense: UVA 74.8, VCU 68.4<br />Scoring Defense: UVA 51.5, VCU 61.6<br />Effective Field Goal% Offense: UVA 57%, VCU 46.1%<br />Effective Field Goal% Defense: VCU 40.4%, UVA 44.8%<br />3-Point Field Goal%: UVA 40.2%, VCU 29.4%<br />3-Point Field Goal% Defense: VCU 23.9%, UVA 28.5%<br />2-Point Field Goal%: UVA 54.8%, VCU 47.6%<br />2-Point Field Goal% Defense: VCU 42.7%, UVA 45.9%<br />Rebounds per game: VCU 39.4, UVA 32.1<br />Turnover% Offense: UVA 12.7%, VCU 21.7%<br />Turnover% Defense: UVA 24.2%, VCU 24%
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<h4>VCU WINS IF</h4>
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Three teams beat almost this same UVA team all of last season: WVU, Virginia Tech and UMBC. They all shot a higher percentage from deep than the Wahoos with UMBC dominating that matchup the most, outshooting UVA 12-24 from deep (50%) to 4-22 (18.2%) in the Retrievers shocking 20-point win. Two seasons ago Florida bounced UVA from the NCAA tournament with a similar showing, outshooting the Cavs 38% from deep to 6.7%. I just don't see VCU being able to only win with defense in this one. This is not a poor-shooting Texas team. The black and gold need a legit afternoon from deep to pull this off, in my opinion. Marcus Evans hit 39% of this threes as a Rice sophomore, but is at 26.1% this season. De'Riante Jenkins hit 41.8% of his threes as a VCU soph and 45.5% as a freshman but is at 36.4% this year. Michael Gilmore shot 36% from deep at FGCU last season, 38.2% his last year at VCU but is at 8.3% right now as a VCU senior. Sean Mobley shot 38% as a Rams freshman but is at 33.3% this year. You get the point. They say shooters are either hot or their due and right now we've got almost an entire roster full of guys who are due. Hopefully they find a way to cash in on that today.
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Kenpom: 69-53 VCU loss with a 7% chance of a Rams victory.
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Game tips at 1:30PM at the John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, VA
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Watch: NBC Sports Washington<br />Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&amp;pname=1248&amp;campid=header&amp;cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM &amp; 98.5 FM</a><br />Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
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Natty
Licensed Virginia Realtor and part-time basketball writer. Co-founder of VCURamNation.com and A10Talk.com.
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Mat Shelton-Eide
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