It's hard to believe it's come to this, but tonight preseason A-10 No.1 VCU looks to maintain control of eighth place in the conference standings against the nation's fifth youngest team, the UMass Minutemen. A home win by UMass tonight and Matt McCall's squad would leapfrog the Rams in the standings via what would be an equal 7-8 record, but with winner taking the head-to-head tie-breaker. The Rams fell to .500 in the conference standings following the road loss at Saint Louis and have almost locked themselves out of the A-10 top-4 and the double-bye that comes with it. From here on out it's all about securing the best four-game path through Brooklyn, which statistically most likely lives on the 6/7 line, a line that would avoid No.4 (nationally-ranked) Dayton and pair up VCU in a number of possible revenge contests the Rams would hope to win on their way to a Sunday matchup for an automatic bid at Barclays.
VCU (17-10, 7-7)
VCU (17-10, 7-7)
UMASS (12-15, 6-8)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT UMASS[/HEADING=3]
One of the nation's youngest teams, UMass was the only A-10 freshman group ranked higher than VCU's 2019 recruiting class, thanks largely to the commitment of top-100 freshman and your likely A-10 Rookie of the Year, Tre Mitchell.
The Pittsburgh native has one of the best big man rookie skill sets I can remember seeing, flashing some serious dominance in the paint at times and is averaging 19.4 points and 7.2 rebounds in conference games. Mitchell led the Minutemen in their two biggest wins of the season, scoring 25 points in UMass' home win over top-100 Duquesne and going for 24 while blocking three shots in their recent home victory over a Saint Louis team that just made easy work of the black and gold.
He can however, as rookies sometimes do, shoot UMass out of games from time to time. Mitchell was just 5-21 in a recent road scare at Fordham and went 5-14 in a 35-point loss at Davidson, going a combined 0-7 in the two contest from distance. The 6'9 freshman has taken 93 threes on the season, connecting on just 28% of his attempts. He is elite however and drawing fouls when he stays inside the arc. Mitchell's 6.1 fouls drawn per 40 currently ranks second among all A-10 players in conference play.
UMass' second most consistent scorer on the A-10s 13th-ranked offense is junior sniper, Carl Pierre. Pierre is the Minutemen's only other active double-digit scorer (12.7) thanks to an early season injury to freshman TJ Weeks (who shot a blistering 48.5% from distance prior to injury). Pierre is shooting a career-worst 30.6% from three in A-10 action, coming off a sophomore year where he hit 39.4% of his A-10 threes and a freshman campaign where he shot 45.1% from long range in conference.
As a group UMass ranks 9th in conference play in effective field goal percentage offense thanks to their three-point struggles where that sit at dead last via their current 28.5% rate.
Defensively their even worse, ranking 13th in the league in EFG% D and struggling in essentially every defensive category outside of turnover percentage/steals.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
The Rams are reeling, having lost four consecutive games for the first time since the '99-'00 season. Perhaps the good news however (if there is any there), is realistically three of those games were predictably losable for even VCU's best teams, losing on the road to two top-100 teams in Saint Louis and Richmond and the other loss coming in a close home battle to No.4 Dayton. The huge outlier there was the loss to George Mason and the major concern during the stretch has been not just that VCU lost those games, but HOW VCU lost the games.
To be blunt, the Rams looked like a MEAC team trying to compete in three of those contests, only really showing up for the huge matchup against Dayton. VCU trailed both Richmond and Saint Louis by 20+ and nearly matched that (a 17-point deficit)...at the Siegel Center...against kenpom No.169 George Mason. Oof.
VCU's three-point shooting was virtually non-existent in all of those contest and sadly, there defense was pretty much the same. VCU ranked seventh in the country last season in defensive efficiency, allowing just under 0.9 points per possession, but have dropped to 38th nationally this season at 0.93 ppp allowed and an even worse 0.97 in A-10 play.
Two huge culprits on the defensive side of the ball in A-10 play: rebounds and fouls.
VCU ranks 13th on D in A-10 free throw rate and rebound percentage.
The Rams are clearly still attempting to figure out a working rotation as well. VCU played 11 players double-digit minutes at Saint Louis (plus another eight for Jarren McAllister) and only three players 20 or more.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 71.3, UMass 68.8</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 65, UMass 71.6</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 49.3%, UMass 49%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 47.6%, UMass 51.4%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.2%, UMass 32.4%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UMass 32.9%, VCU 32.5%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UMass 49.3%, VCU 48.1%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46.3%, UMass 52.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.1, UMass 32.7</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 17.9%, UMass 19.1%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25%, UMass 20.8%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
<span style="color: #ff0000;">KEY STAT:</span> UMass has not one but TWO freshmen point guards that turn the ball over 23.5% (Sean East) and 32.1% (Kolton Mitchell) of their possessions. That is a major opportunity for the Rams.
While I love our young guys, I wanna see Marcus Evans have a good old fashioned Marcus Evans game. I wanna see him feast on freshmen point guards on D and make smart plays on offense, which is to say throw the ball down low to Marcus Santos-Silva and Co. and play inside out. I wanna see our experienced players show up and show the importance of experience in a college basketball game.
Also I wanna see us go back to playing more of the two-big look that <a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/2020/01/new-vcu-wrinkle-gives-rams-big-potential/">I wrote about</a> being so dominant in the not-long-enough sample we actually used it.
UMass starts a front line that goes 6'6 (Santos), 6'7 (Diallo) and 6'9 Mitchell, takes 60% of their shots inside the arc and is last in A-10 3p% at 28.5%. If ever there was a time to put twin tower groups in that we've seen big so effective, tonight is the night. Throw in the Douglas + Ward look that makes good looks around the rim virtually non-existent, play me some MSS & Douglas together.
[caption id="attachment_29003" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Dangerous-PNR-1024x516-1.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29003" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Dangerous-PNR-1024x516-1-300x151.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="151" /></a> Will Wade's Rams feasted on "the formula", ranking 3rd and 2nd in A-10 2p% during his time at VCU. I'm of the opinion VCU's current group can thrive off similar action.[/caption]
Related note: back during Will Wade's time we saw an often-used look that included Mo Alie-Cox and Justin Tillman on the court down low together. With speedy point guard, JeQuan Lewis, giving the Rams a dangerous pick and roll player, Wade would burry Tillman on the baseline under the basket, run the pick and roll with Alie-Cox/Lewis, then have Tillman just waiting for a wide open dunks off of passes from that via either Cox or Lewis (using his guards/wings who were deadly from the corners to spread the floor). It was easy money (see picture for the percentages via my guy, Jeff Horne) and worked again and again.
I'm of the opinion we have a group capable of doing the same thing when VCU runs two bigs together and any of their three point guard options available right now.  Wouldn't mind seeing some of that from this VCU offense that currently ranks eight in the Atlantic 10 in offensive efficiency.
Kenpom: 72-67 VCU win with a 69% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at the Mullins Center in Amherst, MA
Watch: MASN/ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
[/am4show]
One of the nation's youngest teams, UMass was the only A-10 freshman group ranked higher than VCU's 2019 recruiting class, thanks largely to the commitment of top-100 freshman and your likely A-10 Rookie of the Year, Tre Mitchell.
The Pittsburgh native has one of the best big man rookie skill sets I can remember seeing, flashing some serious dominance in the paint at times and is averaging 19.4 points and 7.2 rebounds in conference games. Mitchell led the Minutemen in their two biggest wins of the season, scoring 25 points in UMass' home win over top-100 Duquesne and going for 24 while blocking three shots in their recent home victory over a Saint Louis team that just made easy work of the black and gold.
He can however, as rookies sometimes do, shoot UMass out of games from time to time. Mitchell was just 5-21 in a recent road scare at Fordham and went 5-14 in a 35-point loss at Davidson, going a combined 0-7 in the two contest from distance. The 6'9 freshman has taken 93 threes on the season, connecting on just 28% of his attempts. He is elite however and drawing fouls when he stays inside the arc. Mitchell's 6.1 fouls drawn per 40 currently ranks second among all A-10 players in conference play.
UMass' second most consistent scorer on the A-10s 13th-ranked offense is junior sniper, Carl Pierre. Pierre is the Minutemen's only other active double-digit scorer (12.7) thanks to an early season injury to freshman TJ Weeks (who shot a blistering 48.5% from distance prior to injury). Pierre is shooting a career-worst 30.6% from three in A-10 action, coming off a sophomore year where he hit 39.4% of his A-10 threes and a freshman campaign where he shot 45.1% from long range in conference.
As a group UMass ranks 9th in conference play in effective field goal percentage offense thanks to their three-point struggles where that sit at dead last via their current 28.5% rate.
Defensively their even worse, ranking 13th in the league in EFG% D and struggling in essentially every defensive category outside of turnover percentage/steals.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
The Rams are reeling, having lost four consecutive games for the first time since the '99-'00 season. Perhaps the good news however (if there is any there), is realistically three of those games were predictably losable for even VCU's best teams, losing on the road to two top-100 teams in Saint Louis and Richmond and the other loss coming in a close home battle to No.4 Dayton. The huge outlier there was the loss to George Mason and the major concern during the stretch has been not just that VCU lost those games, but HOW VCU lost the games.
To be blunt, the Rams looked like a MEAC team trying to compete in three of those contests, only really showing up for the huge matchup against Dayton. VCU trailed both Richmond and Saint Louis by 20+ and nearly matched that (a 17-point deficit)...at the Siegel Center...against kenpom No.169 George Mason. Oof.
VCU's three-point shooting was virtually non-existent in all of those contest and sadly, there defense was pretty much the same. VCU ranked seventh in the country last season in defensive efficiency, allowing just under 0.9 points per possession, but have dropped to 38th nationally this season at 0.93 ppp allowed and an even worse 0.97 in A-10 play.
Two huge culprits on the defensive side of the ball in A-10 play: rebounds and fouls.
VCU ranks 13th on D in A-10 free throw rate and rebound percentage.
The Rams are clearly still attempting to figure out a working rotation as well. VCU played 11 players double-digit minutes at Saint Louis (plus another eight for Jarren McAllister) and only three players 20 or more.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 71.3, UMass 68.8</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 65, UMass 71.6</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 49.3%, UMass 49%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 47.6%, UMass 51.4%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.2%, UMass 32.4%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UMass 32.9%, VCU 32.5%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UMass 49.3%, VCU 48.1%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46.3%, UMass 52.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.1, UMass 32.7</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 17.9%, UMass 19.1%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25%, UMass 20.8%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
<span style="color: #ff0000;">KEY STAT:</span> UMass has not one but TWO freshmen point guards that turn the ball over 23.5% (Sean East) and 32.1% (Kolton Mitchell) of their possessions. That is a major opportunity for the Rams.
While I love our young guys, I wanna see Marcus Evans have a good old fashioned Marcus Evans game. I wanna see him feast on freshmen point guards on D and make smart plays on offense, which is to say throw the ball down low to Marcus Santos-Silva and Co. and play inside out. I wanna see our experienced players show up and show the importance of experience in a college basketball game.
Also I wanna see us go back to playing more of the two-big look that <a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/2020/01/new-vcu-wrinkle-gives-rams-big-potential/">I wrote about</a> being so dominant in the not-long-enough sample we actually used it.
UMass starts a front line that goes 6'6 (Santos), 6'7 (Diallo) and 6'9 Mitchell, takes 60% of their shots inside the arc and is last in A-10 3p% at 28.5%. If ever there was a time to put twin tower groups in that we've seen big so effective, tonight is the night. Throw in the Douglas + Ward look that makes good looks around the rim virtually non-existent, play me some MSS & Douglas together.
[caption id="attachment_29003" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Dangerous-PNR-1024x516-1.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29003" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Dangerous-PNR-1024x516-1-300x151.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="151" /></a> Will Wade's Rams feasted on "the formula", ranking 3rd and 2nd in A-10 2p% during his time at VCU. I'm of the opinion VCU's current group can thrive off similar action.[/caption]
Related note: back during Will Wade's time we saw an often-used look that included Mo Alie-Cox and Justin Tillman on the court down low together. With speedy point guard, JeQuan Lewis, giving the Rams a dangerous pick and roll player, Wade would burry Tillman on the baseline under the basket, run the pick and roll with Alie-Cox/Lewis, then have Tillman just waiting for a wide open dunks off of passes from that via either Cox or Lewis (using his guards/wings who were deadly from the corners to spread the floor). It was easy money (see picture for the percentages via my guy, Jeff Horne) and worked again and again.
I'm of the opinion we have a group capable of doing the same thing when VCU runs two bigs together and any of their three point guard options available right now.  Wouldn't mind seeing some of that from this VCU offense that currently ranks eight in the Atlantic 10 in offensive efficiency.
Kenpom: 72-67 VCU win with a 69% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at the Mullins Center in Amherst, MA
Watch: MASN/ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
[/am4show]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 71.3, UMass 68.8</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 65, UMass 71.6</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 49.3%, UMass 49%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 47.6%, UMass 51.4%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.2%, UMass 32.4%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UMass 32.9%, VCU 32.5%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UMass 49.3%, VCU 48.1%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46.3%, UMass 52.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.1, UMass 32.7</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 17.9%, UMass 19.1%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25%, UMass 20.8%</span>
