VCU heads south to Lawrence Joel Coliseum today to take on Steve Forbes' rebuilt Wake Forest team. The Demon Deacons were the highest ranked team on kenpom to NOT make the NCAA tournament field and with that presents a rather large challenge for the black and gold on the road today. One of the most efficient scoring offenses in the country versus one of the nation's stingiest defenses in a classic unstoppable force v immovable object matchup. Winner advances to the NIT quarterfinals and will be just one win away from a trip to Madison Square Garden. Here we go...
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VCU (22-9)
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VCU (22-9)
WAKE FOREST (24-9)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT WAKE FOREST[/HEADING=3]
After four consecutive losing seasons, Forbes has Wake Forest winning once again with the highest ranked Demon Deacons team since Danny Manning's one NCAA tournament group at Wake in 2017. Wake Forest hoped to sneak their way onto the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, but a quick exit in this year's ACC tournament to a mediocre to bad Boston College team effectively relegated Wake to this year's NIT where this experienced group (50th most experienced team in college hoops) will hope to make a deep run.
Wake Forest starts four seniors including Oklahoma transfer, Alondes Williams, who leads the team at 18.8 points per contest. The 6'5 point guard has stuffed stat sheets all season, leading the team in assists as well at 5.2 per contest and presents quite a tough defensive assignment for opposing point guards. He's been accompanied in the turnaround by Indiana State transfer, Jake LaRavia, a 6'9 forward averaging just shy of 15 points per game with a floor-stretching 39.7% 3-point percentage. Daivien Williamson rounds out Wake's double-digit scorers at 12.1 ppg, with the East Tennessee State transfer connecting on 40.3% of his threes on the year.
Transfer portal. Forbes got this group winning by taking advantage of it, a record that included seven kenpom top-100 wins this season highlighted by a 22-point beatdown of No.23 North Carolina and a 19-point W over No.20 Virginia Tech, both of whom are still dancing.
They did this with a balanced attack that sees the Deacs ranked top-50 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Two very positive stats for the Rams however, is Wake's turnover percentages on both sides of the ball. The Demon Deacons rank 222nd nationally in turnover percentage offense and 230th on D, a stat to watch today against VCU's havoc D that's unfortunately accompanied with a turnover-prone offense.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
Speaking of VCU turnovers, Bizarro VCU showed up in their first NIT win, turning it over just seven times against Princeton and scoring a season-high 90 points in the process, but while also giving up their second most points of the season at 79 to the Tigers. It was a version of VCU that we just haven't seen this year, which is to say an incredibly efficient offensive one, but with a defense that was far from the typical lockdown D that we've seen most games from VCU's top-10 nationally ranked defense.
VCU's "army" approach has been exchanged for a shorter bench, with the Rams playing four players over 34 minutes against Princeton and just six players double-digit minutes. That group is led by seniors Vince Williams and KeShawn Curry, with Ace Baldwin and Jayden Nunn locking down the backcourt time as well. VCU's biggest area of PT opportunity as been at the 5 where Rhoades is relying on a rotation of mostly Hason Ward and freshman Jaylen DeLoach, with grad senior Levi Stockard getting limited spot minutes. Mikeal Brown-Jones saw his time limited due to a knee sprain, but has played single-digit minutes in all these last three key contests for the Rams (at Saint Louis where VCU attempted to wrap up a regular season title, against Richmond in the A-10 tourney and against Princeton in the NIT first round).
On the season VCU had played a very deep bench and still checks in at a respectable 110th nationally in bench minutes, but that rotation has really been shortened as of late and could likely be the case today against a tough Wake Forest group.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 79.3, VCU 66.8</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 61.8, WF 70</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 56.2%, VCU 51.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.3%, WF 47.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 35%, VCU 34.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.8%, WF 32.3%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 58.8%, VCU 51.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 45.6%, WF 46.6%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 36.9, VCU 32.5</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 19%, VCU 21.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 24.9%, WF 17.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
The seventh most efficient shooting offense in the nation (Wake) versus the eighth most efficient defense in terms of effective field goal percentage. This is what Forbes' teams do. His last four (of five) teams at East Tennessee checked in at No.32 or higher in that stat, which he was able to ride to two NCAA tournament bids (although one, 2020, was canceled via COVID) and just an overall dominant record in the Southern Conference. Forbes can flat out coach, so Rhoades and Co. have their work cutout for them in trying to figure out how to slow down the Demon Deacon offense today. After that it's just really limiting what has killed VCU all season long: turnovers and fouls. We saw what VCU's offense is capable of when they don't give the other team the ball 1/3rd of their possessions (a 90-point offensive breakout), so that level of discipline seems absolutely vital today on the road against a team that ultimately thinks they belonged in the NCAA tournament.
Kenpom: 73-68 VCU loss with a 31% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 4PM at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Winston-Salem, NC
Watch: ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
After four consecutive losing seasons, Forbes has Wake Forest winning once again with the highest ranked Demon Deacons team since Danny Manning's one NCAA tournament group at Wake in 2017. Wake Forest hoped to sneak their way onto the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, but a quick exit in this year's ACC tournament to a mediocre to bad Boston College team effectively relegated Wake to this year's NIT where this experienced group (50th most experienced team in college hoops) will hope to make a deep run.
Wake Forest starts four seniors including Oklahoma transfer, Alondes Williams, who leads the team at 18.8 points per contest. The 6'5 point guard has stuffed stat sheets all season, leading the team in assists as well at 5.2 per contest and presents quite a tough defensive assignment for opposing point guards. He's been accompanied in the turnaround by Indiana State transfer, Jake LaRavia, a 6'9 forward averaging just shy of 15 points per game with a floor-stretching 39.7% 3-point percentage. Daivien Williamson rounds out Wake's double-digit scorers at 12.1 ppg, with the East Tennessee State transfer connecting on 40.3% of his threes on the year.
Transfer portal. Forbes got this group winning by taking advantage of it, a record that included seven kenpom top-100 wins this season highlighted by a 22-point beatdown of No.23 North Carolina and a 19-point W over No.20 Virginia Tech, both of whom are still dancing.
They did this with a balanced attack that sees the Deacs ranked top-50 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Two very positive stats for the Rams however, is Wake's turnover percentages on both sides of the ball. The Demon Deacons rank 222nd nationally in turnover percentage offense and 230th on D, a stat to watch today against VCU's havoc D that's unfortunately accompanied with a turnover-prone offense.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
Speaking of VCU turnovers, Bizarro VCU showed up in their first NIT win, turning it over just seven times against Princeton and scoring a season-high 90 points in the process, but while also giving up their second most points of the season at 79 to the Tigers. It was a version of VCU that we just haven't seen this year, which is to say an incredibly efficient offensive one, but with a defense that was far from the typical lockdown D that we've seen most games from VCU's top-10 nationally ranked defense.
VCU's "army" approach has been exchanged for a shorter bench, with the Rams playing four players over 34 minutes against Princeton and just six players double-digit minutes. That group is led by seniors Vince Williams and KeShawn Curry, with Ace Baldwin and Jayden Nunn locking down the backcourt time as well. VCU's biggest area of PT opportunity as been at the 5 where Rhoades is relying on a rotation of mostly Hason Ward and freshman Jaylen DeLoach, with grad senior Levi Stockard getting limited spot minutes. Mikeal Brown-Jones saw his time limited due to a knee sprain, but has played single-digit minutes in all these last three key contests for the Rams (at Saint Louis where VCU attempted to wrap up a regular season title, against Richmond in the A-10 tourney and against Princeton in the NIT first round).
On the season VCU had played a very deep bench and still checks in at a respectable 110th nationally in bench minutes, but that rotation has really been shortened as of late and could likely be the case today against a tough Wake Forest group.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 79.3, VCU 66.8</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 61.8, WF 70</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 56.2%, VCU 51.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.3%, WF 47.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 35%, VCU 34.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.8%, WF 32.3%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 58.8%, VCU 51.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 45.6%, WF 46.6%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 36.9, VCU 32.5</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 19%, VCU 21.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 24.9%, WF 17.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
The seventh most efficient shooting offense in the nation (Wake) versus the eighth most efficient defense in terms of effective field goal percentage. This is what Forbes' teams do. His last four (of five) teams at East Tennessee checked in at No.32 or higher in that stat, which he was able to ride to two NCAA tournament bids (although one, 2020, was canceled via COVID) and just an overall dominant record in the Southern Conference. Forbes can flat out coach, so Rhoades and Co. have their work cutout for them in trying to figure out how to slow down the Demon Deacon offense today. After that it's just really limiting what has killed VCU all season long: turnovers and fouls. We saw what VCU's offense is capable of when they don't give the other team the ball 1/3rd of their possessions (a 90-point offensive breakout), so that level of discipline seems absolutely vital today on the road against a team that ultimately thinks they belonged in the NCAA tournament.
Kenpom: 73-68 VCU loss with a 31% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 4PM at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Winston-Salem, NC
Watch: ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 79.3, VCU 66.8</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 61.8, WF 70</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 56.2%, VCU 51.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.3%, WF 47.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 35%, VCU 34.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.8%, WF 32.3%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 58.8%, VCU 51.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 45.6%, WF 46.6%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 36.9, VCU 32.5</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">WF 19%, VCU 21.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 24.9%, WF 17.4%</span>
