After starting the season with back-to-back games against lower level opponents in Manhattan and Morgan State, the Rams head to Brooklyn to tip up the Legends Classic against Bobby Hurley's Arizona State squad, a Pac-12 opponent hoping to get back to NCAA tournament level after consecutive losing seasons that have folks questioning how long the Duke legend will remain at the helm of the Sun Devils program. A win would notch VCU an early season top-100 victory while sending the black and gold to the Legends Classic Championship tomorrow against the winner of the Michigan v Pitt game.
VCU (2-0)
VCU (2-0)
ARIZONA STATE (2-1)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT ARIZONA STATE[/HEADING=3]
It has been an interesting start to the season for ASU to say the least. After narrowly surviving a scare from Tarleton State (kenpom No.203) in their regular season home opener, 62-59, the Sun Devils made easy work of Northern Arizona before dropping a surprising road contest at SWAC member, Texas Southern (kenpom No.236). Nothing about that stretch of games exactly inspires confidence from a program that has posted back-to-back losing seasons including .500 and sub-.500 seasons in the mediocre Pac-12. A consistently major issue over that stretch has been ASU's inability to efficiently put the ball in the hoop. State is on pace for their fourth consecutive season with an effective field goal percentage blow 50% (that ain't great). They've been incredibly inefficient at scoring inside the arc and can't bail themselves out beyond it, needing a bit of a "havoc" style of defense to help carry them to victory in most games.
In short, ASU has been a bit of a poor man's VCU as of late. ASU plays a good chunk of their roster, struggles with offensive consistency and with fouling on the other side of the ball. They turn the ball over a good chunk of their offensive possession, but do a good job of taking it back on D.
Both this year's and last year's groups have done a good job of blocking shots as well with a number of players capable of sending shots into the third row. This season that group is perhaps led by Nevada transfer, Warren Washington, a 7' center who leads the team in blocks percentage, but also has scored in double figured his past two contest, something he did consistently with the Wolf Pack his two prior seasons.
On the season however, three Sun Devils are averaging double-digit scoring with that group being headlined by 6'1 point guard, Frankie Collins. Collins leads the team in points (16.3), assists (5) and steals (2) per contest, but also has more turnovers than assists in two of his three contests.
Tarleton State, a third-year DI team, actually ranked fifth nationally in defensive turnover percentage this past season, one spot behind VCU. Their defense this year was able to turn Collins over six times and ASU over 21 times as a whole. That has the potential to foreshadow a bit of what we may see tonight when havoc travels to Brooklyn for this evening's contest.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
[caption id="attachment_31850" align="alignright" width="1024"]<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/89F2AC6A-77B3-44D1-A1BB-467838516361.jpeg"><img class="size-large wp-image-31850" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/89F2AC6A-77B3-44D1-A1BB-467838516361-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brandon Johns Jr. flexes after making a big play against the Manhattan Jaspers." width="1024" height="683" /></a> Through two games to start the season, Michigan transfer, Brandon Johns Jr, has been Mr. Consistency for the Black & Gold.[/caption]
In their two regular season contests, VCU has been a bit Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde from half to half. Against Manhattan to open the season, they outscored the Jaspers by 18 points in the first before a 1-point deficit the second half of play, resulting in the 17-point victory. The following contest against Morgan State, the Rams stumbled a bit out the gate, leading their MEAC opponent by just a point at half time, but came out in the second and extended that to an eventual 15-point win (seemingly WITHOUT hitting any of their free throws). So in those two samples we've seen VCU's ability to both downright ordinary to downright scary. Which version will show up in Brooklyn?
Either way, one person who has showed up early and consistently for the Rams is Michigan transfer, Brandon Johns Jr. The 6'9 stretch 4 (and now occasional 5) is averaging 14 points per game AND, perhaps more importantly, has done so with consistent efficiency, albeit in just two contests.
Johns has posted offensive ratings of 112 and 166 (that's great) in his first two games as a Ram, has a 67.3% true shooting percentage (and early career-best) and has just one turnover in his 53 total minutes of action. That last part is something VCU has desperately needed as well with the Rams turnover the ball over more than once every four trips down the court, currently ranked the black and gold at 333rd nationally in turnover percentage offense.
Johns has joined a core group of Ace Baldwin, Jamir Watkins, Jalen DeLoach and Jaden Nunn as the team's 20+ minute per game hoopers, but has been the most consistent by far of that quintet thanks to his ability to limit turnovers. The other four have shown flashes of greatness in other ways (Baldwin's passing, Watkins' versatility, DeLoach's post presence, Nunn's defense), but each has posted at least four turnovers in a single contest this season.
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers...it is almost everything with this group, both the source of pride defensively and the major weakness on offense. The Rams' ability to clean that up gives this team a ceiling that is nothing less than a NCAA team and perhaps as good as a Sweet 16 or better group. If they can't, they are capable of going 0-2 in Brooklyn with a tough road contest at Memphis looming afterwards.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 71, ASU 70.7</span>
Scoring Defense:<span style="color: #339966;"> VCU 55, ASU 64.7</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 53.4%, ASU 45.2%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 43.1%, VCU 45.2%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.9%, ASU 31.2%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 25.4%, VCU 31.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 54.2%, ASU 44.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.4%, ASU 45.5%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 45, VCU 36</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 22.1%, VCU 25.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 32.6%, VCU 20.7%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Again, it could all come down to the turnover battle. On that note, I recently took a bit of a numbers dive to see what the difference between the Mike Rhoades era and the Shaka Smart and Will Wade eras were and the stat that stuck out above all was offensive turnover percentage. Let's compare two teams to highlight that example: last year's VCU Rams and the 2014 VCU Rams.
Last year's VCU Rams ranked seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficient, limiting opponents to 0.888 points per possession. They actually shot the ball well too, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 51.4%. The 2014 Rams who earned a 5-seed in the NCAA tournament that year (and were ranked during the season) ranked sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but actually allowed a little more points per possession at 0.894. Offensively they did not shoot the ball particularly well, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. So how did a team that defended better and shot the ball better end up in the NIT and the other a 5-seed in the NCAA tourney and ranked? Well, one key difference was turnover percentage on offense.
Last year's Rams ranked 341st nationally in TO% offense, giving the ball up without a shot on 21.9% of their possessions. The 2014 team was by no means elite in that stat, but ranked 87th nationally their with a 17.2% offensive TO% (they also rebounded well offensively). But to hammer home my point, all but one of the Shaka-coached teams were top-50 nationally in turnover % offense, the outlier still being top-100 still. Wade's two ranked 60th and 111th in TO% offense. Every single one of Smart and Wade's teams finished in the NCAA tournament except the 2010 Rams, Smart's first team (that won the CBI). Rhoades' teams have ranked 323rd (this year so far), 341st, 263rd, 96th 277th and 199th.
So not only does VCU win tonight if they clean up the turnovers offensively while keeping the pressure on D, but they win all season long and the seasons following that. It has been one of, if not THE main difference in the Mike Rhoades era versus the coaches who came before him.
Kenpom: 68-67 VCU loss with a 47% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 8:30PM at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY
Watch: ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
[/am4show]
It has been an interesting start to the season for ASU to say the least. After narrowly surviving a scare from Tarleton State (kenpom No.203) in their regular season home opener, 62-59, the Sun Devils made easy work of Northern Arizona before dropping a surprising road contest at SWAC member, Texas Southern (kenpom No.236). Nothing about that stretch of games exactly inspires confidence from a program that has posted back-to-back losing seasons including .500 and sub-.500 seasons in the mediocre Pac-12. A consistently major issue over that stretch has been ASU's inability to efficiently put the ball in the hoop. State is on pace for their fourth consecutive season with an effective field goal percentage blow 50% (that ain't great). They've been incredibly inefficient at scoring inside the arc and can't bail themselves out beyond it, needing a bit of a "havoc" style of defense to help carry them to victory in most games.
In short, ASU has been a bit of a poor man's VCU as of late. ASU plays a good chunk of their roster, struggles with offensive consistency and with fouling on the other side of the ball. They turn the ball over a good chunk of their offensive possession, but do a good job of taking it back on D.
Both this year's and last year's groups have done a good job of blocking shots as well with a number of players capable of sending shots into the third row. This season that group is perhaps led by Nevada transfer, Warren Washington, a 7' center who leads the team in blocks percentage, but also has scored in double figured his past two contest, something he did consistently with the Wolf Pack his two prior seasons.
On the season however, three Sun Devils are averaging double-digit scoring with that group being headlined by 6'1 point guard, Frankie Collins. Collins leads the team in points (16.3), assists (5) and steals (2) per contest, but also has more turnovers than assists in two of his three contests.
Tarleton State, a third-year DI team, actually ranked fifth nationally in defensive turnover percentage this past season, one spot behind VCU. Their defense this year was able to turn Collins over six times and ASU over 21 times as a whole. That has the potential to foreshadow a bit of what we may see tonight when havoc travels to Brooklyn for this evening's contest.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
[caption id="attachment_31850" align="alignright" width="1024"]<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/89F2AC6A-77B3-44D1-A1BB-467838516361.jpeg"><img class="size-large wp-image-31850" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/89F2AC6A-77B3-44D1-A1BB-467838516361-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brandon Johns Jr. flexes after making a big play against the Manhattan Jaspers." width="1024" height="683" /></a> Through two games to start the season, Michigan transfer, Brandon Johns Jr, has been Mr. Consistency for the Black & Gold.[/caption]
In their two regular season contests, VCU has been a bit Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde from half to half. Against Manhattan to open the season, they outscored the Jaspers by 18 points in the first before a 1-point deficit the second half of play, resulting in the 17-point victory. The following contest against Morgan State, the Rams stumbled a bit out the gate, leading their MEAC opponent by just a point at half time, but came out in the second and extended that to an eventual 15-point win (seemingly WITHOUT hitting any of their free throws). So in those two samples we've seen VCU's ability to both downright ordinary to downright scary. Which version will show up in Brooklyn?
Either way, one person who has showed up early and consistently for the Rams is Michigan transfer, Brandon Johns Jr. The 6'9 stretch 4 (and now occasional 5) is averaging 14 points per game AND, perhaps more importantly, has done so with consistent efficiency, albeit in just two contests.
Johns has posted offensive ratings of 112 and 166 (that's great) in his first two games as a Ram, has a 67.3% true shooting percentage (and early career-best) and has just one turnover in his 53 total minutes of action. That last part is something VCU has desperately needed as well with the Rams turnover the ball over more than once every four trips down the court, currently ranked the black and gold at 333rd nationally in turnover percentage offense.
Johns has joined a core group of Ace Baldwin, Jamir Watkins, Jalen DeLoach and Jaden Nunn as the team's 20+ minute per game hoopers, but has been the most consistent by far of that quintet thanks to his ability to limit turnovers. The other four have shown flashes of greatness in other ways (Baldwin's passing, Watkins' versatility, DeLoach's post presence, Nunn's defense), but each has posted at least four turnovers in a single contest this season.
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers...it is almost everything with this group, both the source of pride defensively and the major weakness on offense. The Rams' ability to clean that up gives this team a ceiling that is nothing less than a NCAA team and perhaps as good as a Sweet 16 or better group. If they can't, they are capable of going 0-2 in Brooklyn with a tough road contest at Memphis looming afterwards.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 71, ASU 70.7</span>
Scoring Defense:<span style="color: #339966;"> VCU 55, ASU 64.7</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 53.4%, ASU 45.2%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 43.1%, VCU 45.2%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.9%, ASU 31.2%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 25.4%, VCU 31.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 54.2%, ASU 44.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.4%, ASU 45.5%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 45, VCU 36</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 22.1%, VCU 25.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 32.6%, VCU 20.7%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Again, it could all come down to the turnover battle. On that note, I recently took a bit of a numbers dive to see what the difference between the Mike Rhoades era and the Shaka Smart and Will Wade eras were and the stat that stuck out above all was offensive turnover percentage. Let's compare two teams to highlight that example: last year's VCU Rams and the 2014 VCU Rams.
Last year's VCU Rams ranked seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficient, limiting opponents to 0.888 points per possession. They actually shot the ball well too, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 51.4%. The 2014 Rams who earned a 5-seed in the NCAA tournament that year (and were ranked during the season) ranked sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but actually allowed a little more points per possession at 0.894. Offensively they did not shoot the ball particularly well, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. So how did a team that defended better and shot the ball better end up in the NIT and the other a 5-seed in the NCAA tourney and ranked? Well, one key difference was turnover percentage on offense.
Last year's Rams ranked 341st nationally in TO% offense, giving the ball up without a shot on 21.9% of their possessions. The 2014 team was by no means elite in that stat, but ranked 87th nationally their with a 17.2% offensive TO% (they also rebounded well offensively). But to hammer home my point, all but one of the Shaka-coached teams were top-50 nationally in turnover % offense, the outlier still being top-100 still. Wade's two ranked 60th and 111th in TO% offense. Every single one of Smart and Wade's teams finished in the NCAA tournament except the 2010 Rams, Smart's first team (that won the CBI). Rhoades' teams have ranked 323rd (this year so far), 341st, 263rd, 96th 277th and 199th.
So not only does VCU win tonight if they clean up the turnovers offensively while keeping the pressure on D, but they win all season long and the seasons following that. It has been one of, if not THE main difference in the Mike Rhoades era versus the coaches who came before him.
Kenpom: 68-67 VCU loss with a 47% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 8:30PM at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY
Watch: ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
[/am4show]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 71, ASU 70.7</span>
Scoring Defense:<span style="color: #339966;"> VCU 55, ASU 64.7</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 53.4%, ASU 45.2%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 43.1%, VCU 45.2%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.9%, ASU 31.2%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 25.4%, VCU 31.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 54.2%, ASU 44.2%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.4%, ASU 45.5%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 45, VCU 36</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ASU 22.1%, VCU 25.8%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 32.6%, VCU 20.7%</span>
