It's been about a month since these two last tipped it up in their Atlantic 10 opener, the Rams stealing a tough road win thanks to Ace Baldwin's late-game heroics. The sting of that last game no doubt still feels fresh for the Flyers heading into tonight's battle, a key top-half A-10 contest that would go a long way toward the Rams Atlantic 10 tourney double-bye hopes in DC in just over a month.
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VCU (13-6, 6-2)
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VCU (13-6, 6-2)
DAYTON (14-7, 6-2)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT THE FLYERS[/HEADING=3]
In conference action Dayton has been a borderline mirror image of the Rams. Hot or cold offensively over their first eight games, the Flyers have used an elite level of defense to keep pace with the Rams at 6-2 in conference, checking in at No.1 in conference action in defensive efficiency. They just outpace the Rams there, as do they offensively where they land at seventh, just ahead of VCU sitting at eighth in the league. It's no surprise then that the last matchup between these two came down to the final seconds.
Since then the Flyers added just one more loss, a 1-point L in Fairfax against Kim English's rising George Mason team (who also spanked a St. Bonaventure squad that spanked VCU). The Flyers also picked up tough wins over Saint Louis (a 5-point home W) and St. Bonaventure (a dominant 18-point home win) and held off a challenge against a pesky Rhode Island team in their most recent win, a 2-point defense-led UD Arena victory.
Dayton has been led by their extremely talented 1-2 freshman punch of Mali Smith (brother of Dayton legend, Scoochie Smith) and big man DaRon Holmes, who is all but a lock to win A-10 Rookie of the Year honors this season. The duo combine to average 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds. They are two of three Flyers averaging double-digit scoring, joined by Georgia transfer, Toumani Camara, who is chipping in 10.5 for the Flyers, almost all of which comes inside the arc.
Ther Flyers are top-75 in both offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage, their biggest blemish, like VCU, coming in the form of a high-turnover offense that ultimately handcuffs their efficiency. Almost every key contributor for Anthony Grant's squad is turning the ball over roughly 20% of their possessions, collectively landing UD at 322nd nationally in offensive turnover percentage at 21.4%. Those struggles have carried over into A-10 play where they rank 13th in-conference in turnover percentage offense. They turned it over 15 times in the last matchup with VCU.
INJURY NOTE: Dayton will be without fifth-leading scorer, Elijah Weaver, tonight via wrist injury. The USC transfer is averaging 7.3 ppg and is a 35% three-point shooter.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
Like the Flyers, VCU keeps finding ways to come up with wins despite some of their offensive issues. VCU's aggressive defense has bothered their A-10 opponents, but has also sent the opposition to the free throw line way too often. Still, the Rams deep bench allows them to live with a little foul trouble if it means playing an extreme level of aggressive D we statistically have really never seen from any other VCU squad.
Offensively the Rams are shockingly leading the conference in three-point percentage (in conference games), connecting on 40.9% of their threes through almost half of the conference season. That life via three has helped negate VCU's giant turnover problem, as well as their inability to generate easy buckets both inside the arc and at the free throw stripe. The Rams are finishing just 48.4% of their twos in conference and rank 12th in the A-10 in free throw rate.
The black and gold are led by Vince Williams who is on a serious pace to potentially claim and A-10 Player of the Year award. Williams is almost top-10 in every statistical category you can think of, flashing a level of versatility that you rarely see within the conference.
Williams is getting some serious help from sophomore, Ace Baldwin, as well. The Rams point guard is hitting an absurd 50% from while checking in at seventh in-conference in assist rate and tops on the other side of the ball in steals percentage. He has been a pest for opposing teams.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 68, VCU 63.5</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 58.9, UD 60.7</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 52.8%, VCU 49.7%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 42.4%, UD 47.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%:  <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.3%, UD 33.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.6%, UD 33.1%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 54.1%, VCU 48.9%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.5%, UD 45.9%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.6, VCU 32.2</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 21.4%, VCU 21.9%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 26.4%, UD 18.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
The Rams are shooting the leather off the ball from distance in A-10 play, so a continuation of that tonight plus the usual lockdown defense won't hurt in their quest to move to 7-2 in-conference, but I think one huge key in continuing that type of success from deep is in VCU passing up "meh" shots for good or great shots. There have been times this year where a frustrating amount of VCU offense possessions seemed destined for reckless drives to the basket. When the Rams mix a little patience into their game and a lot less "little league hero", they become a much more dangerous and well-rounded team, one capable quite frankly of running through the conference even. I think that's just a huge key tonight. Be selective on offense...extremely selective, even to the point of a shot clock violation if it beats the alternative of a reckless turnover that results in a Flyers fast break and easy points. Win in the 60s or even 50s if you have to, but I just think a picky Rams offense is a much better one and can go a long way toward victory late tonight.
Kenpom: 59-55 VCU win with a 65% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 9PM at the Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
In conference action Dayton has been a borderline mirror image of the Rams. Hot or cold offensively over their first eight games, the Flyers have used an elite level of defense to keep pace with the Rams at 6-2 in conference, checking in at No.1 in conference action in defensive efficiency. They just outpace the Rams there, as do they offensively where they land at seventh, just ahead of VCU sitting at eighth in the league. It's no surprise then that the last matchup between these two came down to the final seconds.
Since then the Flyers added just one more loss, a 1-point L in Fairfax against Kim English's rising George Mason team (who also spanked a St. Bonaventure squad that spanked VCU). The Flyers also picked up tough wins over Saint Louis (a 5-point home W) and St. Bonaventure (a dominant 18-point home win) and held off a challenge against a pesky Rhode Island team in their most recent win, a 2-point defense-led UD Arena victory.
Dayton has been led by their extremely talented 1-2 freshman punch of Mali Smith (brother of Dayton legend, Scoochie Smith) and big man DaRon Holmes, who is all but a lock to win A-10 Rookie of the Year honors this season. The duo combine to average 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds. They are two of three Flyers averaging double-digit scoring, joined by Georgia transfer, Toumani Camara, who is chipping in 10.5 for the Flyers, almost all of which comes inside the arc.
Ther Flyers are top-75 in both offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage, their biggest blemish, like VCU, coming in the form of a high-turnover offense that ultimately handcuffs their efficiency. Almost every key contributor for Anthony Grant's squad is turning the ball over roughly 20% of their possessions, collectively landing UD at 322nd nationally in offensive turnover percentage at 21.4%. Those struggles have carried over into A-10 play where they rank 13th in-conference in turnover percentage offense. They turned it over 15 times in the last matchup with VCU.
INJURY NOTE: Dayton will be without fifth-leading scorer, Elijah Weaver, tonight via wrist injury. The USC transfer is averaging 7.3 ppg and is a 35% three-point shooter.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
Like the Flyers, VCU keeps finding ways to come up with wins despite some of their offensive issues. VCU's aggressive defense has bothered their A-10 opponents, but has also sent the opposition to the free throw line way too often. Still, the Rams deep bench allows them to live with a little foul trouble if it means playing an extreme level of aggressive D we statistically have really never seen from any other VCU squad.
Offensively the Rams are shockingly leading the conference in three-point percentage (in conference games), connecting on 40.9% of their threes through almost half of the conference season. That life via three has helped negate VCU's giant turnover problem, as well as their inability to generate easy buckets both inside the arc and at the free throw stripe. The Rams are finishing just 48.4% of their twos in conference and rank 12th in the A-10 in free throw rate.
The black and gold are led by Vince Williams who is on a serious pace to potentially claim and A-10 Player of the Year award. Williams is almost top-10 in every statistical category you can think of, flashing a level of versatility that you rarely see within the conference.
Williams is getting some serious help from sophomore, Ace Baldwin, as well. The Rams point guard is hitting an absurd 50% from while checking in at seventh in-conference in assist rate and tops on the other side of the ball in steals percentage. He has been a pest for opposing teams.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 68, VCU 63.5</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 58.9, UD 60.7</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 52.8%, VCU 49.7%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 42.4%, UD 47.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%:  <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.3%, UD 33.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.6%, UD 33.1%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 54.1%, VCU 48.9%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.5%, UD 45.9%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.6, VCU 32.2</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 21.4%, VCU 21.9%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 26.4%, UD 18.4%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
The Rams are shooting the leather off the ball from distance in A-10 play, so a continuation of that tonight plus the usual lockdown defense won't hurt in their quest to move to 7-2 in-conference, but I think one huge key in continuing that type of success from deep is in VCU passing up "meh" shots for good or great shots. There have been times this year where a frustrating amount of VCU offense possessions seemed destined for reckless drives to the basket. When the Rams mix a little patience into their game and a lot less "little league hero", they become a much more dangerous and well-rounded team, one capable quite frankly of running through the conference even. I think that's just a huge key tonight. Be selective on offense...extremely selective, even to the point of a shot clock violation if it beats the alternative of a reckless turnover that results in a Flyers fast break and easy points. Win in the 60s or even 50s if you have to, but I just think a picky Rams offense is a much better one and can go a long way toward victory late tonight.
Kenpom: 59-55 VCU win with a 65% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 9PM at the Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 68, VCU 63.5</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 58.9, UD 60.7</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 52.8%, VCU 49.7%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 42.4%, UD 47.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%:  <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.3%, UD 33.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.6%, UD 33.1%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 54.1%, VCU 48.9%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.5%, UD 45.9%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 35.6, VCU 32.2</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UD 21.4%, VCU 21.9%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 26.4%, UD 18.4%</span>
