The Rams welcome Keith Dambrot and his Duquesne Dukes to the Siegel Center tonight for what is at least on paper the last scheduled game at the Stu this season (non-NCAA tournament post season play could of course change that). The black and gold will celebrate their large senior class during tonight's Senior Night edition of VCU hoops and with a win would put themselves won victory away from playing themselves back into the top half of the conference and a more favorable path through next week's Atlantic 10 tournament in Brooklyn.
VCU (18-11, 8-8)
VCU (18-11, 8-8)
DUQUESNE (20-8, 10-6)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT DUQUESNE[/HEADING=3]
The Dukes returned almost every piece from last season's improved squad that went 10-8 in conference play and are a year older at essentially every position. Talented sophomore wing, Eric Williams, transferred to Oregon, but the rest of Duquesne's talented sophomore class aged up and is now in position to compete for a top-4 bid in this year's A-10 tournament with just two games left to play.
Duquesne lost their only contest between them and the Rams last year, falling 80-74 in Pittsburgh, but played that game without starting point guard, Sincere Carry. They'll get a chance tonight to repay the favor against a VCU squad that is banged up heading into the rematch, the Rams missing wing De'Riante who is taking a break from basketball for an unknown health reason, will be without big man Corey Douglas and most likely starting point guard Marcus Evans as well and are waiting for Vince Williams to return from a day-to-day leg issue.
The Dukes are statistically improved almost across the board from last season's team, particularly on defense. Duquesne ranked 190th nationally in defensive efficiency last season but are currently sniffing the top-100 at No.108 on the season.
Their biggest issue returning from last season as been inconsistent three-point shooting. Last year's Dukes ranked 278th nationally behind the arc, connecting on 32.2% of their attempts from distance. The good news is they're up to 254th this season, but having done so with actually a worse rate, connecting on just 31.7% of their attempts this year.
Last season's top-scorer against VCU, Tavian Dunn-Martin (21 points, 4-6 from distance), has been the Dukes main bit of consistency from downtown, connecting on a team-high, but very mediocre 34.6% of his attempts (up to 36.1% in conference games). Outside of TDM and perhaps sophomore, Lamar Norman (35.6% from three in A-10 play), Duquesne has a number of players dragging that overall percentage down, particularly 6'11 stretch-5 Utah Valley transfer, Baylee Steele, who has shot 31.8% on 44 attempts in conference action.
The Dukes have a number of very capable scorers highlighted by their three double-digit scorers on the season. That group is led by 6'5 bully wing, Marcus Weathers, who is averaging team-highs in both points (14.4) and rebounds (7.9). Weathers is just outpacing Cary (12.6 ppg), who is also the team's most played player and leading assist man at 5.2 per contest. That duo is joined by 6'8 240 center, Michael Hughes, arguably the A-10 best defender and is chipping in 10.2 points per contest for the Dukes so far this season.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
The banged up Rams have dealt with a good bit of diversity both on and off the court this season and with that find themselves at a -- let's be honest -- very disappointing 8-8 record in conference play and well off the NCAA tournament bubble a season after winning the conference convincingly with essentially the exact same group.
With that, the pressure seems to be almost 100% off and perhaps -- if Saturday's game is any indication -- VCU will now play with a level joy they seem to have lacked all season long.
[caption id="attachment_29046" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/VCU09643.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29046" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/VCU09643-300x202.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="202" /></a> Hasan Ward scored 10 points, eight of which came off of dunks, in VCU's recent blowout of GW[/caption]
A good bit of that joy appears to be coming from a freshman group that has statistically shined almost all year (in terms of advanced analytics), but for all but about one of those players, Bones Hyland, have been buried on the bench by VCU's statistically underachieving experienced core.
Bones Hyland has logged big minutes this year, but his classmates, Tre Clark, Jarren McAllister and particularly Hasan Ward, each shined a bit and logged double-digit minutes in the Rams recent blowout win over GW. Hyland chipped in a typical Hyland performance of 13 points on 50% shooting with three assists and saw fellow point guard, Tre Clark, notch three assists as well, the duo finding sophomore KeShawn Curry and freshman Ward via some ridiculous dimes including a Clark almost-half court assist to Curry that made it's way into the Sports Center top-10 plays. Several of the duo's assists found Ward who had eight points off of assisted dunks for the career-high 10-point evening.
Three of the Ram's four scholarship freshman (Hyland, Ward and McAllister) rank top-5 on the team in player efficiency rating and this deep into the season all check in to the top-6 in overall box plus/minus as well.
That's great for the Rams' future.
What will happen during the Rams' present may be anyone's guess, but so far VCU has yet to win a game they were not favored to win by kenpom's computers (but have dropped several they were favored to win), meaning the black and gold are on pace to finish 9-9 in conference as they are favored to win tonight before losing on Friday at Davidson, then will head into the A-10 tournament where they will be favored to win their first matchup before falling to Dayton in a Friday noon game.
Can VCU buck that trend and if so, will it be the Rams' youth that gets it done or will VCU get healthy and see a senior bounce-back?
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #999999;">DUQ 71.6, VCU 70.7</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 64.3, DUQ 65.8</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">VCU 51.3%, DUQ 49.3%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 47.6%, DUQ 47.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.5%, DUQ 31.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">DUQ 30.1%, VCU 33.4%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">DUQ 54.2%, VCU 47.8%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46.3%, DUQ 49.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #999999;">DUQ 34.3, VCU 34</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 17.6%, DUQ 18.4%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 24.9%, DUQ 20.2%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
I think it's basically gotta be the GW blueprint, but against a statistically tougher opponent.
The Rams winning the paint would go a long way toward a crucial win tonight. VCU's shot selection in the win over the Colonials (a ton of "high percentage" shots in the form of basically a dunk contest) was the best bit of VCU ball movement and shot selection I've seen from this group in a long time. They replaced blind rushed hook shots out of the post and fadeaway "layups" with dunks and dunks and dunks and dunks...and wide open feet-set threes. VCU has to have that type of shot selection tonight (paging Mr. Ward) and an off night for the Dukes from distance wouldn't hurt either (Duquesne takes 42.8% of their shots from beyond the arc).
Kenpom: 71-65 VCU win with an 70% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at the Start C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: MASN
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
[/am4show]
The Dukes returned almost every piece from last season's improved squad that went 10-8 in conference play and are a year older at essentially every position. Talented sophomore wing, Eric Williams, transferred to Oregon, but the rest of Duquesne's talented sophomore class aged up and is now in position to compete for a top-4 bid in this year's A-10 tournament with just two games left to play.
Duquesne lost their only contest between them and the Rams last year, falling 80-74 in Pittsburgh, but played that game without starting point guard, Sincere Carry. They'll get a chance tonight to repay the favor against a VCU squad that is banged up heading into the rematch, the Rams missing wing De'Riante who is taking a break from basketball for an unknown health reason, will be without big man Corey Douglas and most likely starting point guard Marcus Evans as well and are waiting for Vince Williams to return from a day-to-day leg issue.
The Dukes are statistically improved almost across the board from last season's team, particularly on defense. Duquesne ranked 190th nationally in defensive efficiency last season but are currently sniffing the top-100 at No.108 on the season.
Their biggest issue returning from last season as been inconsistent three-point shooting. Last year's Dukes ranked 278th nationally behind the arc, connecting on 32.2% of their attempts from distance. The good news is they're up to 254th this season, but having done so with actually a worse rate, connecting on just 31.7% of their attempts this year.
Last season's top-scorer against VCU, Tavian Dunn-Martin (21 points, 4-6 from distance), has been the Dukes main bit of consistency from downtown, connecting on a team-high, but very mediocre 34.6% of his attempts (up to 36.1% in conference games). Outside of TDM and perhaps sophomore, Lamar Norman (35.6% from three in A-10 play), Duquesne has a number of players dragging that overall percentage down, particularly 6'11 stretch-5 Utah Valley transfer, Baylee Steele, who has shot 31.8% on 44 attempts in conference action.
The Dukes have a number of very capable scorers highlighted by their three double-digit scorers on the season. That group is led by 6'5 bully wing, Marcus Weathers, who is averaging team-highs in both points (14.4) and rebounds (7.9). Weathers is just outpacing Cary (12.6 ppg), who is also the team's most played player and leading assist man at 5.2 per contest. That duo is joined by 6'8 240 center, Michael Hughes, arguably the A-10 best defender and is chipping in 10.2 points per contest for the Dukes so far this season.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
The banged up Rams have dealt with a good bit of diversity both on and off the court this season and with that find themselves at a -- let's be honest -- very disappointing 8-8 record in conference play and well off the NCAA tournament bubble a season after winning the conference convincingly with essentially the exact same group.
With that, the pressure seems to be almost 100% off and perhaps -- if Saturday's game is any indication -- VCU will now play with a level joy they seem to have lacked all season long.
[caption id="attachment_29046" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/VCU09643.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29046" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/VCU09643-300x202.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="202" /></a> Hasan Ward scored 10 points, eight of which came off of dunks, in VCU's recent blowout of GW[/caption]
A good bit of that joy appears to be coming from a freshman group that has statistically shined almost all year (in terms of advanced analytics), but for all but about one of those players, Bones Hyland, have been buried on the bench by VCU's statistically underachieving experienced core.
Bones Hyland has logged big minutes this year, but his classmates, Tre Clark, Jarren McAllister and particularly Hasan Ward, each shined a bit and logged double-digit minutes in the Rams recent blowout win over GW. Hyland chipped in a typical Hyland performance of 13 points on 50% shooting with three assists and saw fellow point guard, Tre Clark, notch three assists as well, the duo finding sophomore KeShawn Curry and freshman Ward via some ridiculous dimes including a Clark almost-half court assist to Curry that made it's way into the Sports Center top-10 plays. Several of the duo's assists found Ward who had eight points off of assisted dunks for the career-high 10-point evening.
Three of the Ram's four scholarship freshman (Hyland, Ward and McAllister) rank top-5 on the team in player efficiency rating and this deep into the season all check in to the top-6 in overall box plus/minus as well.
That's great for the Rams' future.
What will happen during the Rams' present may be anyone's guess, but so far VCU has yet to win a game they were not favored to win by kenpom's computers (but have dropped several they were favored to win), meaning the black and gold are on pace to finish 9-9 in conference as they are favored to win tonight before losing on Friday at Davidson, then will head into the A-10 tournament where they will be favored to win their first matchup before falling to Dayton in a Friday noon game.
Can VCU buck that trend and if so, will it be the Rams' youth that gets it done or will VCU get healthy and see a senior bounce-back?
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #999999;">DUQ 71.6, VCU 70.7</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 64.3, DUQ 65.8</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">VCU 51.3%, DUQ 49.3%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 47.6%, DUQ 47.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.5%, DUQ 31.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">DUQ 30.1%, VCU 33.4%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">DUQ 54.2%, VCU 47.8%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46.3%, DUQ 49.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #999999;">DUQ 34.3, VCU 34</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 17.6%, DUQ 18.4%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 24.9%, DUQ 20.2%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
I think it's basically gotta be the GW blueprint, but against a statistically tougher opponent.
The Rams winning the paint would go a long way toward a crucial win tonight. VCU's shot selection in the win over the Colonials (a ton of "high percentage" shots in the form of basically a dunk contest) was the best bit of VCU ball movement and shot selection I've seen from this group in a long time. They replaced blind rushed hook shots out of the post and fadeaway "layups" with dunks and dunks and dunks and dunks...and wide open feet-set threes. VCU has to have that type of shot selection tonight (paging Mr. Ward) and an off night for the Dukes from distance wouldn't hurt either (Duquesne takes 42.8% of their shots from beyond the arc).
Kenpom: 71-65 VCU win with an 70% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at the Start C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: MASN
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
[/am4show]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #999999;">DUQ 71.6, VCU 70.7</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 64.3, DUQ 65.8</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">VCU 51.3%, DUQ 49.3%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 47.6%, DUQ 47.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.5%, DUQ 31.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">DUQ 30.1%, VCU 33.4%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">DUQ 54.2%, VCU 47.8%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 46.3%, DUQ 49.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #999999;">DUQ 34.3, VCU 34</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #999999;">VCU 17.6%, DUQ 18.4%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 24.9%, DUQ 20.2%</span>
