Game Preview: VCU v No.6 Baylor [INSIDER]

VCU put together their best half of basketball on the season in Wednesday's Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinals, turning a 4-point halftime deficit into a 12-point Rams win over the ACC's Syracuse Orange. Their reward? A semifinal matchup with the defending national champion Baylor Bears. Happy Thanksgiving.
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VCU (3-2)
No.6 BAYLOR BEARS (5-0)[/HEADING=3]

A QUICK LOOK AT BAYLOR[/HEADING=3]
The Bears made easy work of the 2021 NCAA tournament field, winning all but one of their six tourney wins by double-digits including a 16-point whooping of top-seeded Gonzaga. With that success has come pay days for several key pieces including NBA lottery pick, Davion Mitchell, as well as second round draftee, Jared Butler. Fellow starters Macio Teague (G League) and Mark Vital (NFL) went out on top as well, leaving Flo Thamba (6'10 245) as the team's only returning starter. The Bears rank 247th nationally in minutes continuity, meaning this is a new look Bears team, but one that has looked fairly similar to last season's group in terms of dominance. Baylor currently sits at sixth nationally in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency margins and have won their first five contests by an average of 30.2 points including a 38-point victory over kenpom top-100 Stanford. Baylor has been elite inside the arc (56.3% 2p%), don't turn the ball over (54th nationally in offensive TO%) and rank 7th nationally in turnover percentage defense, even out-havocing the Rams. Long story short: they are very good.

Four Bears are averaging double digits including leading scorer, sophomore LJ Cryer (17.8 ppg, 54.8% 3p%). Two-time transfer, James Akinjo (Georgetown -> Arizona -> Baylor) is averaging a charitable 7.8 assists per contest to go with his 10 ppg and a team-high 2.6 steals per contest. They are a super long team, playing just three players who stand shorter than 6'8, but do get big minutes from that trio of 6'1 Cryer, 6'3 Presbyterian transfer Adam Flagler (9 ppg, 21 mpg) and the 6'1 Akinjo.

Despite being a solid three-point shooting team, Baylor does most of their damage offensively inside the arc. They do however, take a statistically unadvisable high amount of "long twos" with 35.2% of their attempts coming via two-point jump shots.

While they've done what they've needed to do against lesser opponents so far this season, they've yet to face an elite offense or defense, meaning VCU's 14th-ranked D could provide one of their most interesting challenges so far with so many new faces on their roster.

A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
44 SECOND HALF POINTS! 44 SECOND HALF POINTS AGAINST SYRACUSE!

[caption id="attachment_30768" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/6027A7D6-62E4-4807-8B6B-F91C3AF9BB17.jpeg"><img class="wp-image-30768 size-medium" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/6027A7D6-62E4-4807-8B6B-F91C3AF9BB17-300x200.jpeg" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a> Marcus Tsohonis finally got things going as a Ram, connecting on three of his four three-pointers in VCU's upset of Syracuse.[/caption]

The Rams scored just six fewer points in the second half of last night's win than they were averaging for entire games coming into that one. The Orange's zone defense weirdly played right into the hands of VCU's previously struggling offense, forcing the black and gold to play a more controlled game, resulting in a season-low 14 VCU turnovers and a season-best 38.9% three-point night. The Cuse 2-3 zone effectively eased VCU's offensive struggles, leaving the Rams lockdown defense to do what it does in the win, limiting their ACC opponent to just 29% shooting and advancing VCU to today's semifinal.

VCU got their best game yet from Washington transfer, Marcus Tsohonis. The junior guard connected on a game-high three three-pointers for his first double-digit scoring performance as a Ram. He trailed only Levi Stockard who had 15 points on 50% shooting and added four rebounds, four assists, one block and a steal.

Syracuse was one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country heading into this one but was limited to just 21.7% from distance. Nine players saw double-digit minutes from VCU including all three freshman.

In short, it was VCU's most well-rounded performance of the season, an effort they hope to improve on tonight against what on paper should be VCU's biggest challenge of the season.

TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">BAY 85.8, VCU 54</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 52, BAY 55.6</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">BAY 55%, VCU 45.4%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 35.8%, BAY 43.5%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">BAY 35%, VCU 29.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 21.2%, BAY 33.3%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">BAY 56.3%, VCU 46.1%</span>

2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 39.8%, BAY 38.2%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">BAY 42.6, VCU 32.4</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">BAY 16.1%, VCU 25.6%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.9%, BAY 28.7%</span>

VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
VCU's immovable object defense stopped one unstoppable force offense in Syracuse, but can it do it again against a Baylor team that has looked much better than the Orange this season? That's one part of the battle, but the Ram's looking simply solid on the other side of the ball is another key part of that equation. VCU posted a meh, but not miserable 52% true shooting percentage in the win over Syracuse and that can be more than enough the way the Rams have played offense. No one is asking this year's group to catch fire like VCU in March 2011, they simply must be mediocre. That is the absolute minimum requirement tonight against the Bears. While mediocre offense and great defense should be enough against about the entire remaining VCU schedule, that might not be the case tonight. Rams need an A game. If they can do so things get weird and we've got a team building an early tournament resume. Easier said than done though!

Kenpom: 71-59 VCU loss with an 12% chance of a Rams victory.

Game tips at 5PM at the Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas

Watch: ESPN

Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&amp;pname=1248&amp;campid=header&amp;cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM &amp; 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>

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Natty
Licensed Virginia Realtor and part-time basketball writer. Co-founder of VCURamNation.com and A10Talk.com.
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Mat Shelton-Eide
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