Today is the day that VCU puts it all together. I'm calling it. The Rams take on a hapless Northern Illinois Huskies squad that just two games ago lost 84-47 to the kenpom No.321-ranked Idaho Vandals. While they haven't been THAT bad the rest of the season (were within 21 to Gonzaga that next contest), I think this is night most things click for VCU. That's what I want to believe at least...
<span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">VCU RAMS (7-4)
<span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">VCU RAMS (7-4)
</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">NORTHERN ILLINOIS (3-7)</span>[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS[/HEADING=3]
On paper the Huskies come to the Stu this evening as the second lowest-ranked team VCU will have played all season. They have earned that distinction with a fun combination of bad offense and bad defense. Fun fact: they also turn the ball over the same percentage of time (23.6% of possessions) as VCU!
Northern Illinois is very inexperienced and plays a deep -- but not deep in talent -- bench. They are very much the poor man's version of VCU, but without any real redeeming qualities.
The Huskies match VCU's poor effective field goal percentage of 47.6%, as I mentioned, turn it over a ton, don't rebound and what I'm most excited about...they don't defend. They also don't turn teams over, which is (in theory) great news for a VCU team coming off a 25-turnover night against Radford.
The team out of the MAC is led by 6'3 shooting guard, Keshawn Williams. The Tulsa transfer is entering his second season with the Huskies and averaging a career-best 18.2 points per game. He leads Northern Illinois in minutes at 35.4 per contest and is a capable three-point shooter at 35%.
Williams is joined in the backcourt by 5'11 point guard, David Colt. Colt can score, but struggles with consistency and efficiency and struggles a bit defensively.
Simply put, Northern Illinois is a bad team and one VCU SHOULD make easy work of today.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
The Rams struggled with lowly Radford this week, but managed a big second half run to escape with an eight-point win. Why did they struggle so much? Because of the usual culprit...turnovers.
VCU's 25 turnovers was the team's highest of the season with three starters, Ace Baldwin, Jamir Watkins and Jalen DeLoach, accounting for 16 of those. On the night the team hit a turnover rate of 34.7% of their possessions, their worst showing of the season.
Imagine if they simply turn the ball over a mediocre 18%. That's about how much the middle-of-the-pack Division I teams turn it over. That's about 11 fewer turnovers, meaning 11 potential extra shots, which at a true shooting percentage that night of just shy of 60% equals, what...and additions 13 points?
VCU was a 10-point kenpom favorite entering that contest, so losing by eight barely hurts the metrics, but winning by 21 instead is how you climb the rankings. You can apply that type of math throughout the season and instead of sitting at 162nd in the Net rankings with no chance of making the NCAA tournament currently, to a team with more wins and a resume. And that's by simply being MEDIOCRE when it comes to offensive turnovers...not even asking VCU to be good there.
But why is VCU so bad at turnovers?
Great question. From what I've seen, it's mostly just pure carelessness/laziness. Telegraphed lazy passes seems to be a frequent offender. Not "eating the ball" as the recipient of many of those passes contributing to the issue as well.
<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Jamir3.gif"><img class="alignleft wp-image-32100 size-full" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Jamir3.gif" alt="" width="732" height="406" /></a>
<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Johns2.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-32101" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Johns2.gif" alt="" width="732" height="406" /></a>
There are an almost unlimited amount of those examples from the Radford game in particular to pull from. Another frequent issue is in bigs, particularly Jalen DeLoach, not being tight with his dribble in the post (or well, just dribbling too much).
<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach2.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-32102" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach2.gif" alt="" width="740" height="404" /></a><a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach4.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-32103" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach4.gif" alt="" width="732" height="406" /></a>
Are these things fixable? One would think. Unfortunately we are 11 games in and they appear worse than ever. But perhaps the 25-turnover night against Radford was enough of a wakeup call that something finally changes.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 69.2, VCU 66.2</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 64.2, NIU 76.1</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: VCU 47.6%, NIU 47.6%
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 47.2%, NIU 50.6%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 32.7%, VCU 29.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 33.2%, NIU 34%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 49.5%, NIU 46.8%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 45.8%, NIU 50.5%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 32.7, VCU 34.4</span>
Turnover% Offense: NIU 23.6%, VCU 23.6%
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 25.3%, NIU 17.7%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
If they limit turnovers and make smart plays on offense.
Jalen DeLoach and Brandon Johns Jr. BOTH had season-highs in 2-point attempts in VCU's win over Radford, finishing a combined 75% of those 20 total attempts (and adding an additional 7 points combined at the stripe). With Northern Illinois being extremely beatable in the paint, I'm curious to see if VCU sticks with that formula and if so, can DeLoach in particular limit turnovers (31.8% turnover percentage is the worst among VCU starters).
It's looked dicey against the likes of Howard, Radford and we all know what happened against Jacksonville, so it feels hard to write off any opponent this season, but to me this is more of a game of "how badly can we beat this team" than "will we win". The Rams are a 14-point kenpom favorite, which winning by that much might feel good to fans, but it doesn't dig VCU out of the miserable NET ranking they are currently in. The Rams need to play a disciplined game, have things finally click and hopefully win this by 20+ to start a rankings climb heading into conference play.
Kenpom: 76-62 VCU win with an 90% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 4PM at the Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: MASN/ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
On paper the Huskies come to the Stu this evening as the second lowest-ranked team VCU will have played all season. They have earned that distinction with a fun combination of bad offense and bad defense. Fun fact: they also turn the ball over the same percentage of time (23.6% of possessions) as VCU!
Northern Illinois is very inexperienced and plays a deep -- but not deep in talent -- bench. They are very much the poor man's version of VCU, but without any real redeeming qualities.
The Huskies match VCU's poor effective field goal percentage of 47.6%, as I mentioned, turn it over a ton, don't rebound and what I'm most excited about...they don't defend. They also don't turn teams over, which is (in theory) great news for a VCU team coming off a 25-turnover night against Radford.
The team out of the MAC is led by 6'3 shooting guard, Keshawn Williams. The Tulsa transfer is entering his second season with the Huskies and averaging a career-best 18.2 points per game. He leads Northern Illinois in minutes at 35.4 per contest and is a capable three-point shooter at 35%.
Williams is joined in the backcourt by 5'11 point guard, David Colt. Colt can score, but struggles with consistency and efficiency and struggles a bit defensively.
Simply put, Northern Illinois is a bad team and one VCU SHOULD make easy work of today.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
The Rams struggled with lowly Radford this week, but managed a big second half run to escape with an eight-point win. Why did they struggle so much? Because of the usual culprit...turnovers.
VCU's 25 turnovers was the team's highest of the season with three starters, Ace Baldwin, Jamir Watkins and Jalen DeLoach, accounting for 16 of those. On the night the team hit a turnover rate of 34.7% of their possessions, their worst showing of the season.
Imagine if they simply turn the ball over a mediocre 18%. That's about how much the middle-of-the-pack Division I teams turn it over. That's about 11 fewer turnovers, meaning 11 potential extra shots, which at a true shooting percentage that night of just shy of 60% equals, what...and additions 13 points?
VCU was a 10-point kenpom favorite entering that contest, so losing by eight barely hurts the metrics, but winning by 21 instead is how you climb the rankings. You can apply that type of math throughout the season and instead of sitting at 162nd in the Net rankings with no chance of making the NCAA tournament currently, to a team with more wins and a resume. And that's by simply being MEDIOCRE when it comes to offensive turnovers...not even asking VCU to be good there.
But why is VCU so bad at turnovers?
Great question. From what I've seen, it's mostly just pure carelessness/laziness. Telegraphed lazy passes seems to be a frequent offender. Not "eating the ball" as the recipient of many of those passes contributing to the issue as well.
<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Jamir3.gif"><img class="alignleft wp-image-32100 size-full" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Jamir3.gif" alt="" width="732" height="406" /></a>
<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Johns2.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-32101" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Johns2.gif" alt="" width="732" height="406" /></a>
There are an almost unlimited amount of those examples from the Radford game in particular to pull from. Another frequent issue is in bigs, particularly Jalen DeLoach, not being tight with his dribble in the post (or well, just dribbling too much).
<a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach2.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-32102" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach2.gif" alt="" width="740" height="404" /></a><a href="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach4.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-32103" src="https://www.vcuramnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DeLoach4.gif" alt="" width="732" height="406" /></a>
Are these things fixable? One would think. Unfortunately we are 11 games in and they appear worse than ever. But perhaps the 25-turnover night against Radford was enough of a wakeup call that something finally changes.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 69.2, VCU 66.2</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 64.2, NIU 76.1</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: VCU 47.6%, NIU 47.6%
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 47.2%, NIU 50.6%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 32.7%, VCU 29.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 33.2%, NIU 34%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 49.5%, NIU 46.8%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 45.8%, NIU 50.5%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 32.7, VCU 34.4</span>
Turnover% Offense: NIU 23.6%, VCU 23.6%
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 25.3%, NIU 17.7%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
If they limit turnovers and make smart plays on offense.
Jalen DeLoach and Brandon Johns Jr. BOTH had season-highs in 2-point attempts in VCU's win over Radford, finishing a combined 75% of those 20 total attempts (and adding an additional 7 points combined at the stripe). With Northern Illinois being extremely beatable in the paint, I'm curious to see if VCU sticks with that formula and if so, can DeLoach in particular limit turnovers (31.8% turnover percentage is the worst among VCU starters).
It's looked dicey against the likes of Howard, Radford and we all know what happened against Jacksonville, so it feels hard to write off any opponent this season, but to me this is more of a game of "how badly can we beat this team" than "will we win". The Rams are a 14-point kenpom favorite, which winning by that much might feel good to fans, but it doesn't dig VCU out of the miserable NET ranking they are currently in. The Rams need to play a disciplined game, have things finally click and hopefully win this by 20+ to start a rankings climb heading into conference play.
Kenpom: 76-62 VCU win with an 90% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 4PM at the Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: MASN/ESPN+
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 69.2, VCU 66.2</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 64.2, NIU 76.1</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: VCU 47.6%, NIU 47.6%
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 47.2%, NIU 50.6%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 32.7%, VCU 29.7%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 33.2%, NIU 34%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 49.5%, NIU 46.8%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 45.8%, NIU 50.5%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">NIU 32.7, VCU 34.4</span>
Turnover% Offense: NIU 23.6%, VCU 23.6%
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #008000;">VCU 25.3%, NIU 17.7%</span>
