Game Preview: VCU v ODU [INSIDER]

Rivalry week comes to the Stu in the weirdest of ways, as the Rams welcome their longtime nemesis ODU Monarchs to Richmond Saturday in front of a extremely limited Siegel Center crowd that will have this meeting feeling unlike any before in the long history between these two.
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VCU (4-2)
OLD DOMINION (2-1)[/HEADING=3]

A QUICK LOOK AT ODU[/HEADING=3]
The Monarchs return the vast majority of their production from last year's group that lost to VCU 69-57 at the Siegel Center. ODU brings the 19th most experienced roster in the country into this one, but will that equal a smart, mature group, or will it more resemble more of the same fans saw last season in the Monarchs underwhelming 13-19 season and 171st final ranking via kenpom.

Last year's Monarchs, like many ODU teams before them, lacked offensive efficiency but buttered their bread on the defensive end. The CUSA squad finished top-100 defense, every bit of it needed to attempt to bail out the nation's 249th-ranked offense. That team featuring almost all the same players scored just 57 points against last year's Rams thanks largely to a 2-15 (13.3%) shooting night from beyond the arc. That group was solid on the season at not turning the ball over, but struggled that Dec 7th evening to the tune of an 18-turnover night.

ODU is once again lead by leading scorer, Malik Curry. Now a senior, the 6'1 guard is averaging a career-best 19.3 points per contest to go with a team-leading 4.7 assists per contest. The Wilmington, DE native does virtually all his damage inside the arc, finishing half of his two-point buckets this season and drawing an insanely good 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes of action. His team will largely go as he goes due to his high-volume usage.

Another particular player to pay attention to today is junior big, Kalu Ezikpe. The Lawrenceville, GA native is sniffing a double-double average at 11 ppg and 9 rebs to go along with a hyper-efficient 70% shooting inside the arc.

The Monarchs two wins this season have come against kenpom sub-200 teams, surviving former CAA rival, No. 278 William & Mary 86-78 before defeating No.224 ten days ago, 80-66.

ODU failed their lone top-100 test, falling to No.36 Maryland 85-67 in College Park, largely doomed by an awful 6-33 (18.2%) night from three.

The Monarchs play a fairly deep bench, going about nine deep, ranking 164th nationally in bench minutes.

A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
After a four-game start against top-100 competition, VCU has seen a reduced level of competition of their last two games and made easy work of both opponents, an 18-point win against Mount St. Mary's followed by a 36-point victory over North Carolina A&T. They'll welcome an ODU squad to the Stu that is somewhere between that MSM team and the top-100 level opponents they started their season against.

Despite a roster full of fresh young faces, the intense defense VCU fans have come to expect has been present throughout the year, ranking 23rd nationally heading into tonight's contest in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Rams are turning teams over roughly one of every four times down the court as the ninth-best steals team in the nation.

Offensively this young VCU squad hasn't been that shabby either. Led by leading scorer, Bones Hyland (17.2 ppg), VCU is currently posting the 81st best effective field goal percentage in the land despite a relative gauntlet of defenses that have attempted to keep them from scoring easy buckets. Highland is currently the Rams only player averaging double-digit scoring on a roster that goes extremely deep, so much so that this young Rams squad ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes. A total of 10 Rams played double-digit minutes in VCU's recent win over NC A&T.

VCU's only black eye so far has been a high rate of unforced turnovers. The Rams have the 226th-ranked turnover percentage offense thanks largely to unforced errors. More than half of VCU's turnovers (12.7%) have come without an opponent stealing the ball.

Six current Rams have a overall box plus/minus better than +6. Only one player on last year's team, senior De'Riante Jenkins at +7.1, was above +6. This year's group is led by sophomore shot-blocker Hason Ward's +11.6 to go along with his team-leading 24.1 player efficiency rating.  His overall plus/minus even surpasses Briante Weber's decade-leading +9.7 from the 2012-13 season.

TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ODU 77.7, VCU 74.2</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 63.2, ODU 76.3</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 53%, ODU 48.7%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 42.6%, ODU 55.6%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 34.1%, ODU 28.2%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 28.4%, ODU 45.5%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 54.1%, ODU 52.5%</span>

2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 42.6%, ODU 47.6%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ODU 37.3, VCU 33.7</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">ODU 13.2%, VCU 21.7%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.2%, ODU 16.9%</span>

VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
On paper it's pretty impressive that VCU leads ODU in all these statistical categories above considering the different levels of competition these two have faced, VCU taking on a much tougher schedule thus far. So with that, I think the key here will be simply cleaning up the blemishes so the Rams don't beat themselves. Turnovers and fouls are a great way to blow a game you're supposed to win, so VCU just has to be better there to avoid an upset today by an experienced Monarch group eager to make this young squad look like a bunch of struggling underclassmen. On top of that I think we can all agree that these Rams are just so much scarier when they get that 3-point ball falling almost anywhere over 30%. A defense that can turn you over combined with a few threes falling is how things get scary for VCU's opponents. It can turn a close game into a 20-point deficit quick, so another hot night from deep via Bones and friends would make Ram fans breath easier throughout this contest.

Kenpom: 72-65 VCU win with a 73% chance of a Rams victory.

Game tips at 5PM at the Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA

Watch: NBC Sports Network

Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&amp;pname=1248&amp;campid=header&amp;cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM &amp; 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>

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Natty
Licensed Virginia Realtor and part-time basketball writer. Co-founder of VCURamNation.com and A10Talk.com.
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Mat Shelton-Eide
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