The Rams and Spiders tip it up in a rematch of last month's nail-biter, a two-point road win for VCU that put Mike Rhoades' squad in charge of their A-10 tourney double-bye destiny while relegating the Spiders to playing a bit of catchup. The black and gold won that one with lights out shooting and lockdown three-point defense, getting a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double from big man Hason Ward in the process. With Ward's status in question tonight following an ankle sprain at Fordham, will VCU have enough juice to slam the door on Richmond's top-4 hopes or will a banged up roster open the door for a Spiders upset?
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VCU (17-7, 10-3)
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VCU (17-7, 10-3)
RICHMOND (17-9, 8-5)[/HEADING=3]
A QUICK LOOK AT RICHMOND[/HEADING=3]
This was really supposed to be "the year" for the Spiders, returning a roster so experienced (four fifth-year senior playing key roles) that it almost makes some pro teams look young in comparison. While they haven't had a bad year by any stretch of the imagination, they haven't come close to hitting that dream season potential some Spider fans perhaps hoped for. Only one real bad loss on the record (a 27-point home drubbing by a "meh" Saint Joseph's team), but also a 2-7 record against kenpom top-100 team that has highlighted just how perhaps high (or low) the ceiling was for this group all along.
Gilyard, Golden, Sherod and Cayo, plus the talented young Tyler Burton, have become household names in the Atlantic 10, about half of that coming from talent, the other have from familiarity. They have played a ton of combine minutes during their careers and do more of the same for this year's edition of UofR, the Spiders ranking 238th nationally in bench minutes this season.
Richmond's offense has been just as good as the one that helped Richmond finish top-50 nationally two seasons ago, but their defense hasn't improved and thanks to being more vulnerable to three-point shooting, has actually regressed on paper. Richmond ranks 273rd nationally in three-point percentage defense and checks in at 12th in conference play in the stat. VCU shot just 10 threes against the Spiders in their last meeting but hit a strong 40% of them. That's about 10% more than the Spiders team from two seasons allowed and that's been a killer for Richmond this season. The Spiders have given up 40% or better from distance in three of their five conference losses and gave up 36% in the loss to Saint Joseph's. They gave up 40% or more from distance in two of their four non-conference losses as well.
At five losses already with games remaining against VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton and St. Bonaventure, Richmond's hopes of a top-4 finish are all but cooked at this point, but this is no doubt a dangerous and extremely experienced team (three of their five losses in A-10 play were by one made basket) and capable of playing spoiler to the likes of VCU tonight in a sold out Siegel Center.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
For most of the year, VCU has simply found a way and most of that way has been an extremely good defense (currently ranked 5th nationally). But the Rams on occasion break out offensively as well, thanks mostly to the A-10's second-ranked in-conference three-point offense. Other times VCU looks like they have never seen a basketball on offense and this recent win at Fordham was a perfect sample of the Rams' Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde personalities on that side of the floor.
VCU came out hot at Fordham, jumping out to a 40-26 halftime lead while shooting 69% from the field. With the game seemingly in hand, the Rams opted to flirt with disaster in the second stanza, shooting 31% from the field to finish the game and allowing the Bronx Rams to get within three before surviving with a five-point win. It's a level of inconsistency that puts some worry in Ram fans including the one typing this post and potentially without Hason Ward's defensive dependability tonight (not to mention extreme offensive efficiency as of late), an inconsistency that will certainly bite VCU eventually down this stretch.
On the season turnovers have really accounted for a huge chunk of that inconsistency (feels like almost all of it). The Rams rank 345th in the nation in turnover percentage offense out of 358 teams. VCU turned it over 17 times at Fordham and have turned it over at least that many times in over half (7) of their A-10 games this season. It realistically torches the Rams metrics, which with things like "NET" becoming such a huge part of NCAA tourney resume criteria, is a self-inflicted wound that may likely come back to haunt VCU this March 13th.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 73.5, VCU 64.7</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 60.8, UR 69.2</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 52.3%, VCU 50.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 43.3%, UR 50.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 35.1%, UR 34.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.1%, UR 35.6%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 52.9%, VCU 49.7%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.8%, UR 49.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 33, VCU 32.3</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 14.4%, VCU 22.3%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.9%, UR 19.6%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Hason Ward's injury status appears huge for this game. Fact: Ward led VCU in the last meeting between these two with a +10 box +/- in his 25 minutes of play (meaning the Rams scored more 10 more points than the Spiders during the minutes Ward was on the floor). His fellow bigs, Levi Stockard and Jalen DeLoach didn't fair as well, finishing with -5 and -6 box +/- numbers themselves in their combined almost 19 minutes of action. Ward's ability to protect the rim with his length and his knack for chasing down and altering what might've otherwise been wide open threes is HUGE against a team that cuts and moves like Richmond. If he's out, the degree of difficulty ramps up considerably tonight. So that's the very first sign I'll be looking out for. Outside of that, it's turnovers and threes that could tell the story for 40 minutes. VCU loves to give the ball up and Richmond loves to take it away. That puts an enormous amount of pressure on VCU to be nearly flawless defensively if they are turning it over at such a high clip against and efficient offense like Richmond. No one wearing black and gold wants that, so valuing the ball is everything. Do that and do what the numbers suggest are possibly offensively from three and VCU takes one big step toward a double-bye in DC.
Kenpom: 67-63 VCU win with a 64% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at the Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: ESPN2
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
This was really supposed to be "the year" for the Spiders, returning a roster so experienced (four fifth-year senior playing key roles) that it almost makes some pro teams look young in comparison. While they haven't had a bad year by any stretch of the imagination, they haven't come close to hitting that dream season potential some Spider fans perhaps hoped for. Only one real bad loss on the record (a 27-point home drubbing by a "meh" Saint Joseph's team), but also a 2-7 record against kenpom top-100 team that has highlighted just how perhaps high (or low) the ceiling was for this group all along.
Gilyard, Golden, Sherod and Cayo, plus the talented young Tyler Burton, have become household names in the Atlantic 10, about half of that coming from talent, the other have from familiarity. They have played a ton of combine minutes during their careers and do more of the same for this year's edition of UofR, the Spiders ranking 238th nationally in bench minutes this season.
Richmond's offense has been just as good as the one that helped Richmond finish top-50 nationally two seasons ago, but their defense hasn't improved and thanks to being more vulnerable to three-point shooting, has actually regressed on paper. Richmond ranks 273rd nationally in three-point percentage defense and checks in at 12th in conference play in the stat. VCU shot just 10 threes against the Spiders in their last meeting but hit a strong 40% of them. That's about 10% more than the Spiders team from two seasons allowed and that's been a killer for Richmond this season. The Spiders have given up 40% or better from distance in three of their five conference losses and gave up 36% in the loss to Saint Joseph's. They gave up 40% or more from distance in two of their four non-conference losses as well.
At five losses already with games remaining against VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton and St. Bonaventure, Richmond's hopes of a top-4 finish are all but cooked at this point, but this is no doubt a dangerous and extremely experienced team (three of their five losses in A-10 play were by one made basket) and capable of playing spoiler to the likes of VCU tonight in a sold out Siegel Center.
A QUICK LOOK AT VCU[/HEADING=3]
For most of the year, VCU has simply found a way and most of that way has been an extremely good defense (currently ranked 5th nationally). But the Rams on occasion break out offensively as well, thanks mostly to the A-10's second-ranked in-conference three-point offense. Other times VCU looks like they have never seen a basketball on offense and this recent win at Fordham was a perfect sample of the Rams' Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde personalities on that side of the floor.
VCU came out hot at Fordham, jumping out to a 40-26 halftime lead while shooting 69% from the field. With the game seemingly in hand, the Rams opted to flirt with disaster in the second stanza, shooting 31% from the field to finish the game and allowing the Bronx Rams to get within three before surviving with a five-point win. It's a level of inconsistency that puts some worry in Ram fans including the one typing this post and potentially without Hason Ward's defensive dependability tonight (not to mention extreme offensive efficiency as of late), an inconsistency that will certainly bite VCU eventually down this stretch.
On the season turnovers have really accounted for a huge chunk of that inconsistency (feels like almost all of it). The Rams rank 345th in the nation in turnover percentage offense out of 358 teams. VCU turned it over 17 times at Fordham and have turned it over at least that many times in over half (7) of their A-10 games this season. It realistically torches the Rams metrics, which with things like "NET" becoming such a huge part of NCAA tourney resume criteria, is a self-inflicted wound that may likely come back to haunt VCU this March 13th.
TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 73.5, VCU 64.7</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 60.8, UR 69.2</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 52.3%, VCU 50.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 43.3%, UR 50.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 35.1%, UR 34.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.1%, UR 35.6%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 52.9%, VCU 49.7%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.8%, UR 49.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 33, VCU 32.3</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 14.4%, VCU 22.3%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.9%, UR 19.6%</span>
VCU WINS IF[/HEADING=3]
Hason Ward's injury status appears huge for this game. Fact: Ward led VCU in the last meeting between these two with a +10 box +/- in his 25 minutes of play (meaning the Rams scored more 10 more points than the Spiders during the minutes Ward was on the floor). His fellow bigs, Levi Stockard and Jalen DeLoach didn't fair as well, finishing with -5 and -6 box +/- numbers themselves in their combined almost 19 minutes of action. Ward's ability to protect the rim with his length and his knack for chasing down and altering what might've otherwise been wide open threes is HUGE against a team that cuts and moves like Richmond. If he's out, the degree of difficulty ramps up considerably tonight. So that's the very first sign I'll be looking out for. Outside of that, it's turnovers and threes that could tell the story for 40 minutes. VCU loves to give the ball up and Richmond loves to take it away. That puts an enormous amount of pressure on VCU to be nearly flawless defensively if they are turning it over at such a high clip against and efficient offense like Richmond. No one wearing black and gold wants that, so valuing the ball is everything. Do that and do what the numbers suggest are possibly offensively from three and VCU takes one big step toward a double-bye in DC.
Kenpom: 67-63 VCU win with a 64% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at the Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA
Watch: ESPN2
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&pname=1248&campid=header&cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets: <a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 73.5, VCU 64.7</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 60.8, UR 69.2</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 52.3%, VCU 50.5%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 43.3%, UR 50.8%</span>
3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 35.1%, UR 34.3%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 27.1%, UR 35.6%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 52.9%, VCU 49.7%</span>
2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 44.8%, UR 49.3%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 33, VCU 32.3</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">UR 14.4%, VCU 22.3%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 25.9%, UR 19.6%</span>
