Game Preview: VCU v Saint Louis [INSIDER]

The Atlantic 10 preseason No.1 Saint Louis Billikens head to Richmond tonight to attempt to knock off the current league leader in a huge home game VCU hopes to make their ninth consecutive win. It would be VCU's eighth consecutive victory over the Billikens and a game closer toward winning the Rams' first outright regular season A-10 crown.
<h4>VCU (21-6, 12-2)
SAINT LOUIS (17-10, 8-6)</h4>
<h4>A QUICK LOOK AT THE BILLIKENS</h4>
In many ways the Billikens are a lot of what VCU saw this past season in Saint Louis. SLU's core of Bess, French, Goodwin and Foreman return a year wiser, but in place of graduated seniors, Aaron Hines and Davell Roby, the Bills feature Drexel transfer, Tramaine Isabell and alongside him have featured freshman guard, Fred Thatch.

With a lot of the same faces have come similar results. SLU has yet to live up to the preseason No.1 hype and have only slightly risen in kenpom.com's national rankings, from No.148 last season to No.136 heading into tonight's matchup.

The Billikens are even tougher defensively than last season's group that ranked 80th nationally on that side of the ball. The offense however, has taken a surprising step back thanks to an inability to efficiently put the ball in the basket from virtually any spot on the court (including the free throw stripe).

SLU's offensive effective field goal percentage is one of the worst in the country (324th nationally) and the Billikens haven't helped themselves with their turnover issues either. How they have helped keep themselves above water despite those struggles is that aforementioned tough defense and an ability to clean up on the glass.

Despite their struggles, the Bills have two potential A-10 Players of the Year of sorts, the first via Javon Bess, who won't likely win the A-10 Player of the Year race, but will certainly be in the discussion.

Bess is SLU's only reliably efficient offensive weapon and is the team's leading scorer at 15.6 points per game. The 6'6 Michigan State transfer is one of the better rebounders for Travis Ford's team and is a threat on both sides of the ball, no matter where he is on the court.

The other Player of the Year candidate is potential A-10 defensive player of the year, Hasahn French.

French ranks fourth in the A-10 in defensive box plus/minus, third in blocks percentage and fourth in defensive rebound percentage. The former VCU target is one of the worst free throw shooters you'll ever see (35.1% this season...true story), but is a bad SOB on D and would've been a real nice defensive piece for VCU had he not made the career-killing move of picking the wrong school.
<h4>A QUICK LOOK AT VCU</h4>
Fun stat I looked up the other day that shows you how well VCU is playing...

A-10 in-conference efficiency margins: VCU +20.1, Dayton +9.9, Davidson + 9.7, Bona +6.5, Duquesne +3.4, Mason +3.1, SLU +1.6, La Salle -1.7, Richmond -2.3, Rhody -7.8, UMass -9.7, GW -10.2, St. Joe's -10.6, Fordham -11.5.

That's impressive.

Efficiency margin, to put it simply, breaks down basically how many points you score per 100 possessions and right now, in A-10 play, VCU is consistently kicking some ass. The black and gold have absolutely been throttling teams since their offense has managed to somewhat catch up to their defense. VCU ranks No.1 by a wide margin in A-10 defensive play, but have clawed their way up to No.2 on the offensive side of the ball, which is a huge reasons the Rams are now receiving votes in the AP top-25 and are currently considered an NCAA tournament team by all the major bracketologists.

But there is still work to be done.

The Rams must continue this pace heading into two home games against the A-10's preseason No.1 (SLU) and No.2 (Saint Joseph's) and have two tricky road contests against in-state rivals Richmond and George Mason (and yes, George Mason is a rival).

TALE OF THE TAPE[/HEADING=3]
Scoring Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 71.5, SLU 66.7</span>
Scoring Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 61.7, SLU 64</span>
Effective Field Goal% Offense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 50.5%, SLU 46.6%</span>
Effective Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 42.6%, SLU 47%</span>

3-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 30.9%, SLU 30.4%</span>
3-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 26.9%, SLU 30.6%</span>
2-Point Field Goal%: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 53.3%, SLU 47.1%</span>

2-Point Field Goal% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 43.7%, SLU 47.7%</span>
Rebounds per game: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SLU 39.3, VCU 37.1</span>
Turnover% Offense: <span style="color: #ff0000;">SLU 19.5%, VCU 20.3%</span>
Turnover% Defense: <span style="color: #339966;">VCU 23.3%, SLU 19.8%</span>
<h4>VCU WINS IF</h4>
Both defenses have the ability to turn this into a serious rock fight, but I'm HOPING that the Rams can find enough patience on offense to get some relatively efficient scoring down low to make this another impressive win.

Show me a night a SLU opponent has shot 50% or better inside the arc against the Billikens and I will mostly likely show you a SLU loss (or a close game against a bad opponent). SLU is 5-1 in the Atlantic 10 when holding conference opponents under 50% inside the arc, their lone loss coming by one point in a game in which they held the Davidson Wildcats to 47% shooting down low. They are 2-5 when opponents shoot over 50% inside the arc against them, one of those wins coming back three against Fordham.

VCU has the defense to win one of those sub-50% nights, but is that something we really want to have to sweat out? I'll pass on that.

It's also worth noting Saint Louis ranks 323rd nationally in bench minutes. A VCU team that has been quite good at getting teams in foul trouble could really take advantage of that limited depth tonight at the Stu.

Kenpom: 66-54 VCU win with an 86% chance of a VCU Rams victory.

Game tips at 7:30PM at the Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA

Watch: CBS Sports Net
Listen: <a href="https://www.iheart.com/live/fox-sports-910-richmond-2461/?autoplay=true&amp;pname=1248&amp;campid=header&amp;cid=index.html">Fox Sports 910 AM &amp; 98.5 FM</a>
Live Tweets:¬†<a href="https://twitter.com/vcuramnation">@VCURamNation</a>​

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Natty
Licensed Virginia Realtor and part-time basketball writer. Co-founder of VCURamNation.com and A10Talk.com.
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Mat Shelton-Eide
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