With college basketball officially tipping it up on the court just over a month from now, the preseason rankings are starting to trickle in. The ones I've seen have a predicted bottom-half conference finish for the Rams, perhaps not super surprising after last season's eighth place finish.
SOME VERY EARLY VCU PRESEASON RANKINGS
Busting Brackets: 10th
Jon Rothstein: 10th
Tony Patelis: 8th
The general consensus I've seen this offseason is that the Rams will struggle. The main reasoning is typically linked to the absence of 2018 First Team selection, Justin Tillman.
The high-motor forward from Detroit led VCU with a near-double-double 18.9-point, 9.9-rebound average while finishing 55.7% of his shots.
Throw in the graduation of senior starting point guard, Johnny Williams, and the feeling online seems to be that VCU could be in for a down year while some rebuilding programs, like Saint Louis and George Mason, are finally due to lead the conference.
2018: THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 5TH AND 8TH
VCU finished eighth in last season's A-10, a disappointing fact indeed for a fanbase used to seven consecutive NCAA tournaments, but it's worth noting what the difference between 5th and 8th was, which was the difference between George Mason's "surprsing" season and VCU's "disappointing" finish.
A-10 tie-breakers. That was the difference.
It's amazing to contrast the attitudes of the fanbases of VCU and Mason right now. Both finished 8-8 in Atlantic 10 play, with VCU defeating Mason by eight in the Patriot's EagleBank Arena, followed by Dave Paulsen's group exacting some revenge with a 1-point Siegel Center upset on senior night. The programs matched conference records with VCU finishing 76 spots higher in the final kenpom rankings. The Rams finished 18-15 overall under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades -- nine of those losses coming to top-100 teams, seven against teams ranked 52nd or better -- while Mason finished under .500 at 16-17 under third-year head coach, Paulsen.
Four teams finished tied at 8-8 overall in A-10 play: VCU, Mason, Richmond and Saint Louis, with tie-breaker rules relegating the Rams to the bottom of that group despite defeating both Mason and SLU on the road, essentially being buried at the bottom of the group thanks to a season sweep at the hands of Richmond.
The black and gold lost their only game of the season, a 1-point overtime road loss at Saint Joseph's.
VCU ADDITIONS AND SUBTRACTIONS
There are two main personnel changes this offseason everyone is focusing on: Justin Tillman and Marcus Evans.
Let's look at some pros and cons of both before moving on to other players, starting with Tillman.
Tillman was an offensive juggernaut for the Rams this past year that seemed absolutely automatic at times. His +3.2 offensive box plus/minus led the black and gold and his 60.2% true shooting percentage made him a nightmare for opposing defenses. He led VCU in both offensive and defensive rebound percentage with the springy forward quickly putting back many of his 3.3 offensive rebounds per game for easy points.
Defensively, despite being named a First Team A-10 All-Defensive selection, Tillman had his issues.
The 6'8 220-pound forward played an undersized 5 man (center) for VCU last season, ranking second to last on the Rams in defensive box plus/minus (-1.1) to only garbage time walk-on, Dylan Sheehy-Guiseppi (-9.8). They were the only two players to post negative defensive box plus/minus numbers on the team.
That is a notable stat, as it makes Tillman the only VCU starting big to post a negative box plus/minus during VCU's "Final 4 era". I don't fault Tillman for that entirely however, being forced to play what I thought was out of position for the majority of the season.
A good bit of Tillman's departing offensive punch is hoped to be replaced by the addition of newly-available Rice transfer, Marcus Evans. That of course is if Evans is healthy after having offseason achilles surgery.
Evans averaged at least 19 points per contest in his two seasons under Rhoades with the Rice Owls and was a highly sought after transfer, but like Tillman, posted questionable advanced defensive numbers.
Evans posted the second highest offensive box plus/minus number among Rice players who played at least 10 minutes on the season, but like Tillman, ranked second to last on the defensive end with two consecutive seasons of negative box plus/minus numbers (-2.5 as a freshman, -2.3 as a sophomore). That's not entirely a death blow for a VCU guard however, as both Melvin Johnson and Troy Daniels posted somewhat similar numbers on strong defensive VCU teams.
Those are the names everyone is talking about. Below are the names that aren't being focused on, but perhaps should.
Starting with Corey Douglas.
Douglas played nine games with Evans as a freshman at Rice, helping the Owls to a 6-3 record. Two of those losses were to top-100 teams, both on the road and one, against No.41 Texas Tech, a game the Owls lost by just one point. It was the beginning of Douglas' career before an injury sidelined him the remainder of the season, but a promising one none-the-less. Douglas finished his nine-game sample with a 130.7 offensive rating (note: that's incredibly good), posting an insane 85.7% true shooting percentage and blocking a decent but not dominant 5% of opponents shots.
Douglas committed to follow Rhoades to VCU before playing one JUCO season that gives us a larger sample of his effectiveness, finishing his one JUCO year with a 13.3-point, 7.9-rebound, 2.7-block per game average. He shot 53.4% from the field.
JUCORecruiting.com ranked him as the 33rd best prospect of 2018.
The Louisville native will make up one half of the Tillman replacement committee, joining rising sophomore Marcus Evans as VCU's likely center rotation.
Two other very curious additions are freshmen Vincent Williams and PJ Byrd.
Williams is a mega efficient do-it-all wing somewhat in the mold of Treveon Graham and Bradford Burgess, a 4-star high school recruit that drew the interest of former Xavier/current Louisville head coach, Chris Mack, but ultimately ended up at VCU. He could have a similar impact as freshmen versions of those two, which makes him a nice piece to add, but perhaps playing not quite as important of a role as Byrd.
Evans' injury status will no doubt effect just how early Byrd may be leaned upon as a key point guard option for the Rams.
As good as they all ended up being, Eric Maynor (28.7% TO rate), Joey Rodriguez (27.7%), Darius Theus (29.9%), Briante Weber (23.4%) and JeQuan Lewis (28.6%) struggled with turnovers as freshmen, meaning a feature PG role for Byrd might not prove to be the ideal scenario for a VCU team hoping to put last season's struggled behind it.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
I'm of the opinion VCU's defense will be improved. That's my "lead pipe lock", if you will.
More minutes for Marcus Santos-Silva -- who has been a rebounding machine in high school, AAU and last season at VCU and is VCU's returning leader in defensive box plus/minus -- combined with the addition of Douglas makes that basically a lock in my mind. The Rams ranked 214th nationally in two-point defense this past season, a number I think improves this year.
I also just like the general maturing of VCU's cast of hoopers. Jenkins, Mobley, Crowfield, Simms, Vann and Co. will all be a year older and hopefully a year wiser/better. That second part is not always the case but something I'm confident will happen this season.
Also, if Evans is available, VCU's point guard position massively upgrades.
The Chesapeake native has a CAREER true shooting percentage of 58.1% and an assist rate of a solid 22.1%. Keep in mind those are from his freshmen and sophomore seasons. That's a career true shooting percentage better than Troy Daniels and an assist rate just south of Briante Weber. Wow.
The Rams will hopefully be improved entering an Atlantic 10 with huge question marks from top to bottom.
Rhode Island has a talented returning core, but loses a ton of senior talent. Davidson is in the same boat. St. Bonaventure loses the ridiculous duo of Adams and Mobley. Saint Joseph's says goodbye to leading scorers Demery and Newkirk. Everyone else, including VCU, finished 9-9 or worse.
Analysts seem to be jumping on the bandwagons of George Mason, UMass and Saint Louis (Patelis has them all ranked in his top-4) but not so much that of VCU's despite the fact VCU defeated all of that group in particular on the road last season.
The conference should be up for grabs and an improved VCU team can take advantage of that fact.
SOME VERY EARLY VCU PRESEASON RANKINGS
Busting Brackets: 10th
Jon Rothstein: 10th
Tony Patelis: 8th
The general consensus I've seen this offseason is that the Rams will struggle. The main reasoning is typically linked to the absence of 2018 First Team selection, Justin Tillman.
The high-motor forward from Detroit led VCU with a near-double-double 18.9-point, 9.9-rebound average while finishing 55.7% of his shots.
Throw in the graduation of senior starting point guard, Johnny Williams, and the feeling online seems to be that VCU could be in for a down year while some rebuilding programs, like Saint Louis and George Mason, are finally due to lead the conference.
2018: THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 5TH AND 8TH
VCU finished eighth in last season's A-10, a disappointing fact indeed for a fanbase used to seven consecutive NCAA tournaments, but it's worth noting what the difference between 5th and 8th was, which was the difference between George Mason's "surprsing" season and VCU's "disappointing" finish.
A-10 tie-breakers. That was the difference.
It's amazing to contrast the attitudes of the fanbases of VCU and Mason right now. Both finished 8-8 in Atlantic 10 play, with VCU defeating Mason by eight in the Patriot's EagleBank Arena, followed by Dave Paulsen's group exacting some revenge with a 1-point Siegel Center upset on senior night. The programs matched conference records with VCU finishing 76 spots higher in the final kenpom rankings. The Rams finished 18-15 overall under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades -- nine of those losses coming to top-100 teams, seven against teams ranked 52nd or better -- while Mason finished under .500 at 16-17 under third-year head coach, Paulsen.
Four teams finished tied at 8-8 overall in A-10 play: VCU, Mason, Richmond and Saint Louis, with tie-breaker rules relegating the Rams to the bottom of that group despite defeating both Mason and SLU on the road, essentially being buried at the bottom of the group thanks to a season sweep at the hands of Richmond.
The black and gold lost their only game of the season, a 1-point overtime road loss at Saint Joseph's.
VCU ADDITIONS AND SUBTRACTIONS
There are two main personnel changes this offseason everyone is focusing on: Justin Tillman and Marcus Evans.
Let's look at some pros and cons of both before moving on to other players, starting with Tillman.
Tillman was an offensive juggernaut for the Rams this past year that seemed absolutely automatic at times. His +3.2 offensive box plus/minus led the black and gold and his 60.2% true shooting percentage made him a nightmare for opposing defenses. He led VCU in both offensive and defensive rebound percentage with the springy forward quickly putting back many of his 3.3 offensive rebounds per game for easy points.
Defensively, despite being named a First Team A-10 All-Defensive selection, Tillman had his issues.
The 6'8 220-pound forward played an undersized 5 man (center) for VCU last season, ranking second to last on the Rams in defensive box plus/minus (-1.1) to only garbage time walk-on, Dylan Sheehy-Guiseppi (-9.8). They were the only two players to post negative defensive box plus/minus numbers on the team.
That is a notable stat, as it makes Tillman the only VCU starting big to post a negative box plus/minus during VCU's "Final 4 era". I don't fault Tillman for that entirely however, being forced to play what I thought was out of position for the majority of the season.
A good bit of Tillman's departing offensive punch is hoped to be replaced by the addition of newly-available Rice transfer, Marcus Evans. That of course is if Evans is healthy after having offseason achilles surgery.
Evans averaged at least 19 points per contest in his two seasons under Rhoades with the Rice Owls and was a highly sought after transfer, but like Tillman, posted questionable advanced defensive numbers.
Evans posted the second highest offensive box plus/minus number among Rice players who played at least 10 minutes on the season, but like Tillman, ranked second to last on the defensive end with two consecutive seasons of negative box plus/minus numbers (-2.5 as a freshman, -2.3 as a sophomore). That's not entirely a death blow for a VCU guard however, as both Melvin Johnson and Troy Daniels posted somewhat similar numbers on strong defensive VCU teams.
Those are the names everyone is talking about. Below are the names that aren't being focused on, but perhaps should.
Starting with Corey Douglas.
Douglas played nine games with Evans as a freshman at Rice, helping the Owls to a 6-3 record. Two of those losses were to top-100 teams, both on the road and one, against No.41 Texas Tech, a game the Owls lost by just one point. It was the beginning of Douglas' career before an injury sidelined him the remainder of the season, but a promising one none-the-less. Douglas finished his nine-game sample with a 130.7 offensive rating (note: that's incredibly good), posting an insane 85.7% true shooting percentage and blocking a decent but not dominant 5% of opponents shots.
Douglas committed to follow Rhoades to VCU before playing one JUCO season that gives us a larger sample of his effectiveness, finishing his one JUCO year with a 13.3-point, 7.9-rebound, 2.7-block per game average. He shot 53.4% from the field.
JUCORecruiting.com ranked him as the 33rd best prospect of 2018.
The Louisville native will make up one half of the Tillman replacement committee, joining rising sophomore Marcus Evans as VCU's likely center rotation.
Two other very curious additions are freshmen Vincent Williams and PJ Byrd.
Williams is a mega efficient do-it-all wing somewhat in the mold of Treveon Graham and Bradford Burgess, a 4-star high school recruit that drew the interest of former Xavier/current Louisville head coach, Chris Mack, but ultimately ended up at VCU. He could have a similar impact as freshmen versions of those two, which makes him a nice piece to add, but perhaps playing not quite as important of a role as Byrd.
Evans' injury status will no doubt effect just how early Byrd may be leaned upon as a key point guard option for the Rams.
As good as they all ended up being, Eric Maynor (28.7% TO rate), Joey Rodriguez (27.7%), Darius Theus (29.9%), Briante Weber (23.4%) and JeQuan Lewis (28.6%) struggled with turnovers as freshmen, meaning a feature PG role for Byrd might not prove to be the ideal scenario for a VCU team hoping to put last season's struggled behind it.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
I'm of the opinion VCU's defense will be improved. That's my "lead pipe lock", if you will.
More minutes for Marcus Santos-Silva -- who has been a rebounding machine in high school, AAU and last season at VCU and is VCU's returning leader in defensive box plus/minus -- combined with the addition of Douglas makes that basically a lock in my mind. The Rams ranked 214th nationally in two-point defense this past season, a number I think improves this year.
I also just like the general maturing of VCU's cast of hoopers. Jenkins, Mobley, Crowfield, Simms, Vann and Co. will all be a year older and hopefully a year wiser/better. That second part is not always the case but something I'm confident will happen this season.
Also, if Evans is available, VCU's point guard position massively upgrades.
The Chesapeake native has a CAREER true shooting percentage of 58.1% and an assist rate of a solid 22.1%. Keep in mind those are from his freshmen and sophomore seasons. That's a career true shooting percentage better than Troy Daniels and an assist rate just south of Briante Weber. Wow.
The Rams will hopefully be improved entering an Atlantic 10 with huge question marks from top to bottom.
Rhode Island has a talented returning core, but loses a ton of senior talent. Davidson is in the same boat. St. Bonaventure loses the ridiculous duo of Adams and Mobley. Saint Joseph's says goodbye to leading scorers Demery and Newkirk. Everyone else, including VCU, finished 9-9 or worse.
Analysts seem to be jumping on the bandwagons of George Mason, UMass and Saint Louis (Patelis has them all ranked in his top-4) but not so much that of VCU's despite the fact VCU defeated all of that group in particular on the road last season.
The conference should be up for grabs and an improved VCU team can take advantage of that fact.
