2018-19 Roster

GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
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2018-2019 roster (if Mike really wants to dance next yr as opposed to looking at a Year 3 push, when/if Evans is a senior):

Starters - Players 1-5
PG - Evans - Jr
Wing - Jenkins - Jr
Wing - Simms - Jr
Wing/Big - TBD (GT or JUCO) - Jr/Sr
Big - Douglas - So

Rotation - Players 6-10
PG/Wing - Crowfield - Jr
Wing - Vann - Jr
Wing/Big - Mobley - So
Wing/Big - TBD (GT or JUCO) - Jr/Sr
Big - MSS - So

Bench - Players 11-13 (PT depends on effectiveness, injury, foul trouble of first 10)
PG - Byrd - Fr
Wing - Curry - Fr
Wing - Williams - Fr

Mike's roster decisions in Apr-Jul 2018 will tell us whether he's really serious about next season or if he's focusing more on Years 3-5. If he's crafty, he can (and should) do both. You're definitely not dancing next year (especially as a non-P5) with no impact seniors.

Comments:
1)
Mobley/MSS are not starters (as Sophs) on an aspiring Top 45, at-large worthy team (if this is, indeed, the goal).
2) If Mike truly wants to run Havoc, MSS/Mobley may never be starter/big minute material. MSS may even want to look elsewhere if that's the case. A true Havoc roster needs to look more like West Virginia/Louisville (long, athletic, bouncy, rangy, quick, 94-ft types).
3) Crow/Vann (assuming they're around) need to be rotational pieces (only) until they show they've made the leap (i.e. shooting, defense, boards, toughness, IQ, etc - more well-rounded/effective players). They have the size and some the requisite skill sets. They need to make a big jump over the summer...........especially with their relatively weak, skinny bodies.
4) You're not going to convince quality, difference-making GTs/JUCOs to come play at VCU (instead of other destinations) unless they sense they will have a major role (starter or key rotational pieces/big minutes/touches/shots/etc) from the outset. Probably why we whiffed on some our major GT targets (Hamdy/Thompson/Alberts/etc) last year (and it cost us). Probably why we did get Billbury/Hamdy a few yrs ago (and it helped us).

Regardless, our roster needs to be significantly upgraded (size, strength, toughness, experience, skill, etc) if we're serious about being an at-large player "next year." Otherwise, just bring in more frosh, punt next yr, and shoot for 2020.

If you want to dance as a non-P5, realistically you need to (at least) be one of the Top 45 teams in the country. This year, we're at 132. A huge gap/leap right now. We're not making that leap next yr if we bring in more skinny/underdeveloped frosh. Our front line right now is weak/unimposing. We look like a CAA/Big South team.

The A-10 next yr will likely have no Top 45 programs pre-season (i.e. RPI-impacting conf wins). We're at Texas/UVA/ODU and in a tourney w/ Temple, St Johns, Cal. We'll be lucky to win two of those five as currently constructed. There are just not enough potential Top 75 wins on our schedule right now.

Mike has three major decisions to make (now that this season is over):
1) Full program commitment to Havoc going forward (or not)?
2) Do I go all-in to dance in 2019 (which he should w/ Evans/Vann possibly graduating in May 2019)?
3) Adjust staff/recruiting philosophies (and targets)?

The answer to these three questions will shape his roster/recruiting decisions and set the program back on course (or off).

Some things to chew on............

Mike Rhoades (four years as head coach):
45 yrs old
$1.2M salary
Head Coach/CEO of VCU basketball = Top 50 program (or was)
VCU (A-10) -- had recently been owner of 7 consecutive yr NCAA tournament appearance streak, 11 yrs w/ 24+ wins, 5 straight A-10 finals appearances, 115 home game sellout streak.
First Year at VCU (Quad 1/2 wins) = 0 (0-9) in 33 games

Career (as head coach):
Best wins - #76 ODU, #77 Bucknell, #100 San Francisco (all at home)
Best KP: Defense = 148, Offense = 109; Overall = 144 (as a non-P5, usually need be playing at a Top 50-ish KP level to dance)
Best RPI = 132 (as a non-P5, usually need a Top 50 RPI to be in the dance conversation)
Top 100 recruits = 0
Best Recruit = Marcus Evans
Post-Season = 1 NIT (23-12, Rice); 0 NCAAs

Next installment: 2018-19 Outlook (VCU, A-10/national landscape)
 
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Mar 2, 2014
1,349
1,758
2018-2019 roster (if Mike really wants to dance next yr as opposed to looking at a Year 3 push, when/if Evans is a senior):

Starters - Players 1-5
PG - Evans - Jr
Wing - Jenkins - Jr
Wing - Simms - Jr
Wing/Big - TBD (GT or JUCO) - Jr/Sr
Big - Douglas - So

Rotation - Players 6-10
PG/Wing - Crowfield - Jr
Wing - Vann - Jr
Wing/Big - Mobley - So
Wing/Big - TBD (GT or JUCO) - Jr/Sr
Big - MSS - So

Bench - Players 11-13 (PT depends on effectiveness, injury, foul trouble of first 10)
PG - Byrd - Fr
Wing - Curry - Fr
Wing - Williams - Fr

Mike's roster decisions in Apr-Jul 2018 will tell us whether he's really serious about next season or if he's focusing more on Years 3-5. If he's crafty, he can (and should) do both. You're definitely not dancing next year (especially as a non-P5) with no impact seniors.

Comments:
1)
Mobley/MSS are not starters (as Sophs) on an aspiring Top 45, at-large worthy team (if this is, indeed, the goal).
2) If Mike truly wants to run Havoc, MSS/Mobley may never be starter/big minute material. MSS may even want to look elsewhere if that's the case. A true Havoc roster needs to look more like West Virginia/Louisville (long, athletic, bouncy, rangy, quick, 94-ft types).
3) Crow/Vann (assuming they're around) need to be rotational pieces (only) until they show they've made the leap (i.e. shooting, defense, boards, toughness, IQ, etc - more well-rounded/effective players). They have the size and some the requisite skill sets. They need to make a big jump over the summer...........especially with their relatively weak, skinny bodies.
4) You're not going to convince quality, difference-making GTs/JUCOs to come play at VCU (instead of other destinations) unless they sense they will have a major role (starter or key rotational pieces/big minutes/touches/shots/etc) from the outset. Probably why we whiffed on some our major GT targets (Hamdy/Thompson/Alberts/etc) last year (and it cost us). Probably why we did get Billbury/Hamdy a few yrs ago (and it helped us).

Regardless, our roster needs to be significantly upgraded (size, strength, toughness, experience, skill, etc) if we're serious about being an at-large player "next year." Otherwise, just bring in more frosh, punt next yr, and shoot for 2020.

If you want to dance as a non-P5, realistically you need to (at least) be one of the Top 45 teams in the country. This year, we're at 132. A huge gap/leap right now. We're not making that leap next yr if we bring in more skinny/underdeveloped frosh. Our front line right now is weak/unimposing. We look like a CAA/Big South team.

The A-10 next yr will likely have no Top 45 programs pre-season (i.e. RPI-impacting conf wins). We're at Texas/UVA/ODU and in a tourney w/ Temple, St Johns, Cal. We'll be lucky to win two of those five as currently constructed. There are just not enough potential Top 75 wins on our schedule right now.

Mike has three major decisions to make (now that this season is over):
1) Full program commitment to Havoc going forward (or not)?
2) Do I go all-in to dance in 2019 (which he should w/ Evans/Vann possibly graduating in May 2019)?
3) Adjust staff/recruiting philosophies (and targets)?

The answer to these three questions will shape his roster/recruiting decisions and set the program back on course (or off).

Some things to chew on............

Mike Rhoades (four years as head coach):
45 yrs old
$1.2M salary
Head Coach/CEO of VCU basketball = Top 50 program (or was)
VCU (A-10) -- had recently been owner of 7 consecutive yr NCAA tournament appearance streak, 11 yrs w/ 24+ wins, 5 straight A-10 finals appearances, 115 home game sellout streak.
First Year at VCU (Quad 1/2 wins) = 0 (0-9) in 33 games

Career (as head coach):
Best wins - #76 ODU, #77 Bucknell, #100 San Francisco (all at home)
Best KP: Defense = 148, Offense = 109; Overall = 144 (as a non-P5, usually need be playing at a Top 50-ish KP level to dance)
Best RPI = 132 (as a non-P5, usually need a Top 50 RPI to be in the dance conversation)
Top 100 recruits = 0
Best Recruit = Marcus Evans
Post-Season = 1 NIT (23-12, Rice); 0 NCAAs

Next installment: 2018-19 Outlook (VCU, A-10/national landscape)[/Q
Both Mobley and Vann start. Not sure if Crowfield comes back. Looks like you have no Jackson, Djonkum or Maye, and i think Maye comes back.
 
Mar 2, 2014
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So not Djonkum, Maye or Jackson. I think Mobley is a starter no matter what, maybe Vann with Simms off the bench. I would not surpised if Crowfield doesn't come back, Simms is better. Maye or Boyd maybe running the point before the year is over.
 
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May 4, 2012
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We may want Douglas to be a big but he isnt. Hes a 3 who can play the 4 if pressed.
I agree that a GT big would be most helpful.
IF Rhoades insists on sticking with havoc 2.0 mobs will need to improve his omnidirectional quickness ( same with the rest) mainly by footwork and expanding his court vision to get that anticipation working for him. If he can do that he will be a big piece of the pie. If not Rhoades must consider adapting.
Still think Djonk is a huge asset just on the edge of great things. Hes capable of speed, got the h head for the game. Could be that ramhy quick center like Ju but with better handles.
 
May 4, 2012
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So not Djonkum, Maye or Jackson. I think Mobley is a starter no matter what, maybe Vann with Simms off the bench. I would not surpised if Crowfield doesn't come back, Simms is better. Maye or Boyd maybe running the point before the year is over.
Those 4 do seem most likely to check out. Certainly one atbthe very least.
 
May 4, 2012
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Makes up for it with his brain IMO.
He is strong between the ears and tgat can be leveraged to help him b etter anticipate but there really is no making up for it in a havoc like system. You simply have to be able to move yourself from point A to point B quickly enough. Just not the best system for his skillset.
 
May 4, 2012
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No way Mobs doesn't start. Heck, the offense may run through him next year. He didn't really look to score this year and I am pretty sure he can. Do we need havoc since we found zone defense 30 games in?
No we don't need it or want it but its Rhoades baby and he won't abandon it willingly as we saw this season.
 
Mar 2, 2014
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Not sure I understand how he would be a starter this year, and not next considering we just lost a 6'7" guy. If it is a matter of playing style, we will need to adapt to get him the most minutes possible, or he will hit the road. He didn't come here to lose, and I am pretty sure he didn't come here to come off the bench.
 
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