2020-21 Season Outlook

[Natty]

A quick look back at last season in A-10 play...

Minutes averaged (PER team rank) [full season box +/- team rank]: Note: I excluded Arnold because he played a total of 7 minutes
28.8 - Santos-Silva (2nd) [3rd]
27.5 - Jenkins (4th) [1st]
24.2 - Vann (7th) [9th]
24.1 - Hyland (5th) [2nd]
23.1 - Evans (8th) [8th]
23 - Simms (11th) [7th]
16.9 - Williams (10th) [10th]
15.4 - Curry (9th) [12th]
15.4 - Crowfield (13th) [11th]
11.1 - Douglas (6th) [6th]

The long and short of last season is coach basically went down with the ship, sticking with experienced players who not only weren't producing, but were STATISTICALLY really hurting our ability to win in a competitive A-10.

In theory one of the disadvantages we have this season is we aren't experienced, BUT, I would argue that last year that level of experience tied Coach Rhoades' hands, because let's be honest...he played it too conservative and would not make the needed changes. I literally asked him about that very problem WHILE it was happening and he said he was sticking with his guys. I think I recall him saying he had to have their backs, which is an honorable/noble approach, but proved to not be the smart approach. That means this year, with so many young pieces, we have a chance to ignore the experience and roll with the numbers. I do however worry that there is one player in particular that might sting us in the exact same way we got stung last season (experience over production).

Jarren + Hason notes:
Per 40 minutes in conference last season
Jarren 16.2 points, 5.9 rebounds on 63.7% A-10 true shooting percentage
Hason 17 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.5 blocks on 65.7% A-10 true shooting percentage

Those guys both averaged just about 8 minutes each in conference. Hason makes sense because he was behind Santos-Silva, who was both experienced and efficient, Jarren however was benched behind Kel (23 mpg for Kel in A-10 play, 7.8 for Jarren), which I think we paid a price for.

This year's experience (last year's PER)

R-Sr. - Corey Douglas (17.7)
Sr. - Levi Stockard (8.7)
Jr. - Vince Williams (11.2)
Jr. - KeyShawn Curry (11.4)
Jr. - Bendan Medley-Bacon (14.6)
So. - Bones Hyland (18)
So. - Jarren McAllister (19.4)
So. - Hason Ward (23.1)
So. - Tre Clark (10.7)
So. - Arnold Henderson (16.7)
Fr. - Jamir Watkins
Fr. - Josh Banks
Fr. - Mikeal Brown-Jones
Fr. - Ace Baldwin

I'm very curious to see what we do with the rotation because even though I do know people can make a jump from year to year (think MSS from frosh to soph year...a similar jump to one I think Tre could possibly make this season), I think there are opportunities to make the exact same mistake we made this year once again. I hope that is not the case though.

 

[AlienAiden]

Iam alright with younger people getting vaccinated 1st so they can get back to school and I can see VCU basketball again . Iam not a doctor though

Pretty sure I read that there will be four phases. If I remember correctly it is something like...Phase 1 is emergency personnel and high risk... Phase 2 is seniors... Phase 3 is college age and younger... Phase 4 is suckers like me.

 

[smiley4284]

Pretty sure I read that there will be four phases. If I remember correctly it is something like...Phase 1 is emergency personnel and high risk... Phase 2 is seniors... Phase 3 is college age and younger Phase 4 is suckers like me.

That seems like the logical order of vaccination. No reason young people should be suffering more because the grownups in the room made this worse than it should be. But that’s a different argument

 

[Wolfpack Ram]

I have to wonder what happens contact tracing wise if someone tests positive in the conference tournaments given the short turnaround to the NCAA tournament.

I think you are going to see the NCAA Tournament pushed back at least one week to address that possible scenario. Or, you are going to see conferences not play their post season conference tournament prior to the NCAA Tournament. This is going to be a very different/unusual year for college basketball.

 

[Wolfpack Ram]

A quick look back at last season in A-10 play...

Minutes averaged (PER team rank) [full season box +/- team rank]: Note: I excluded Arnold because he played a total of 7 minutes
28.8 - Santos-Silva (2nd) [3rd]
27.5 - Jenkins (4th) [1st]
24.2 - Vann (7th) [9th]
24.1 - Hyland (5th) [2nd]
23.1 - Evans (8th) [8th]
23 - Simms (11th) [7th]
16.9 - Williams (10th) [10th]
15.4 - Curry (9th) [12th]
15.4 - Crowfield (13th) [11th]
11.1 - Douglas (6th) [6th]

The long and short of last season is coach basically went down with the ship, sticking with experienced players who not only weren't producing, but were STATISTICALLY really hurting our ability to win in a competitive A-10.

In theory one of the disadvantages we have this season is we aren't experienced, BUT, I would argue that last year that level of experience tied Coach Rhoades' hands, because let's be honest...he played it too conservative and would not make the needed changes. I literally asked him about that very problem WHILE it was happening and he said he was sticking with his guys. I think I recall him saying he had to have their backs, which is an honorable/noble approach, but proved to not be the smart approach. That means this year, with so many young pieces, we have a chance to ignore the experience and roll with the numbers. I do however worry that there is one player in particular that might sting us in the exact same way we got stung last season (experience over production).

Jarren + Hason notes:
Per 40 minutes in conference last season
Jarren 16.2 points, 5.9 rebounds on 63.7% A-10 true shooting percentage
Hason 17 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.5 blocks on 65.7% A-10 true shooting percentage

Those guys both averaged just about 8 minutes each in conference. Hason makes sense because he was behind Santos-Silva, who was both experienced and efficient, Jarren however was benched behind Kel (23 mpg for Kel in A-10 play, 7.8 for Jarren), which I think we paid a price for.

This year's experience (last year's PER)

R-Sr. - Corey Douglas (17.7)
Sr. - Levi Stockard (8.7)
Jr. - Vince Williams (11.2)
Jr. - KeyShawn Curry (11.4)
Jr. - Bendan Medley-Bacon (14.6)
So. - Bones Hyland (18)
So. - Jarren McAllister (19.4)
So. - Hason Ward (23.1)
So. - Tre Clark (10.7)
So. - Arnold Henderson (16.7)
Fr. - Jamir Watkins
Fr. - Josh Banks
Fr. - Mikeal Brown-Jones
Fr. - Ace Baldwin

I'm very curious to see what we do with the rotation because even though I do know people can make a jump from year to year (think MSS from frosh to soph year...a similar jump to one I think Tre could possibly make this season), I think there are opportunities to make the exact same mistake we made this year once again. I hope that is not the case though.

I'll say it once again. Don't sleep on Jarren McAllister. The guy is efficient with the minutes he gets.

 

[Ramdog]

This is going to be a very different/unusual year for college basketball.

already is...when was the last time VCU was picked to finish 9th

 

[Violet Ram]

A quick look back at last season in A-10 play...

Minutes averaged (PER team rank) [full season box +/- team rank]: Note: I excluded Arnold because he played a total of 7 minutes
28.8 - Santos-Silva (2nd) [3rd]
27.5 - Jenkins (4th) [1st]
24.2 - Vann (7th) [9th]
24.1 - Hyland (5th) [2nd]
23.1 - Evans (8th) [8th]
23 - Simms (11th) [7th]
16.9 - Williams (10th) [10th]
15.4 - Curry (9th) [12th]
15.4 - Crowfield (13th) [11th]
11.1 - Douglas (6th) [6th]

The long and short of last season is coach basically went down with the ship, sticking with experienced players who not only weren't producing, but were STATISTICALLY really hurting our ability to win in a competitive A-10.

In theory one of the disadvantages we have this season is we aren't experienced, BUT, I would argue that last year that level of experience tied Coach Rhoades' hands, because let's be honest...he played it too conservative and would not make the needed changes. I literally asked him about that very problem WHILE it was happening and he said he was sticking with his guys. I think I recall him saying he had to have their backs, which is an honorable/noble approach, but proved to not be the smart approach. That means this year, with so many young pieces, we have a chance to ignore the experience and roll with the numbers. I do however worry that there is one player in particular that might sting us in the exact same way we got stung last season (experience over production).

Jarren + Hason notes:
Per 40 minutes in conference last season
Jarren 16.2 points, 5.9 rebounds on 63.7% A-10 true shooting percentage
Hason 17 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.5 blocks on 65.7% A-10 true shooting percentage

Those guys both averaged just about 8 minutes each in conference. Hason makes sense because he was behind Santos-Silva, who was both experienced and efficient, Jarren however was benched behind Kel (23 mpg for Kel in A-10 play, 7.8 for Jarren), which I think we paid a price for.

This year's experience (last year's PER)

R-Sr. - Corey Douglas (17.7)
Sr. - Levi Stockard (8.7)
Jr. - Vince Williams (11.2)
Jr. - KeyShawn Curry (11.4)
Jr. - Bendan Medley-Bacon (14.6)
So. - Bones Hyland (18)
So. - Jarren McAllister (19.4)
So. - Hason Ward (23.1)
So. - Tre Clark (10.7)
So. - Arnold Henderson (16.7)
Fr. - Jamir Watkins
Fr. - Josh Banks
Fr. - Mikeal Brown-Jones
Fr. - Ace Baldwin

I'm very curious to see what we do with the rotation because even though I do know people can make a jump from year to year (think MSS from frosh to soph year...a similar jump to one I think Tre could possibly make this season), I think there are opportunities to make the exact same mistake we made this year once again. I hope that is not the case though.

Nice dive. I would caveat that--from memory--Jarren normally came in when the game was already out-of-hand and played a predominant amount of his minutes against other bench players. So I'm still a wait-and-see on him, though agree he should be given a chance.

 

[Wolfpack Ram]

Pretty sure I read that there will be four phases. If I remember correctly it is something like...Phase 1 is emergency personnel and high risk... Phase 2 is seniors... Phase 3 is college age and younger... Phase 4 is suckers like me.

I'm willing to trade my draft pick for the right price!

 

[Wolfpack Ram]

already is...when was the last time VCU was picked to finish 9th

Had to be Sonny's last year, or one of Pollio's years at VCU. More to the point, VCU has only had 7 losing seasons in 50+ years. Mike Rhoades does not want to become part of that elite group (Pollio, Smith & McCarthy).

 

[Natty]

Had to be Sonny's last year, or one of Pollio's years at VCU. More to the point, VCU has only had 7 losing seasons in 50+ years. Mike Rhoades does not want to become part of that elite group (Pollio, Smith & McCarthy).

To be fair to Mike, I think he inherited a much tougher situation than both Shaka and Will.

Shaka inherited an eventual Final 4 roster plus a No.15 NBA Draft pick. Will had a very underrated group that included the likes of JeQuan, Mo, Melvin, Justin and Jordan. Mike inherited five total returning players: Justin, De'Ri, Johnny, IV and Malik, three of which were sophomores, but overall, just compare those rosters.

I think the best-case scenario in Mike's case is basically a Danny Hurley Rhody type of rebuild. Hurley didn't take Rhody to the tournament until his fifth season there, but that was the year HIS recruits got mature. I think Mike has been piecing things together with crazy glue and duct tape a bit to start things off and we were perhaps lucky to get a dominant A-10 season and tourney bid in just his second year, but I think the real returns come when his ATLANTIC 10 recruits mature.

Rhoades, from what I understand, was a major part of bringing some serious diamonds to VCU during our glory days, so we shouldn't discount what he did during our previous runs either.

Still though, Coach, if you're reading this...I'm begging y'all to start trusting the numbers a little more!

 

[TampaKAP]

Still though, Coach, if you're reading this...I'm begging y'all to start trusting the numbers a little more!

I too am an advocate of using the analytics. I do think a blend of Analytics and feel is required. I didn't think the loyalty, ride with the seniors because well they are seniors approach was right(Did I mention I hate participation awards) but at the same time I just watched the Tampa Bays Rays lose world series games(definitely 1 and probably another) because the analytics said it was the right time to take Blake Snell out when he was absolutely killing it.

 

[share the ball]

I too believe in the value of analytics as a tool to be used. As an outsider it is not clear to me how important analytics are to MR. At the NBA level they play 81 games a year so analytics carry a higher level of relevancy than at colleges where the season is barely 1/3 of an NBA season. In addition players are more fully developed at the NBA level than at the college level where their is dramatic change between a freshman and senior in performance (on average)
for me, it is tough to project how players that played a few minutes per game (and often against the second teams or in end of game garbage minutes when the games were out of reach) I never get to see them during those months of practice between seasons so hard to project are they taking the next steps in developing (like a MSS) or have reached their ceilings already (lots of former players fit this but I am not into listing names because that serves no purpose)
this unknown is what gives me my annual excitement as we approach the season - I am always (to a fault) optimistic about our rams - never expect us to finish below 4th in any conference (even if we were in the ACC) and think we are going to NCAA dance every year.
my biggest pet peeve with our coaches is simply that I WISH we would tighten our rotation to 8-9 players and give our top 3 more than 32 minutes of floor time each game (Bones deserves 33-35 mpg - I don't care if 5-8 minutes are at 90% - they will not be empty minutes like I have seen from some off the bench in the past
Go Rams and beat UNCC (we lost to them in late 70s when they went to Final 4 - good trivia for you young-ins)

 

[BradRamFan]

CBS:

Six teams who made the last NCAA Tournament, but won't make it back in 2021​

VCU Rams​

2019 seed: No. 8

The 2018-19 Rams won the Atlantic 10 regular season crowd with an impressive 16-2 league record but actually qualified for the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team after losing in the conference tournament. The Atlantic 10 seems to have gotten significantly deeper over the last couple of seasons, though, and VCU regressed to the pack while dealing with injuries last season. Now the roster is in a state of transition. Barring a run through the league tournament, the Rams are unlikely to be back in the Big Dance this season as an at-large bid seems out of reach with such a young team.

Post this poope on every players locker!

 

[VRam]

Pretty sure I read that there will be four phases. If I remember correctly it is something like...Phase 1 is emergency personnel and high risk... Phase 2 is seniors... Phase 3 is college age and younger... Phase 4 is suckers like me.

The line might not be that long. A lot of people whining about the pandemic probably won't get vaccinated.

 

[AlienAiden]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1328762773879316491