At-Large Breakdown (36 bids per yr) since 2013 (P6 vs non-P6):
2013 - 25 vs 11
2014 - 26 vs 10
2015 - 29 vs 7
2016 - 31 vs 5
2017 - 32 vs 4
2018 - 31 vs 5
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2019 - 30 vs 6 (beginning of NET era)
2020 - 30 vs 6 (COVID yr; projected)
2021 - 31 vs 5
2022 - 29 vs 7
2023 - 32 to 4 (some projections right now w/ A-10 as a 1-bid league*)
Resumes/metrics for "bubblers" Nevada, UNC, Clemson, Rutgers, Miss St, VCU, NC State, Pitt, and Ariz St can all provide legitimate reasons for inclusion/exclusion. (See Bracketologists comparison tool)
Political clout/influence/representation in the selection room will likely rule the day. NCAA (at-large) bids represent money, prestige, power, etc to (and for) conferences and affect jobs, careers, reputations, exposure, upward mobility, future success, TV contracts, recruiting, etc.
The selection decision(s) (and contingencies, if any) almost certainly were reached (one way or the other) last night (shortly after the conclusion of the FAU-UAB game).
Tidbits:
1) 2018 - A-10 got 2 at-large bids as the 10th ranked conf in KenPom.
2) 2019 - A-10 got 1 at-large bid as the 11th ranked conf in KenPom.
3) 2022 - A-10 got 1 at-large bid as the 10th ranked conf in KenPom.
4) 2023 - A-10 got x at-large bids as the 12th ranked conf in KenPom.
If VCU does not dance, it will be a first for the A-10 in many areas since we joined (2013):
1) A regular season champion is not selected
2) A 26-win team is not selected
3) A regular season champion and tourney finalist is not selected
4) A-10 is a one-bid league