- Dec 30, 2011
venting a bit. why does the a 10 suck so bad? why is it so hard to have three teams have good year at once? our top 5 should be in the same league as the big east, but never is. when teams who are perennially at the bottom start to turn things around they are replaced by teams who are just as bad as they were. seriously Fordham, gw, and Duquesne are all competing at a high level for the first time in a 5 years (Duquesne usually pretty good but horrid last year) just to be replaced by mason, Rhody, and Loyola. three teams who were supposed to have a good year. if all else fails we have Davidson to count on though.
Let's look at some of the teams:
- SLU is 5-2, with a blowout loss to Maryland (currently #22 in the AP Poll) and a narrow loss to #15 Auburn. They're not doing too badly, honestly. They play two more KP top-75 teams in OOC and travel to top-100 Iona, so if they don't lose any games they should obviously win, I think they'll be fine.
- Davidson is performing well but their schedule is not particularly strong: they only play one team ranked higher than #91 on KenPom during the non-conference schedule (Purdue). They really struggled against VMI. Still, I think they are probably the closest competition to SLU for the conference title.
- Dayton has underperformed badly since losing to UNLV, but a lot of it is due to attrition. Dayton was without Koby Brea for a while, and they just lost Kobe Elvis and Malachi Smith indefinitely. After laying a goose egg at Atlantis, they probably have no shot at any sort of postseason berth (NCAA or NIT) unless they pull a Richmond in the A-10 tournament. Despite everything they remain #54 in KenPom but I don't expect them to stay there long.
- Richmond is off to a weird start, but they have a few more opportunities for good wins (at Toledo, vs Drake, vs Clemson), so it's too early to speculate on them. They drew the short straw in conference play, though, so if they don't get those good OOC wins, they won't have many opportunities later.
- Fordham is 6-1 but their wins are against teams with the following KenPom ratings: 311, 331, 246, 338, 340, and 205. They were obliterated by their only KP top-75 opponent in their OOC schedule (#11 Arkansas). GW is 4-2 but their wins are over a non-D1, 263, 310, and 331.
- Duquesne is a glass cannon. They only play one more KP top-100 team in OOC (#96 DePaul, the worst team in the Big East). However, their blowout wins over basketball titans Montana, South Carolina State, and Alabama State are sure to get Bronny James to commit there. Realistically, they will likely fall to the basement very quickly when A-10 play starts.