Bracketology Thread

theyaintwantit

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Dec 22, 2009
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Quadrant 1 (Home 1-30) (Neutral 1-50) (Away 1-75)
Quadrant 2 (Home 31-75) (Neutral 51-100) (Away 75-135)
Quadrant 3 (Home 76-160) (Neutral 101-200) (Away 136-240)
Quadrant 4 (Home 161+) (Neutral 201+) (Away 241+)


We already know what our OOC games and first three A10 games will provide (or not provide) in terms of a resume so I won't discuss that.

We have 15 A10 games remaining and as of right now the games will probably fall into the following categories:

Landmine Q3/Q4 Can't Lose Matchups (barring any MASSIVE win streaks - these games will remain a Q3 or Q4):
@ Saint Joseph's (1/21) (current NET 220)
@ La Salle (1/25) (current NET 173)
vs George Mason (2/12) (current NET 138)
vs George Washington (2/29) (current NET 243)

Probably stuck as tricky Q3 Home Matchups (I don't see either team falling outside the Top160 nor rising into the Top75 so both should be competitive Q3 home games):
vs St. Bonaventure (1/18) (current NET 141)
vs Davidson (1/31) (current NET 112)

Teetering on Q2/Q3 (Based off of current NET rankings and expectations, all four of these matchups should be right on the Q2/Q3 line):
vs Richmond (1/28) (current NET 63)
@ UMass (2/26) (current NET 129)
vs Duquesne (3/3) (current NET 46)
@ Davidson (3/6) (current NET 112)

Teetering on Q1/Q2 (Based off of current NET rankings and exceptions, all three of these matchups should be right on the Q1/Q2 line):
@ Rhode Island (1/31) (current NET 66)
@ Richmond (2/15) (current NET 63)
@ Saint Louis (2/21) (current NET 47)

DEFINITE Q1 Move The Needle Opportunities (No explanation needed):
@ Dayton (1/14) (current NET 9)
vs Dayton (2/18) (current NET 9)

I am currently watching the GB-SEA playoff game, but I have college basketball on my brain. The loss to Rhody yesterday stung, but today is a new day and the rest of the season is ahead of us.

A 6-0 record in regards to the first two groups (6 games) feels VERY important. They won't be a cakewalk, but any of those resulting in a loss could leave us on the wrong end if we are on the bubble come March.

The other three groups (9 total games) feature two games that absolutely move the needle (both Dayton's), three road games (Rhody, Richmond, & SLU) that could be Q1 or Q2 depending on those teams year long results, two solid home opportunities (Richmond & Duquesne), and two road games (UMass & Davidson) that could round out a resume if it results in wins.

I apologize if this is long-winded. I don't want to be like GuardTheArc and act like I am the smartest person in the world, but I really want to provide what I feel like our remaining schedule looks like in terms of a resume builder. And to BracketForecast - I did not mean to hijack your thread. I actually started on this post before you created the Bracketology thread. I figured I would provide insight from a 27 year old who loves college basketball and believes the committee did a GREAT job in 2019 on selecting the field.
 

BracketForecast

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May 9, 2011
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Quadrant 1 (Home 1-30) (Neutral 1-50) (Away 1-75)
Quadrant 2 (Home 31-75) (Neutral 51-100) (Away 75-135)
Quadrant 3 (Home 76-160) (Neutral 101-200) (Away 136-240)
Quadrant 4 (Home 161+) (Neutral 201+) (Away 241+)


We already know what our OOC games and first three A10 games will provide (or not provide) in terms of a resume so I won't discuss that.

We have 15 A10 games remaining and as of right now the games will probably fall into the following categories:

Landmine Q3/Q4 Can't Lose Matchups (barring any MASSIVE win streaks - these games will remain a Q3 or Q4):
@ Saint Joseph's (1/21) (current NET 220)
@ La Salle (1/25) (current NET 173)
vs George Mason (2/12) (current NET 138)
vs George Washington (2/29) (current NET 243)

Probably stuck as tricky Q3 Home Matchups (I don't see either team falling outside the Top160 nor rising into the Top75 so both should be competitive Q3 home games):
vs St. Bonaventure (1/18) (current NET 141)
vs Davidson (1/31) (current NET 112)

Teetering on Q2/Q3 (Based off of current NET rankings and expectations, all four of these matchups should be right on the Q2/Q3 line):
vs Richmond (1/28) (current NET 63)
@ UMass (2/26) (current NET 129)
vs Duquesne (3/3) (current NET 46)
@ Davidson (3/6) (current NET 112)

Teetering on Q1/Q2 (Based off of current NET rankings and exceptions, all three of these matchups should be right on the Q1/Q2 line):
@ Rhode Island (1/31) (current NET 66)
@ Richmond (2/15) (current NET 63)
@ Saint Louis (2/21) (current NET 47)

DEFINITE Q1 Move The Needle Opportunities (No explanation needed):
@ Dayton (1/14) (current NET 9)
vs Dayton (2/18) (current NET 9)

I am currently watching the GB-SEA playoff game, but I have college basketball on my brain. The loss to Rhody yesterday stung, but today is a new day and the rest of the season is ahead of us.

A 6-0 record in regards to the first two groups (6 games) feels VERY important. They won't be a cakewalk, but any of those resulting in a loss could leave us on the wrong end if we are on the bubble come March.

The other three groups (9 total games) feature two games that absolutely move the needle (both Dayton's), three road games (Rhody, Richmond, & SLU) that could be Q1 or Q2 depending on those teams year long results, two solid home opportunities (Richmond & Duquesne), and two road games (UMass & Davidson) that could round out a resume if it results in wins.

I apologize if this is long-winded. I don't want to be like GuardTheArc and act like I am the smartest person in the world, but I really want to provide what I feel like our remaining schedule looks like in terms of a resume builder. And to BracketForecast - I did not mean to hijack your thread. I actually started on this post before you created the Bracketology thread. I figured I would provide insight from a 27 year old who loves college basketball and believes the committee did a GREAT job in 2019 on selecting the field.
This ain't my thread! The only thing I would dispute is that we can drop a couple of the Q3 games, provided we get to 2-3 Q1 wins and have a winning road and Q2 record. But having no Q3/4 losses would be a major feather in our cap if we are on the bubble in March. Most bubble teams cannot say the same.
 

Natty

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Related note: There is so much 2014 VCU in this 2020 VCU team.

The 2014 Rams went 12-3 in the non-conference with one MONSTER road win at UVA and one decent road win at Belmont (No.97). Rams started 13-4 with all four losses coming against top-100 teams (were dominated by Florida State). That VCU team wreaked havoc (No.1 nationally in turnover percentage) but struggled to score, ranking 289th nationally in offensive two-point percentage at 45.6% (this year's group is at 47.7%).

At Dayton is VCU's 2020 version of at UVA. A win would be gigantic. The good news too is VCU also gets a home shot at that top-10 kenpom team as well...but winning on the road is everything.
 

theyaintwantit

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Dec 22, 2009
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Related note: There is so much 2014 VCU in this 2020 VCU team.

The 2014 Rams went 12-3 in the non-conference with one MONSTER road win at UVA and one decent road win at Belmont (No.97). Rams started 13-4 with all four losses coming against top-100 teams (were dominated by Florida State). That VCU team wreaked havoc (No.1 nationally in turnover percentage) but struggled to score, ranking 289th nationally in offensive two-point percentage at 45.6% (this year's group is at 47.7%).

At Dayton is VCU's 2020 version of at UVA. A win would be gigantic. The good news too is VCU also gets a home shot at that top-10 kenpom team as well...but winning on the road is everything.
I was actually telling a friend of mine the same thing during our road George Mason game last week. 2013-2014 was my junior year of school and VCU felt like a really good, but frustrating team. Our RPI was around 16 by March, but I never felt like we looked that good and too often our offensive scheme was "dribble around for 20 seconds and then give the ball to Treveon and get the f/// out of the way."

That road W at UVA just got better and better from January through February and into March and to SS when UVA won the ACC Tournament.
 

BracketForecast

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May 9, 2011
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The Mountain West has once again failed its most elite team. SDSU is currently a 1 seed, but has no Q1 games remaining. Even one slip up could knock them down to a 2.
 
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RESRam

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Apr 21, 2009
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I was actually telling a friend of mine the same thing during our road George Mason game last week. 2013-2014 was my junior year of school and VCU felt like a really good, but frustrating team. Our RPI was around 16 by March, but I never felt like we looked that good and too often our offensive scheme was "dribble around for 20 seconds and then give the ball to Treveon and get the f/// out of the way."

That road W at UVA just got better and better from January through February and into March and to SS when UVA won the ACC Tournament.
That offense was called “Tre and pray”😄
 

Ramcounter

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Dec 7, 2011
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Haven't gotten to VCU quite yet, but it's not gonna take a masterpiece to make the field this year. I'm only on the 5-6 line and I'm already running into teams that are 2-5 in Q1 games.
What do you predict conference record wise would get VCU safely in?
 

rvaram

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Mar 26, 2012
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This team doesn't have a freight train on it like Graham. As far as our seniors go, I think what we've seen so far this season is what we're going to get. Hopefully some of the younger guys can continue getting better and better and a healthy crowfield will help us get some more points on the board.