Hey all, Dayton fan here. I come in peace.
It's been very interesting tracking our two programs this year. Put me in the camp that thinks Dayton and VCU will be assuming our rightful places at the top of the A10 sooner rather than later. Coaching changes are tough. You guys have had tremendous success over the last 8-10 years, and have withstood the numerous challenges that go along with a coaching change.
Here's why I think both VCU and Dayton will be fine (by "fine" I mean back near the top of the league standings, in position for an at-large NCAA bid most seasons): we both are programs, we both have tremendous fan support and facilities (at the top of the league without a doubt), and we both have the ability to get better recruits (due in large part to the reasons listed before this one).
I don't want to get too deep into the weeds comparing Rhoades and Grant - I think both are great guys, classy, great representatives for themselves and their institution. Coaching acumen, strategy, gameplanning, in-game adjustments... these are all going to be fine for both guys. A great coach can certainly make a difference, but in general, in the A10, the teams with the best players win. Look at the top two teams this year: Rhody has a bunch of seniors, some of them are 5th-year seniors, and they have an excellent collection of talent all across the board. I dislike Hurley, but respect their program, and there's no doubt they have the best talent in the league this year. Voila! They are in first place. I'd argue Bona has the second best talent. Adams and Mobley are seasoned, dynamic scorers. They have other pieces who are experienced guys, more physically and mentally mature, and they have put themselves back in position to be considered for an at-large.
Dayton had the 7th fewest returning minutes in D1, we have gotten about zero production from junior Xeyrius Williams (who had a back injury at the start of the year but now appears to just be in the doghouse). We also lost junior Ryan Mikesell to injury as he had surgeries on both hips and is out the whole year. Our junior PG John Crosby is a super nice guy by all accounts and a hard worker but is just not good enough - he's a turnover waiting to happen - three TOs was his only stat in his brief stint at our game @ the Stu last week. We have one senior and one junior (who is also coming off a a severe injury last year). We have one sophomore who played a total of 52 minutes last year, we start two freshman and that soph, and of course also lost our other junior-to-be Sam Miller in a well-publicized drunken bar/jail fight. Plus, we lost 4 seniors who were the winningest class in school history and also the winningest coach in recent history. And there's plenty of UD fans who are bitching and moaning about why aren't we better this year.
My point is not to hijack this thread and turn it into a UD discussion. But look at what you guys lost from last year! An absolute warrior in Mo Alie-Cox - an experienced BIG guy who rarely made mistakes and was an monster in the paint. JeQuan Lewis who was steady on offense, a pest on D, and could be counted on in big moments. Doug Brooks was your version of Tony Allen - a headache to play against, a motor that never stopped. Burgess was good. Samir Doughty was a guy UD really wanted, and he has potential, can make a big shot, create his own shot.
Your squad has some good talent remaining but they are really young. Santos-Silva is going to be a beast in the middle. Mobley has all kinds of BB IQ, great passing ability and he's a very good shooter for his size. Once he gets in better shape, look out. Jenkins has a lot of tools and I'm scared the light bulb is going to go off for him soon - I don't think he even realizes how good he can be - but of course he missed a lot of last season with injury and couldn't develop as much as you might have hoped. Marcus Evans by all accounts is going to be very good in the A10, and you guys are bringing in some more solid talent as well - I know UD really wanted Vince Williams. You never know about JuCo guys, but at least they come in physically mature.
So the pieces are there for both teams to get back on top of the league. Rhoades has been a good coach wherever he's been. Grant has been a good coach as well (you guys know this for sure). I was sad when Grant left VCU - I thought it was a bad career move for him at the time.
But besides the actual roster turnover, it takes time for a guy to build what he wants to build, even if he is continuing a lot of what the guy before him did. Y'all have been incredibly fortunate with how smooth things have gone from Capel to Grant to Smart to Wade, and have hit a hiccup here this year with the transition to Rhoades. But I think if you look at the rosters along the way, you'll find the answer there more than in the coach. Wade inherited a really good team and he did a really good job with it Smart inherited a really good team and did a great job with it. Grant inherited a good VCU squad as well. Rhoades inherited a roster that just lost Alie-Cox, Lewis, Doughty, Brooks, Burgess, Hamdy-Mohamed et al.
So anyway, to answer the question of why VCU (and Dayton) will be fine, it is because we both have some good (but young) players in the fold and we will be bringing more good players in the fold. This is not to say that Rhoades and Grant have no coaching weaknesses, but in the A10, if you have the best players, you're going to end up near the top of the conference.
I think next year, both Dayton and VCU will be back in the top 6 of the league and in 2019-20, we'll be battling for the top spot again. Hopefully my Flyers can beat your Rams on Senior Night to clinch the A10 regular season title again!
Our two proud programs will right the ships. I think both have the right guy at the helm.