Covid-19 info thread

Aug 7, 2012
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Even though it’s not basketball related, we should have a thread for info on the disease and what’s going on around the world and locally. The other thread was more about the tournament and some people might not be watching it anymore.

Do not assume that this is a disease that just affects the old. They are more susceptible, but younger patients have been affected too. France is starting to move towards the situation that Italy has been in. We might be a week or so behind that. Maybe we’ll get lucky since we‘re possibly shutting things down a little earlier. Let’s hope.


More and more stuff will be shutting down.

 

BradRamFan

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May 1, 2009
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As an fyi, it took the US 8 days to go from 100-1000 infections, 3 days to go from 1000-2000 infections, and just 2 days to go from 2000-3000 infections. We are still very much on the exponential infection rate curve and have not yet reached the midpoint. And keep in mind, these number are based on confirmed testing with very limited test availability. As tests become more widely available, we may see that number shoot up even faster.

And because the infection numbers are shooting up so fast, it makes the death rate due to COVID-19 appear to drop. That is an incorrect assumption because the rate to time of death for the disease pretty much stays the same (barring some newly available treatment) while infection rate numbers can go up greatly.

I think the trend of social distancing (I predict that will be the 2020 buzzword of the year) will greatly help slow the infection rate. But if people get complacent and see that the infection rate has plateaued and feel it's time to get back out there amongst the people, we might see a resurgence that grows even faster than what we have now. The question is, how long can people shut themselves away. Most people aren't used to living the lifestyle of the unabomber :) (I apologize to the youngin's out there who have no clue what a unabomber is or how he lived - can't believe it's been 25 years!)
 

deadpoet

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Feb 11, 2010
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Some good news out of Maryland.
"Friday, Montgomery County’s Chief Health Officer Dr. Travis Gayles said the first three individuals in the state who tested positive for the virus have been able to resume their everyday lives, according to Fox 5."
Three more are doing well and no deaths reported in Maryland.
With the increase of testing more cases will be reported in the next few weeks. In other words there are a lot of people walking around unaware that they are infected. However, the death rate has not increased.

Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine doctor at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, explained.

“What I was able to find by looking at a few other data sources, rather than just the big flashy numbers, was that there’s actually a lot of reason to be reassured that the numbers are a lot lower,” said Faust.
Because only the sickest people are showing up at hospitals, this group is likely over-represented among the full population of people who have COVID-19, according to Faust. Most COVID-19 cases are mild, and many individuals will never even see a health care provider to be tested.
Right now, death rate estimates vary per country. The best estimates for South Korea put COVID-19’s fatality rate at 0.6%, and a recent study released on the death the rate in China — but outside hard-hit Wuhan — hovered just above that, at 0.7%.
Any death is bad but this seems to be good news and should underscore the advice to be vigilant not panic.
 

duncanlamb

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Apr 22, 2009
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pandemic has led authorities around the globe to cancel concerts and sporting events, and even shut down daily activities in some places, Mexico City is going ahead with Vive Latino — one of the most important music festivals in the country.

Some acts backed out, but tens of thousands of music fans flocked on Saturday to the first day of the festival, which still expected Guns N’ Roses, Carlos Vives and Zoe to be among its headliners. Organizers said more than 70,000 tickets had been sold for each of the festival’s two days.


Mexican Deputy Health Minister Hugo Lopez-Gatell said contagion from the United States was a threat.

"If it were technically necessary to consider mechanisms of restriction or stronger surveillance we would have to take into account not that Mexico would bring the virus to the United States, rather that the United States could bring it here," he told a news conference."
 

duncanlamb

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Apr 22, 2009
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this is what I was saying before in the other thread. Cultural norms play a huge factor in transmission.



"Mexicans are finding it difficult to shake the habit of greeting friends, family and even strangers with a handshake, hug or kiss on the cheek despite warnings they could spread coronavirus, with the practice on display at a major banking conference.".

Hispanics, Italians, the French etc. kiss each other on the cheek in salutations. It's not easy custom to break.


Americans not so much. We don't normally that display that level of affection when greeting one another and a reason we will adapt to "social distancing" easier than other countries.
 

deadpoet

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Feb 11, 2010
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Dr. Fauci seems to be a go to guy. I'm not sure about the above chart without some context. Italy is in the EU and has open borders. There are hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers in Italy and the free market does not appear to be involved in Italian health care. Here you get out the word and Walgreens, Walmart, CVS and anyone or any private company available jumps in to assist. I'm hoping the word out of Israel is accurate. A vaccine would be excellent news. Read the below article by Dr. Fauci in the New England Journal of Medicine. He is a very good source of information. The doc has said in other interviews that increased testing will reveal the enormity of this virus since most people don't even know they have it.
Here is the doc's article.