Efficiency and lineups: last year versus this year

[Natty]

Why are you replacing Baldwin with Clarke in the starting lineup?

Baldwin is a pass first pg who gets everyone else involved first, he already has an established chemistry with bones going back at least 5 yesars starting with the tressi gang.

LOOOOVE Tre Clark, Love Bones Hyland....but Ace Baldwin is a true point guard that 1000% needs to be our starting PG.

The Statistical Reasoning:

Assist Rate
Ace 36.7% (it was up over 40%)
Tre 18.7%
Bones 13.8%

Note: that assist rate from Ace currently is better than any season from Marcus Evans, Johnny Williams, JeQuan Lewis, Briante Weber, Darius Theus, Joey Rodriguez and is better than Eric's freshman season and if he can get back up over 41% (where he was), it would be better than any of Eric's assist rate seasons as well. That's a big deal.

Turnover Rate
Ace 23%
Tre 27.1%
Bones 18%

So just clearly the best assist to turnover ratio we've got on this team.

The long and short of it is it's just a different position and Ace is reminding us all what it's like to have a "true PG" running that spot. It's like playing Walter Peyton at QB over Jim McMahon because he's a better overall player. Sometimes you can do some different things with your lineups and sometimes really having guys who have certain abilities in certain positions is actually a really big deal and can make an offense go. So with that, it's why you're seeing Tre come off the bench as our backup point guard, but also as a backup 2-guard AND in our three-guard lineup, sometimes a backup 3 as well. So there's Tre serious value, is while he may not start, he is coming in at three different positions and getting a good amount of burn as well his sophomore year (6th on the team in minutes at 17 mpg, up from 7.3 last season and keep in mind Troy Daniels, an NBA player, averaged 6 and then 4 minutes his first two seasons when Mike was Associate Head Coach under Shaka...so Tre is getting some real burn here as a sophomore). Then I think in a similar way, that's why you get Bones as the starting 2 over Tre, because of his proven ability to consistently hit threes (41.9% career 3p%) and thus, help spread the floor. It's been great to see Vince get hot from deep this season (I pray that sticks), but so far Bones is the only guy on the roster who has CONSISTENTLY shown he can get hot and stay hot from deep. It's really a positional thing and I think why you'll see that unique ability keep him playing big minutes even if you can make a case that Tre is our best all-around guard (leads that trio in overall +/- and is second to Bones in PER...but clearly is our best defensive guard right now).

So yeah, I just think it's a positional thing. Either way, all these dudes are gonna play and as long as they all keep their heads right, they are all gonna keep improving and all have serious serious career potential if they just (and I hate to go here with it...)..."trust the process".

 

[duncanlamb]

like playing Walter Peyton at QB over Jim McMahon because he's a better overall player. Sometimes you can do some different things with

Actually, Walter Payton was a better passer than Jim McMahon.

 

[Ululating Daddy]

LOOOOVE Tre Clark, Love Bones Hyland....but Ace Baldwin is a true point guard that 1000% needs to be our starting PG.

The Statistical Reasoning:

Assist Rate
Ace 36.7% (it was up over 40%)
Tre 18.7%
Bones 13.8%

Note: that assist rate from Ace currently is better than any season from Marcus Evans, Johnny Williams, JeQuan Lewis, Briante Weber, Darius Theus, Joey Rodriguez and is better than Eric's freshman season and if he can get back up over 41% (where he was), it would be better than any of Eric's assist rate seasons as well. That's a big deal.

Turnover Rate
Ace 23%
Tre 27.1%
Bones 18%

So just clearly the best assist to turnover ratio we've got on this team.

The long and short of it is it's just a different position and Ace is reminding us all what it's like to have a "true PG" running that spot. It's like playing Walter Peyton at QB over Jim McMahon because he's a better overall player. Sometimes you can do some different things with your lineups and sometimes really having guys who have certain abilities in certain positions is actually a really big deal and can make an offense go. So with that, it's why you're seeing Tre come off the bench as our backup point guard, but also as a backup 2-guard AND in our three-guard lineup, sometimes a backup 3 as well. So there's Tre serious value, is while he may not start, he is coming in at three different positions and getting a good amount of burn as well his sophomore year (6th on the team in minutes at 17 mpg, up from 7.3 last season and keep in mind Troy Daniels, an NBA player, averaged 6 and then 4 minutes his first two seasons when Mike was Associate Head Coach under Shaka...so Tre is getting some real burn here as a sophomore). Then I think in a similar way, that's why you get Bones as the starting 2 over Tre, because of his proven ability to consistently hit threes (41.9% career 3p%) and thus, help spread the floor. It's been great to see Vince get hot from deep this season (I pray that sticks), but so far Bones is the only guy on the roster who has CONSISTENTLY shown he can get hot and stay hot from deep. It's really a positional thing and I think why you'll see that unique ability keep him playing big minutes even if you can make a case that Tre is our best all-around guard (leads that trio in overall +/- and is second to Bones in PER...but clearly is our best defensive guard right now).

So yeah, I just think it's a positional thing. Either way, all these dudes are gonna play and as long as they all keep their heads right, they are all gonna keep improving and all have serious serious career potential if they just (and I hate to go here with it...)..."trust the process".

Agree 100%. The PxP guy on the odu broadcast talked about how Mike has a lot of options on the roster this year. This is a perfect example.

 

[Natty]

Gotta add one HUGE reason we've had a ton of success this year is the double-big lineups, particularly with Corey & Hason (that I was BEGGING for last year)...is working amazingly.

Consider that we are 8th in the nation in defensive steals percentage. That is scary for our opponents and it's something we've always been pretty good at the last decade plus. NOW...add a lineup we've been using that employs BOTH Corey & Hason, a combined blocks percentage of just shy of 25%....and we have a brutal brutal brutal defense for our opponents to face. Just having not one but TWO bucket-erasers on the court is such an advantage. Our team's 15.3% blocks percentage is the best blocks percentage defense we've had since kenpom has tracked the stat (so our best since at least 2002). That is just suuuuch an underrated thing right now. Lots of talk of havoc obviously because that's what VCU is known for, but it really frees up your guards a bit to take some Weber-like chances on steals when if you get beat you've got those Ward and Douglas walls back there. Hason's 15.3% blocks percentage is currently better than Larry's sophomore and junior seasons.

 

[Ululating Daddy]

Depth up front. 5 players this year at 6'8" or better, vs 2 last year.

 

[DisplacedRam]

BOTH Corey & Hason, a combined blocks percentage of just shy of 25%....and we have a brutal brutal brutal defense for our opponents to face. Just having not one but TWO bucket-erasers on the court is such an advantage. Our team's 15.3% blocks percentage is the best blocks percentage defense we've had since kenpom has tracked the stat (so our best since at least 2002). That is just suuuuch an underrated thing right now.

Something that has really stuck out to me in really all of our games is how often an opponent driving to the hoop and just as they are trying to get their shot off you see 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or more hands (depending on who all is on the court) shooting up around them hunting for a block. Doesn't matter how crafty you are in the paint that is just going to be a low percentage shot no matter what. Watch for it tonight!

 

[Ramdog]

missing link...rebounding...need to keep improving there....that is the last piece of defense

 

[PRock]

missing link...rebounding...need to keep improving there....that is the last piece of defense

....and the first piece of offense

 

[BracketForecast]

Hason's 15.3% blocks percentage is currently better than Larry's sophomore and junior seasons.

Currently 9th nationally.

 

[share the ball]

you can make a case that Tre is our best all-around guard (leads that trio in overall +/- and is second to Bones in PER...but clearly is our best defensive guard right now).

always enjoy reading your posts - they are informed and informative and never any of those vinegar laced posts that creep into the message board

I am an analytics novice but believe in them (to me I am now a 50% analytics and 50% eye test type) - to me the sample size has to be significant to really make any conclusions and would love to see a players analytics over at least a 25 game minimum to a 50 game span (NBA analytics gurus often talk about 2 seasons of data to draw real conclusions because of all the variables) but clearly we will never see that type of data for college players because their college careers are so much shorter
help me understand why you think Tre is clearly our best defensive guard (to me I am have a hard time differentiating between Ace and Tre on the defensive end - the eye test part of it I see Ace playing good on ball defense and Tre playing better off ball defense (henceforth more of those off ball steals by anticipating passes) - Tre clearly has one year of experience on Ace in learning college D and playing all last year in practice against our starters so I would expect an edge for Tre for the 1st half of the year because of that.
Bones has a ways to go on D IMHO (to get to the next level) but his anticipation (court savvy) and length is his greatest asset in the passing lanes, though his strength could be improved
Go rams

 

[Natty]

always enjoy reading your posts - they are informed and informative and never any of those vinegar laced posts that creep into the message board

I am an analytics novice but believe in them (to me I am now a 50% analytics and 50% eye test type) - to me the sample size has to be significant to really make any conclusions and would love to see a players analytics over at least a 25 game minimum to a 50 game span (NBA analytics gurus often talk about 2 seasons of data to draw real conclusions because of all the variables) but clearly we will never see that type of data for college players because their college careers are so much shorter
help me understand why you think Tre is clearly our best defensive guard (to me I am have a hard time differentiating between Ace and Tre on the defensive end - the eye test part of it I see Ace playing good on ball defense and Tre playing better off ball defense (henceforth more of those off ball steals by anticipating passes) - Tre clearly has one year of experience on Ace in learning college D and playing all last year in practice against our starters so I would expect an edge for Tre for the 1st half of the year because of that.
Bones has a ways to go on D IMHO (to get to the next level) but his anticipation (court savvy) and length is his greatest asset in the passing lanes, though his strength could be improved
Go rams

Couple reasons I think Tre is our best defensive guard, starting with the numbers.

Statistical Reasons
His defensive box +/- is +7.8 (our next best guard is Ace at +4.5)
His 7.3% steals percentage leads the team & is just shy of Bri's sophomore 7.6% that led the nation
5.3 steals per 40 minutes is tops on the team and almost double the runner-up

Eye Test / Player Approval
It's not a head-scratcher that he leads in the numbers when you watch him play. Defensively he just makes things happen and that's not a knock on Ace at all, who's defense (ESPECIALLY as a freshman)...I absolutely love. I sit basically "with" (which in COVID era means near) Ed Nixon at every game. We talk about these games throughout and Ed started for our Final 4 team because defense was what he was known for and while I know he loves all these dudes, he's definitely commented on Tre being "his guy".

Also FWIW I was told right before we got a commitment from Tre was getting a lot of interest from UVA (I think I recall hearing they went to visit him a couple times at the end there), speaking of teams who like to play some defense. Every time I watch Tre I think about that and you can clearly see why he was on their radar.

 

[AlienAiden]

missing link...rebounding...need to keep improving there....that is the last piece of defense

Just a simple eye test from the A&T and ODU games Brown-Jones might be our best rebounder. He has aggression around the glass. He is not getting minutes now but one day he is gonna be around a 10 rebound a night guy. Right now the guards are leading the team in rebounding. Last time I checked it was Curry who led the team. Vince did a good job last night.

 

[Natty]

Just a simple eye test from the A&T and ODU games Brown-Jones might be our best rebounder. He has aggression around the glass. He is not getting minutes now but one day he is gonna be around a 10 rebound a night guy. Right now the guards are leading the team in rebounding. Last time I checked it was Curry who led the team. Vince did a good job last night.

Speaking of efficiency and MBJ...

Mikeal's +3 defensive box +/- is 6th on the team and his our second leading rebounder while in at a 13.8% total rebound percentage. His 63% true shooting percentage is third on the team as well and he's played 82 minutes, so while small, definitely not a walk-on sample early in (he's played dub-digit minutes five of his 8 games).

I think right now until Levi starts SPRINTING back out of traps, MBJ prob deserves to dig into some of his minutes, who's -1.9 overall +/- ranks 10th on the team -- all nine people in front of him are at least +3.6 and keep in mind Levi plays a large percentage of his minutes with the starters who are posting +8.7 (Bones), +6.3 (Vince), +6 (Corey) and +5.9 (Ace), so it's a real statistical outlier, which is basically always either a red flag in a situation like that OR...in a situation like with Javonte Green at Radford (now with the Celtics) where it's so much higher than everyone else's, it's a sign that you've got a serious hooper in your midst. I just think all of that is something to monitor (and address if you're the staff).

MBJ ain't no freshman shrimp either. Dude is passing the numbers tests, but eye test as well (plus he played a post-grad year for a LEGIT IMG program...a team that could beat a ton of college squads). That guy has the body of an NBA player already and can REALLY move at 6'8 220 (and fly). His time will clearly come and I think he'll have more double-digit minute games this season (and he'll hit double-digit scoring again like he did against ODU just two games ago), but personally I'd make it my business to make sure he was getting double-digit minutes even this early into his career.

 

[AlienAiden]

There has been movement in these minutes the last couple of games.

 

[Sethjax]

Jimmy Clark is a baller....if we didn't lock him up when we did he would likely be playing down the road at JPJ