For Funsies: Conference Reallignment/Creation

VCU Heel

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My current prediction is that the Big 12 schools are going to try to go their own ways and find new conferences. If a couple are successful, then the whole conference falls apart. The most likely landing spots:

Texas - SEC
Oklahoma - SEC

Texas Tech - PAC-12
Oklahoma State - PAC-12

Kansas - Big Ten
Iowa State - Big Ten

Baylor - AAC
TCU - AAC
Kansas State - AAC
West Virginia - AAC

I think that WVU will want the ACC, but the ACC isn’t going to expand at all until Notre Dame either joins or goes elsewhere. They’ll stay at an even number and add a second team with Notre Dame (which I think will happen at some point this decade). WVU may make the list at that time, but it’s not happening now.

This will bring the SEC to 16 teams, the PAC-12 to 14 teams, and the Big Ten to 16 teams, with the ACC staying at 14 teams. The AAC will have 15 teams for both football and basketball (14 that play both and Navy/Wichita State splitting the 15th spot), so they’ll probably either try to add one more team from C-USA or do another football/basketball split with Army/non-football school to be named later.
 
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My current prediction is that the Big 12 schools are going to try to go their own ways and find new conferences. If a couple are successful, then the whole conference falls apart. The most likely landing spots:

Texas - SEC
Oklahoma - SEC

Texas Tech - PAC-12
Oklahoma State - PAC-12

Kansas - Big Ten
Iowa State - Big Ten

Baylor - AAC
TCU - AAC
Kansas State - AAC
West Virginia - AAC

I think that WVU will want the ACC, but the ACC isn’t going to expand at all until Notre Dame either joins or goes elsewhere. They’ll stay at an even number and add a second team with Notre Dame (which I think will happen at some point this decade). WVU may make the list at that time, but it’s not happening now.

This will bring the SEC to 16 teams, the PAC-12 to 14 teams, and the Big Ten to 16 teams, with the ACC staying at 14 teams.
makes lots of sense - I would add maybe Pac 12 jumps to 16 with additions of Boise St and San Diego St in addition to the 2 you identify
what is your thinking about big 10 and ND and if not them would Syracuse be a better prospect for Big 10 than ISU
Gotta think the goal of big 4 conferences will be 16 teams
 
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My current prediction is that the Big 12 schools are going to try to go their own ways and find new conferences. If a couple are successful, then the whole conference falls apart. The most likely landing spots:

Texas - SEC
Oklahoma - SEC

Texas Tech - PAC-12
Oklahoma State - PAC-12

Kansas - Big Ten
Iowa State - Big Ten

Baylor - AAC
TCU - AAC
Kansas State - AAC
West Virginia - AAC

I think that WVU will want the ACC, but the ACC isn’t going to expand at all until Notre Dame either joins or goes elsewhere. They’ll stay at an even number and add a second team with Notre Dame (which I think will happen at some point this decade). WVU may make the list at that time, but it’s not happening now.

This will bring the SEC to 16 teams, the PAC-12 to 14 teams, and the Big Ten to 16 teams, with the ACC staying at 14 teams. The AAC will have 15 teams for both football and basketball (14 that play both and Navy/Wichita State splitting the 15th spot), so they’ll probably either try to add one more team from C-USA or do another football/basketball split with Army/non-football school to be named later.
Heel, I go way back with WVU football. They played on a regular basis Va Tech, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Boston College, now all in the ACC. They also played Penn State. No one made academics an issue. I do enjoy your analysis.
 

VCU Heel

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makes lots of sense - I would add maybe Pac 12 jumps to 16 with additions of Boise St and San Diego St in addition to the 2 you identify
what is your thinking about big 10 and ND and if not them would Syracuse be a better prospect for Big 10 than ISU
Gotta think the goal of big 4 conferences will be 16 teams
Notre Dame is signed with the ACC in all sports but football and to play 4 OOC games a year against the ACC in football through the 2035 season. That makes the ACC the easiest option. They’d have to pay the ACC a pretty significant buyout to go to the Big Ten. They have alumni/donors that want to remain independent in football forever, but I think the athletic department sees the writing on the wall and that part of the reason they have this deal with the ACC is to ease those people into the inevitable.

As for teams like UNC, UVA, and Syracuse going to the Big Ten as has been discussed by some here. The ACC schools are all part of a Grant of Rights agreement through 2035. Anyone that left the conference now would be on a massive financial hook. Part of the reason Texas and Oklahoma can leave now is that their GOR runs out in 2025. That still leaves them on the hook for a $76 million buyout each. But leaving the ACC right now might be more in the range of $40 million a year times the 14 years left on the GOR… so something like $560 million. That number might not be completely accurate, but it would be a massive amount of money. No team is leaving the ACC for at least a decade.

There’s no rush for the any of the other P5 conferences to get to 16 teams just because the SEC is. They’ll add the right teams if available and try to stay at an even number for football scheduling purposes.

Texas Tech is a large, public school with 40,000 students and the third largest fan base in Texas (very large following in Houston). If the PAC-12 ever wants to enter the Texas market, then Texas Tech is the school to do it with. I think the PAC-12 will probably want to stay away from the religiously affiliated schools like Baylor, TCU, and SMU. If they wanted another Texas school, then Houston might make more sense. But there are diminishing returns on adding a second school from a state, even a state as large as Texas. I think it would make sense for them to also add Oklahoma State as another large, public state school from the same region as Texas Tech to maintain the even number and give Texas Tech a regional rival.

I don’t see the PAC-12 looking at Boise State or San Diego State at this time. Maybe they’ll look at them in the future, but not in this round.

For the Big Ten, they don’t need to be in any hurry to add an additional program, but passing up on Kansas basketball might be tough for them despite the fact that the Jayhawks are pretty awful at other sports. Having Kansas and Indiana plus strong programs like Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, etc. would give them possibly the strongest basketball program in college sports. Iowa State makes the most sense out of the remaining Big 12 schools. It falls the most within their geographical footprint, it’s a large state school, it’s academics are solid, and they’re a natural rival for Iowa. I realize that this goes against my “only one school per state” thing, but the options to go along with Kansas are limited. The only other option that might make sense would be Oklahoma State.
 
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VCU Heel

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Heel, I go way back with WVU football. They played on a regular basis Va Tech, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Boston College, now all in the ACC. They also played Penn State. No one made academics an issue. I do enjoy your analysis.
There’s just not going to be a rush by the ACC to add them. Louisville was a rush addition out of panic when Maryland left somewhat unexpectedly. The other moves have been fairly calculated and the ACC has gotten where they want to be with the slow additions of FSU in the 90’s, Miami/VT/BC in the 2000’s, and Syracuse/Pitt in the 2010’s. They’re waiting on that final piece right now, which is Notre Dame. I just don’t see the last domino falling until the Notre Dame question is solved.
 

BaNgMyPrOgRaM

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I think West Virginia is a smart add. Got to get to the magic number and call it a day.
 

squid1622

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She's always been proactive with conference realignment so I have plenty of faith in her improving the league where she can.
IDK about this one. She got boned super hard the last time around. She did really well to bring us and Butler but then when it all when to ish replaced really good teams with ones that honestly, were only ok at best.
 
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