For Funsies: Conference Reallignment/Creation

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Getting into a conference requires that a better conference actually wants VCU. That isn’t happening. VCU will never be in one of the P5 conferences. Now that the AAC is in shambles, the only other good east coast conference is the Big East and they’re not going to invite us anytime soon. The A10 is our only good option for the foreseeable future.
Yeah, I'm not so sure about that.
 

Wolfpack Ram

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You're math is right if VCU takes a full payout. Many schools new to conferences take a reduced payout, such as a half share or a quarter share. My point was that if Fox increased the contract to 51 million, one way to partition the payouts to benefit the current BE schools in the near-term is to give VCU 500k, and then distribute the extra 500k amongst the 11 current members (which would be about 45k extra per school). I think a more realistic example would be if Fox offered 2 or 3 million per year for an extra school, and the new school took half a share until the next media deal.

VCU would still have to show that they can increase revenue for the Big East by $4.5 million annually, and that is where there is a huge problem. They have no way of guaranteeing that like a Gonzaga could. I think your problem is you have over valued VCU basketball significantly in order to make your case.
 

Ululating Daddy

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I think of all the big-name conferences, the Big East is most likely to consider factors beyond just the $$$ in deciding whether to expand. They went down that route once, and it didn't work out so well. So yes, the numbers have to pencil out - that's necessary, but not sufficient. The presidents have to think that it will improve the long-term stability of the conference.
 

Newboy

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VCU would still have to show that they can increase revenue for the Big East by $4.5 million annually, and that is where there is a huge problem. They have no way of guaranteeing that like a Gonzaga could. I think your problem is you have over valued VCU basketball significantly in order to make your case.
I'll bet you a case of Pabst that VCU will get into the Big East before Gonzaga.
 
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VCU would still have to show that they can increase revenue for the Big East by $4.5 million annually, and that is where there is a huge problem. They have no way of guaranteeing that like a Gonzaga could. I think your problem is you have over valued VCU basketball significantly in order to make your case.
I admit I don't know the value of VCU. But what do you think DePaul, St. John's, Providence, Marquette, Butler or Seton Hall are worth? heck, how how about Georgetown or UConn? And how are you assigning them value?

Here's one attempt that would put VCU as the 4th most valuable Big East program (Dayton would be first).
 

VCU Heel

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Yeah, I'm not so sure about that.
Which part are you unsure about?
1. That VCU will never be in a P5 conference?
2. That the Big East isn’t inviting VCU anytime soon?
3. That there are better options for us outside of the P5/Big East?
 
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Which part are you unsure about?
1. That VCU will never be in a P5 conference?
2. That the Big East isn’t inviting VCU anytime soon?
3. That there are better options for us outside of the P5/Big East?
The first two. I think VCU is one of the top 2 candidates for the Big East. Just looking at FS1's viewership, I feel like the Big East will have to add at least 1, if not 5 schools before their next contract. I also think that football, basketball and Olympics will become disentangled at some point in the near future, which could cause a reconfiguration of the power conferences.
 

Wolfpack Ram

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I admit I don't know the value of VCU. But what do you think DePaul, St. John's, Providence, Marquette, Butler or Seton Hall are worth? heck, how how about Georgetown or UConn? And how are you assigning them value?

Here's one attempt that would put VCU as the 4th most valuable Big East program (Dayton would be first).

I'm a bit confused why you want to compare VCU to existing Big East programs. Many of those teams, with the exception of Butler, were charter members. And it's been 9 years since Butler joined. The college basketball/media landscape has changed immensely over the last 10 - 20 years. What conferences valued 10 years ago may not be what they value today. Unlike the Big 12, the Big East is NOT in survival mode and are in complete control of what their conference may look like in the future. They have the luxury of being very selective, going forward, regarding conference expansion.

With that said, I just don't understand why you think VCU would be as high as you wish they were on any list of Big East expansion. Outside of the Final Four run in 2011, VCU has never sniffed the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. VCU has not been consistently ranked in the Top 25 since Shaka Smart was here 6+ years ago. In addition, the Richmond media market is ranked 54th in the country.

Trust me. I love VCU basketball as much as anyone, but I am also a realist. VCU getting an invitation to the Big East is nothing more than a pipe dream at this point.
 

VCU Heel

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The first two. I think VCU is one of the top 2 candidates for the Big East. Just looking at FS1's viewership, I feel like the Big East will have to add at least 1, if not 5 schools before their next contract. I also think that football, basketball and Olympics will become disentangled at some point in the near future, which could cause a reconfiguration of the power conferences.
The power conferences, especially those outside of the Big 12 are becoming even more entrenched and solid. There’s no reason for them to disentangle their Olympic sports where their current conferences allow them to have full, quality schedules. Being together is what actually allows them to keep so many “non-revenue” sports and fund them well. We’re just never going to be in the ACC, Big Ten, or SEC. Ever. And the Big 12 and PAC 12 are definitely not happening either.

The Big East isn’t an impossible destination, but I do not think it’s very likely. I’ll give you the fact that one of VCU’s biggest selling points will be the athletic village and the quality of the ‘non-revenue“ sports, though we do lack a few Big East sports (softball, women’s golf, men’s lacrosse, swimming & diving). We’re better at most of those sports than any other option that the Big East could go after. I‘m just not sure that we (or anyone else) will add enough to their bottom line to make it worth it to add any new programs.
 
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I'm a bit confused why you want to compare VCU to existing Big East programs. Many of those teams, with the exception of Butler, were charter members. And it's been 9 years since Butler joined. The college basketball/media landscape has changed immensely over the last 10 - 20 years. What conferences valued 10 years ago may not be what they value today. Unlike the Big 12, the Big East is NOT in survival mode and are in complete control of what their conference may look like in the future. They have the luxury of being very selective, going forward, regarding conference expansion.

With that said, I just don't understand why you think VCU would be as high as you wish they were on any list of Big East expansion. Outside of the Final Four run in 2011, VCU has never sniffed the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. VCU has not been consistently ranked in the Top 25 since Shaka Smart was here 6+ years ago. In addition, the Richmond media market is ranked 54th in the country.

Trust me. I love VCU basketball as much as anyone, but I am also a realist. VCU getting an invitation to the Big East is nothing more than a pipe dream at this point.
I'm bringing up the current BE members for two reasons. First, Fox and other providers don't care about who was or wasn't a charter member of the conference (and FWIW, Crieghton and Xavier were also added at the same time as Butler), they only care about the value a conference brings to their revenue. Despite what some seem to allude to here, the Big East doesn't have a lifetime contract that increases in value in perpetuity. In 2025, they will have to renegotiate with Fox or solicit bids from ESPN/NBC and the likes. They could see their contract value stall or worse if their league's value isn't growing as anticipated.

Second, and relatedly, you and others keeping saying VCU isn't worth 4.5 million a year. If VCU isn't, are most of the Big East members worth that much?
The power conferences, especially those outside of the Big 12 are becoming even more entrenched and solid. There’s no reason for them to disentangle their Olympic sports where their current conferences allow them to have full, quality schedules. Being together is what actually allows them to keep so many “non-revenue” sports and fund them well. We’re just never going to be in the ACC, Big Ten, or SEC. Ever. And the Big 12 and PAC 12 are definitely not happening either.

The Big East isn’t an impossible destination, but I do not think it’s very likely. I’ll give you the fact that one of VCU’s biggest selling points will be the athletic village and the quality of the ‘non-revenue“ sports, though we do lack a few Big East sports (softball, women’s golf, men’s lacrosse, swimming & diving). We’re better at most of those sports than any other option that the Big East could go after. I‘m just not sure that we (or anyone else) will add enough to their bottom line to make it worth it to add any new programs.
And who is a better candidate than VCU? Gonzaga is too far if basketball and Olympics are married together, perhaps even if the two weren't a package deal. Xavier and Dayton have always had an acrimonious relationship. SLU seems like a good choice, but their success and audience #s always seem to disappoint. WSU may have the best hardwood bonafines, but its outside the Big Easts footprint, nowhere near the academic level of the other Big East schools, and is still recovering from the scandals accompanying their only successful coach.

I mean, if Fox told the big east to expand, who do you think they'd pick?
 
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