My Predicting A-10 tourney seeding/bracket

Natty

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Went through each team's schedule and tried to make my predictions on how they are playing/how they have played and taking into account predicted final conference record and eventual head-to-head tie-breakers, this is what I came up with.

Obviously not predicting a strong finish from VCU. Have us losing to Dayton, at SLU, at Davidson and think we could drop one of at UMass or v Duquesne for a predicted final loss total of 8-9 losses for a predicted finish of 10-8 or 9-9...which make me sick to my stomach. I think best case scenario we lose seven conference games, but that would involve at least one upset win via kenpom, who has has losing v Dayton, at SLU and at Davidson. ABSOLUTE best case scenario is losing just one more game, although that would involve us hitting some gear we haven't really shown much at all this year. Obviously getting off that 8/9 v 1 line would be ideal. Either way, I just reeeeally think VCU's second game (if there is one) in this year's A-10 tourney will be either Dayton, Rhody or Richmond, three teams that have already defeated us by double-digits this season, each having led us by at least 20 points.

BracketPrediction.jpg
 

HBK

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Mar 29, 2010
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And this was our year
Disappointing to say the least. Still a chance to turn this around, but the past week doesn’t inspire confidence.

One bright spot looking ahead to future seasons is this: I think the ceiling for the young guys is higher than the one for most of the older guys. I posted in another thread that the freshmen, excluding Bones, had more playing time than some upper class men yesterday.
 

Natty

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Playing the spoiler is what we have in front of us...
100%. Realistically crazy things can happen too.

2015 we were a good team that started sucking wind late and ended up finishing 5th. We got clobbered by Davidson at the end of the regular season by 28 points, then a few games later in Brooklyn beat them by 20 and we went on to win the entire thing. Last season SLU finished 5th and was a sub-100 kenpom team, then went and won the whole tournament.

I think a decent part of where we'll finish this season will have a lot to do with the A-10's unbalanced schedule and not just how good VCU is. That's 100% how Bona likely finishes ahead of us. Not because they are any good, but because we will have had to play Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island, all of who likely finishes top-3....twice, plus Davidson who is in a similar position to us.

Fun is still possible in Brooklyn, but I think a key to that involves getting of Dayton's line.
 
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RAMBALLFAN

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Disappointing to say the least. Still a chance to turn this around, but the past week doesn’t inspire confidence.

One bright spot looking ahead to future seasons is this: I think the ceiling for the young guys is higher than the one for most of the older guys. I posted in another thread that the freshmen, excluding Bones, had more playing time than some upper class men yesterday.
I took that as Coach slowly turning the page. If we do make it to the post season (NIT invite) I hope that trend continues. Not out of any type of disrespect to the 23 yo+ crowd, but out of respect for all the young (and yes still raw in a number of ways) talent bottled up on our bench. Let the Young Dawgs Run!!!
 
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RAMBALLFAN

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Went through each team's schedule and tried to make my predictions on how they are playing/how they have played and taking into account predicted final conference record and eventual head-to-head tie-breakers, this is what I came up with.

Obviously not predicting a strong finish from VCU. Have us losing to Dayton, at SLU, at Davidson and think we could drop one of at UMass or v Duquesne for a predicted final loss total of 8-9 losses for a predicted finish of 10-8 or 9-9...which make me sick to my stomach. I think best case scenario we lose seven conference games, but that would involve at least one upset win via kenpom, who has has losing v Dayton, at SLU and at Davidson. ABSOLUTE best case scenario is losing just one more game, although that would involve us hitting some gear we haven't really shown much at all this year. Obviously getting off that 8/9 v 1 line would be ideal. Either way, I just reeeeally think VCU's second game (if there is one) in this year's A-10 tourney will be either Dayton, Rhody or Richmond, three teams that have already defeated us by double-digits this season, each having led us by at least 20 points.

View attachment 8100
And if we lose to GW do you think we have a shot at an NIT bid?
 
Jan 1, 2010
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Doesn't matter who we face... LACK of consistency on offense will be our downfall!
We have NOT been able to string more than 2 games together this year of Decent shooting. VERY ERRATIC for reasons I do not know....

Dayton/URI/Richmond have been VERY good with offensive consistency this year. SO if we could get to a 5 seed - St. Louis would be my choice

It's all about "If this" and " I Hope" at this point SMH
 

Natty

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If we shoot well, we win. 2011 showed what a hot streak can accomplish.
Relax, take the shots (get your feet set first). Got nothing to lose, everything to gain.
Have fun.
Worth mentioning that 2011 team, for all their struggles, still posted a 108.2 offensive rating in CAA play and were a 112 overall. This group is at a 101.5 in A-10 play and 105 overall. In short, this team just doesn't have that gear offensively that that Final 4 team had. That team basically had three starters that could consistently shoot 40% from deep including OUR CENTER...which is nuts.

Probably two of the most comparable teams to this group are the 2015 A-10 tourney champ Rams and the 2008 CAA team that lost to William & Mary in the CAA semis before falling to UAB at the Stu in the Siegel Center. Statistically just two very similar teams to this year's group. One of those squads obviously put it all together when it mattered most and the other laid an egg. Both of those teams were considerably less experienced than this year's group as well. Curious which direction we'll head.
 
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May 4, 2012
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Worth mentioning that 2011 team, for all their struggles, still posted a 108.2 offensive rating in CAA play and were a 112 overall. This group is at a 101.5 in A-10 play and 105 overall. In short, this team just doesn't have that gear offensively that that Final 4 team had. That team basically had three starters that could consistently shoot 40% from deep including OUR CENTER...which is nuts.

Probably two of the most comparable teams to this group are the 2015 A-10 tourney champ Rams and the 2008 CAA team that lost to William & Mary in the CAA semis before falling to UAB at the Stu in the Siegel Center. Statistically just two very similar teams to this year's group. One of those squads obviously put it all together when it mattered most and the other laid an egg. Both of those teams were considerably less experienced than this year's group as well. Curious which direction we'll head.
Point taken but i did have the caveat of shooting well. And we have guys who CAN light it up including Silva. FF kids got rather hot for them and while Skeen was a boon in the middle we face conference as opposed to tournament calibre opposition here.
It can happen, just gotta loosen up and say wtf...
 
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GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
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Worth mentioning that 2011 team, for all their struggles, still posted a 108.2 offensive rating in CAA play and were a 112 overall. This group is at a 101.5 in A-10 play and 105 overall. In short, this team just doesn't have that gear offensively that that Final 4 team had. That team basically had three starters that could consistently shoot 40% from deep including OUR CENTER...which is nuts.

Probably two of the most comparable teams to this group are the 2015 A-10 tourney champ Rams and the 2008 CAA team that lost to William & Mary in the CAA semis before falling to UAB at the Stu in the Siegel Center. Statistically just two very similar teams to this year's group. One of those squads obviously put it all together when it mattered most and the other laid an egg. Both of those teams were considerably less experienced than this year's group as well. Curious which direction we'll head.
KP Offensive Efficiency...........

Capel Era:
2003 - 144
2004 - 115
2005 - 118
2006 - 92

Grant Era:
2007 - 18
2008 - 157
2009 - 64

Smart Era:
2010 - 28
2011 - 47
2012 - 96
2013 - 20
2014 - 106
2015 - 58

Wade Era:
2016 - 58
2017 - 72

Rhoades Era:
2018 - 149
2019 - 177
2020 - 124