Season prediction (2019-20) - thru Selection Sunday Mar 2020

Mistachill

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Apr 20, 2009
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That's fair. It's kinda like how the NFL declares a team World Champions even though the game isn't even played on an entire continent. Little bit of bluster and hyperbole in that statement :lol:

The Matrix also grades on seeding. IIRC I think I got like 63/68 within one seed line?
And thanks for not calling me out for using the word "rouse." Meant "ruse." :lol:
 

GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
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Top 46.........that's the neighborhood in which to live.

Here's how things stack up right now (9 Dec 2019) according to Lunardi (with whom I mostly agree - save for a few teams/seeds).

Big East = 7 (GTown/Vill/Hall/Marq/Xav/DePaul/Butler) Bubble: Creighton
Big Ten = 7 (MD/Mich/MSU/OSU/Purd/Ind/Penn St) Bubble: Wisc/Iowa
Big 12 = 7 (Kan/Okla/Okla St/Baylor/WVa/Tex) Bubble: Texas Tech/TCU/Kansas St
ACC = 6 (Ville/Va/UNC/Duke/NC St/FSU) Bubble: Va Tech/Notre Dame
SEC = 6 (Kent/LSU/Aub/Ark/Tenn/Fla) Bubble: Miss St
Pac 12 = 4 (Ariz/Oregon/Wash/Colorado) Bubble: USC/Stan/Ariz St
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

American = 3 (Memphis/Wichita/Houston) Bubble: Cincy/Conn/Temple
A-10 = 2 (Dayton/VCU) Bubble: Richmond/Rhody
WCC = 2 (Gonzaga/St Marys) Bubble: BYU
MWC = 2 (San Diego St/Utah St) Bubble: New Mexico
Total = 46
+ One-Bid Leagues = 22

Grand Total = 68

Will be interesting to see how the first NET release unfolds on Monday 16 Dec 2019.............as you can see, generally just a few non-P6 at-large bids (5) sitting out there to be had. That's fairly typical these days.

We really need to spruce up our at-large resume. After 10 games last season, we had played five away from home and won two of them - Temple and Texas (both Top 50s). After 10 games this season, we will have played just two away from home and won none of them. Huge swing in metrics. Makes next week's roadie w/ Charleston/Wichita that much more critical. We need at least one and preferably both to prop up our rather pedestrian (to date) metrics.
As of 7 Jan 2020, according to Lunardi (with whom I mostly agree - save for a few teams/seeds).

Big Ten = 10 (MD/Mich/MSU/OSU/Purd/Ind/PennSt/Iowa/Wisc/Rutgers) Bubble: Ill
Big East = 6 (GT/Vill/Hall/Marq/Xav/Butler/Creigh) Bubble: St John's/DePaul/GTown
Big 12 = 5 (Kan/Okla/Baylor/WVa/Tex Tech) Bubble: Texas/Okla St
ACC = 5 (Ville/Va/Duke/NC St/FSU) Bubble: VT
SEC = 5 (Kent/Aub/Ark/Fla/LSU) Bubble: Ole Miss/Miss St/Georgia
Pac 12 = 5 (Ariz/Oregon/Wash/Colorado/Stan) Bubble: OSU/Utah/USC/Ariz St
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
American = 3 (Memphis/Wichita/Houston) Bubble: Temple
WCC = 3 (Gonzaga/St Marys/BYU) Bubble: None
A-10 = 2 (Dayton/VCU) Bubble: Richmond
MWC = 2 (San Diego St/Utah St) Bubble: New Mexico
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total = 46 (multi-bid leagues)
+ One-Bid Leagues = 22
Grand Total = 68


Last year, of the Top 46 NET teams (almost entirely from multi-bid leagues), 41 made the tourney. Nearly all of your 1-11 seeds come from this "Top 46 NET" group.

This year, of the current Top 46 NET teams, 43 are projected to make the tourney (42 of them from multi-bid leagues; Liberty is the lone one-bid league team inside the Top 46).

The only multi-bid league teams outside the Top 46 NET right now that are still projected to dance are Purdue (49), UVa (51), Fla (52), Utah St (73). That Top 46 NET ratio (90+% dance invite) is probably pretty accurate (both today and right thru Mar 15 - Selection Sunday).

46 NET is a logical cut-line. Most inside of it dance. Most outside of it don't.

Last year, we had a 34 NET on Selection Sunday and got an 8 seed.
This year, we have a 34 NET today and Lunardi has us as a 10 seed.

Looks about right (for now), given our current profile.
 
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BracketForecast

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May 9, 2011
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As of 7 Jan 2020, according to Lunardi (with whom I mostly agree - save for a few teams/seeds).

Big Ten = 10 (MD/Mich/MSU/OSU/Purd/Ind/PennSt/Iowa/Wisc/Rutgers) Bubble: Ill
Big East = 6 (GT/Vill/Hall/Marq/Xav/Butler/Creigh) Bubble: St John's/DePaul/GTown
Big 12 = 5 (Kan/Okla/Baylor/WVa/Tex Tech) Bubble: Texas/Okla St
ACC = 5 (Ville/Va/Duke/NC St/FSU) Bubble: VT
SEC = 5 (Kent/Aub/Ark/Fla/LSU) Bubble: Ole Miss/Miss St/Georgia
Pac 12 = 5 (Ariz/Oregon/Wash/Colorado/Stan) Bubble: OSU/Utah/USC/Ariz St
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
American = 3 (Memphis/Wichita/Houston) Bubble: Temple
WCC = 3 (Gonzaga/St Marys/BYU) Bubble: None
A-10 = 2 (Dayton/VCU) Bubble: Richmond
MWC = 2 (San Diego St/Utah St) Bubble: New Mexico
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total = 46 (multi-bid leagues)
+ One-Bid Leagues = 22
Grand Total = 68


Last year, of the Top 46 NET teams (almost entirely from multi-bid leagues), 41 made the tourney. Nearly all of your 1-11 seeds come from this "Top 46 NET" group.

This year, of the current Top 46 NET teams, 43 are projected to make the tourney (42 of them from multi-bid leagues; Liberty is the lone one-bid league team inside the Top 46).

The only multi-bid league teams outside the Top 46 NET right now that are still projected to dance are Purdue (49), UVa (51), Fla (52), Utah St (73). That Top 46 NET ratio (90+% dance invite) is probably pretty accurate (both today and right thru Mar 15 - Selection Sunday).

46 NET is a logical cut-line. Most inside of it dance. Most outside of it don't.

Last year, we had a 34 NET on Selection Sunday and got an 8 seed.
This year, we have a 34 NET today and Lunardi has us as a 10 seed.

Looks about right (for now), given our current profile.
While this might technically be correct, you are treating correlation as causation. Additionally, your other posts about us competing for at-large bids with other mid-majors and needing no more than x losses are just plain incorrect. I've done some more research, and we can probably afford 10 losses this season and still make the tournament, so long as we beat Dayton at home and advance to the A10 finals. The reason for this is a) the field is weaker this year than any in recent memory, b) we will probably end up with no road games against Q4 teams, minimizing the chance that we lose any Q4 games as well as having only a couple of road Q3's, and c) we have more resume building opportunities Q1/Q2 this year compared to last year.

While not to be taken as gospel, I invite you to play around with Torvik's teamcast tool. You can dictate which games we win/lose (including the conference tournament), and it spits out our Q1-4 records. At the very bottom, it gives you an approximated seed list.
 

GuardTheArc

Top Member
Dec 4, 2014
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While this might technically be correct, you are treating correlation as causation. Additionally, your other posts about us competing for at-large bids with other mid-majors and needing no more than x losses are just plain incorrect. I've done some more research, and we can probably afford 10 losses this season and still make the tournament, so long as we beat Dayton at home and advance to the A10 finals. The reason for this is a) the field is weaker this year than any in recent memory, b) we will probably end up with no road games against Q4 teams, minimizing the chance that we lose any Q4 games as well as having only a couple of road Q3's, and c) we have more resume building opportunities Q1/Q2 this year compared to last year.

While not to be taken as gospel, I invite you to play around with Torvik's teamcast tool. You can dictate which games we win/lose (including the conference tournament), and it spits out our Q1-4 records. At the very bottom, it gives you an approximated seed list.
If VCU finishes with 10 losses and makes the A-10 final, the Selection Sunday record would have to be 24-10.

22-9 reg season (10-3, 12-6) - Top 4
2-1 A-10 Tourney
—————————-
24-10 Selection Sunday*

*more importantly, 24-9 Selection Saturday night, when the committee pretty much finishes choosing the field.

I have said several times, in different posts, that the 24 win/46 NET mark is the “at-large safety threshold” for us. At or above those metrics, we’re very likely dancing. Below those arbitrary “cut lines” gets very risky. This year will likely be no different.

I am well aware of the various analytical tools available to perform said analyses.

The goal is 24 wins (of any kind) by late Sat night Mar 14.
 
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BracketForecast

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If VCU finishes with 10 losses and makes the A-10 final, the Selection Sunday record would have to be 24-10.

22-9 reg season (10-3, 12-6) - Top 4
2-1 A-10 Tourney
—————————-
24-10 Selection Sunday*

*more importantly, 24-9 Selection Saturday night, when the committee pretty much finishes choosing the field.

I have said several times, in different posts, that the 24 win/46 NET mark is the “at-large safety threshold” for us. At or above those metrics, we’re very likely dancing. Below those arbitrary “cut lines” gets very risky. This year will likely be no different.

I am well aware of the various analytical tools available to perform said analyses.

The goal is 24 wins (of any kind) by late Sat night Mar 14.
the selection committee doesn't care if your NET is top 50. The NET isn't used to evaluate you, it's used to evaluate your opponents.
 

Sethjax

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Jan 22, 2010
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If VCU finishes with 10 losses and makes the A-10 final, the Selection Sunday record would have to be 24-10.

22-9 reg season (10-3, 12-6) - Top 4
2-1 A-10 Tourney
—————————-
24-10 Selection Sunday*

*more importantly, 24-9 Selection Saturday night, when the committee pretty much finishes choosing the field.

I have said several times, in different posts, that the 24 win/46 NET mark is the “at-large safety threshold” for us. At or above those metrics, we’re very likely dancing. Below those arbitrary “cut lines” gets very risky. This year will likely be no different.

I am well aware of the various analytical tools available to perform said analyses.

The goal is 24 wins (of any kind) by late Sat night Mar 14.
Whether we need 24 or 25 wins to feel good about an at-large I feel confident that we can go 12-7 or 13-6 the rest of the way....real confident in that.
 

GuardTheArc

Top Member
Dec 4, 2014
583
916
Here's the realistic NCAA tourney landscape we face..............

36-37 bids = P6 (ACC, B12, B10, SEC, P12, Big East) - Conferences #1-6
9-10 bids = Non-P6 multi-bids (AAC, A-10, MWC, WCC) - Conferences #7-10
22 bids = One-bid leagues - Conferences #11-32
68 bids

Realistically, we are competing w/ the A-10 and three other conferences for about 9-10 bids. This is fairly typical over the past decade or so.

Of the 9-10 bids amongst those four conferences, about 5 of them are "realistically" locked up already (barring some unforeseen circumstance).

#1 NET San Diego St (MWC)
#5 NET Gonzaga (WCC)
#11 NET Wichita St (AAC)
#12 NET Dayton (A-10)
#13 NET Memphis (AAC)


That leaves about 4-5 spots for the following 15 (or so) programs (with current NET):
#32 St Mary's
#35 BYU
#39 Houston
#45 Temple
#48 Utah St
#51 Richmond
#58 New Mexico
#59 St Louis
#64 VCU
#67 UConn
#71 GMU
#79 SMU
#84 Rhody
#89 Cincy
#97 Davidson


Conferences #7-10:
AAC (3) - between Houston/Temple/UConn, it's likely one of those schools makes the AAC a 3-bid league
A-10 (2-3) - at the end of the day, we are probably competing w/ Richmond, St Louis, Davidson, and Rhody for 1-2 spots (Dayton's in).
WCC (2-3) - St. Mary's and BYU will almost assuredly get at least one at-large bid for the WCC (and maybe 2)
MWC (2) - it's hard to see Utah St not making the dance as the #2 school from the MWC (wins already vs Fla/LSU).

Note: All of this above doesn't even take into account potential bid-stealers (like St Louis last yr and Davidson the year before).
UPDATE: 12 Jan 2020

Realistically, we are competing w/ the A-10 and three other conferences for about 9-10 bids. This is fairly typical over the past decade or so.

Of the 9-10 bids amongst those four conferences, about 5 of them are "realistically" locked up already (barring some unforeseen circumstance).

#4 NET San Diego St (MWC)
#7 NET Gonzaga (WCC)
#9 NET Dayton (A-10)
#10 NET Wichita St (AAC)
#22 NET Memphis (AAC)


That leaves about 4-5 spots for the following 14 (or so) programs from those four conferences (with current NET):

#33 BYU
#41 St Mary's
#42 VCU

#46 Duquesne
#47 St Louis
-------------------------------------
#49 Houston
#63 Richmond
#65 Cincy
#66 Rhody
#76 SMU
#77 Utah St
#81 New Mexico
#82 Temple
#88 UConn


Conferences #7-10:
AAC (3) - between Houston/Temple/UConn, it's likely one of those schools makes the AAC a 3-bid league
A-10 (2-3) - at the end of the day, we are probably competing w/ Richmond, St Louis, Duquesne, and Rhody for 1-2 spots (Dayton's in).
WCC (2-3) - St. Mary's and BYU will almost assuredly get at least one at-large bid for the WCC (and probably 2)
MWC (2) - it's still hard to see Utah St not making the dance as the #2 school from the MWC (wins already vs Fla/LSU).

Note: All of this above doesn't even take into account potential bid-stealers (like St Louis last yr and Davidson the year before).
 
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BracketForecast

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UPDATE: 12 Jan 2020

Realistically, we are competing w/ the A-10 and three other conferences for about 9-10 bids. This is fairly typical over the past decade or so.

Of the 9-10 bids amongst those four conferences, about 5 of them are "realistically" locked up already (barring some unforeseen circumstance).

#4 NET San Diego St (MWC)
#7 NET Gonzaga (WCC)
#9 NET Dayton (A-10)
#10 NET Wichita St (AAC)
#22 NET Memphis (AAC)


That leaves about 4-5 spots for the following 14 (or so) programs from those four conferences (with current NET):

#33 BYU
#41 St Mary's
#42 VCU

#46 Duquesne
#47 St Louis
-------------------------------------
#49 Houston
#63 Richmond
#65 Cincy
#66 Rhody
#76 SMU
#77 Utah St
#81 New Mexico
#82 Temple
#88 UConn


Conferences #7-10:
AAC (3) - between Houston/Temple/UConn, it's likely one of those schools makes the AAC a 3-bid league
A-10 (2-3) - at the end of the day, we are probably competing w/ Richmond, St Louis, Duquesne, and Rhody for 1-2 spots (Dayton's in).
WCC (2-3) - St. Mary's and BYU will almost assuredly get at least one at-large bid for the WCC (and probably 2)
MWC (2) - it's still hard to see Utah St not making the dance as the #2 school from the MWC (wins already vs Fla/LSU).

Note: All of this above doesn't even take into account potential bid-stealers (like St Louis last yr and Davidson the year before).
We are not competing for bids with other non-power conferences, so this analysis is all spurious. You might have been able to make a loose case for this argument from 2014-2018, when the selection committee had 5 members from P6 conferences and 5 from mid-majors and extremely poor decisions were made that left some questions about the integrity of the process. Starting last year, however, the balance went back to 6 mids, 4 power conferences. This is why you saw Belmont make the field quite comfortably over NC State, Indiana, TCU, etc.
 
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