Season prediction (2019-20) - thru Selection Sunday Mar 2020

GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
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Some performance-level numbers to consider:
2018: 18-15 overall (2-9 vs KP Top 100) - no post-season
2019: 25-8 overall (6-4 vs KP Top 100) – NCAA
2020: 14-5 overall (2-5 vs KP Top 100) - ???

Total: 57-28 overall (10-18 vs KP Top 100)

It’s clear we can generally beat up the little guys (KP 101-353) in the neighborhood (47-10 record) but when the big boys (KP Top 100) come around, we’re not so tough/smart after all (just 10-18).

Top KP 100 wins (Rhoades era):
Texas – 25 (Smart)
LSU – 36 (probably NCAA in 2020) - Wade
Dayton – 62 (Grant)
Dayton – 62 (Grant)
ODU – 64
Wichita St – 66 (only KP Top 100 double-digit win; 8-4 Shockers lost 6 of next 7 to fall below .500)
Temple – 69 (NCAA in 2019; first four)
N. Tex – 78 (maybe NCAA in 2020)
Hofstra – 93
Bucknell – 97


In 85 games under Mike Rhoades, we have yet to put it all together for a full 40 minutes and truly throttle (convincing double-digit win) a legit KP Top 100 team. Remarkable really. Teams from 2012-2017 (Smart/Wade) frequently hammered (double-digit win) KP Top 100 teams.

All that said, 8 of our remaining 12 regular season games are against KP Top 100 teams (4 home, 4 road):
Dayton - 4
@Rhody - 59
Richmond (twice) – 67
Duquesne – 88
@St Louis – 89
Davidson (twice) - 93


We’ve been feasting on cupcakes the first 3/5 of this season. If it’s going to happen for these seniors (and this team), now is the time to step up and do the heavy lifting (8 of final 12 against contenders + A-10 tourney). The competition going forward is challenging/legit and an NCAA bid is at stake. We’ll now see what these seniors (and this coaching staff) are all about.

24 wins by Selection Sunday (need to somehow get 10 more --- reg season + A-10 tourney).
 
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RESRam

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Apr 21, 2009
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It’ll be interesting to see if Rhoades shortens the offensive leash and starts calling more set plays from the sidelines. One way of curtailing the “hero ball” we’ve seen sometimes. But also a good way to get shots for certain guys who are struggling with their confidence.
Realize he’s been doing that more frequently with Bones at the helm, but there are other reasons to employ. I think he is loathe to do that and would rather the players play instinctively. But a little more structure sometimes helps.
 
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rammad90

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Jan 19, 2010
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It’ll be interesting to see if Rhoades shortens the offensive leash and starts calling more set plays from the sidelines. One way of curtailing the “hero ball” we’ve seen sometimes. But also a good way to get shots for certain guys who are struggling with their confidence.
Realize he’s been doing that more frequently with Bones at the helm, but there are other reasons to employ. I think he is loathe to do that and would rather the players play instinctively. But a little more structure sometimes helps.
I also think the Hero Ball is what hurts this team. They really dont have one guy who is head and shoulders above the rest as such it appears that everyone thinks they have just as good a shot of making it as the next guy. That is except for Crow and Jenkins who generally play their role and dont force stuff.

Fwiw, with Evans a bit off this year, I would like to see them isolate Jenkins a bit more. I'd also like to see Jenkins be more agressive,( similar to Curry without the tunnel vision) on offense.

What I do see is seemingly a lack of Senior dominance and urgency. There is leadership as these guys have done a good job welcoming and encouraging the younger guys. However, it seems the Seniors need to take charge and say to the guys this is our season and this is how we are going to do things to win.
 

GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
655
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Some performance-level numbers to consider:
2018: 18-15 overall (2-9 vs KP Top 100) - no post-season
2019: 25-8 overall (6-4 vs KP Top 100) – NCAA
2020: 14-5 overall (2-5 vs KP Top 100) - ???

Total: 57-28 overall (10-18 vs KP Top 100)

It’s clear we can generally beat up the little guys (KP 101-353) in the neighborhood (47-10 record) but when the big boys (KP Top 100) come around, we’re not so tough/smart after all (just 10-18).

Top KP 100 wins (Rhoades era):
Texas – 25 (Smart)
LSU – 36 (probably NCAA in 2020) - Wade
Dayton – 62 (Grant)
Dayton – 62 (Grant)
ODU – 64
Wichita St – 66 (only KP Top 100 double-digit win; 8-4 Shockers lost 6 of next 7 to fall below .500)
Temple – 69 (NCAA in 2019; first four)
N. Tex – 78 (maybe NCAA in 2020)
Hofstra – 93
Bucknell – 97


In 85 games under Mike Rhoades, we have yet to put it all together for a full 40 minutes and truly throttle (convincing double-digit win) a legit KP Top 100 team. Remarkable really. Teams from 2012-2017 (Smart/Wade) frequently hammered (double-digit win) KP Top 100 teams.

All that said, 8 of our remaining 12 regular season games are against KP Top 100 teams (4 home, 4 road):
Dayton - 4
@Rhody - 59
Richmond (twice) – 67
Duquesne – 88
@St Louis – 89
Davidson (twice) - 93


We’ve been feasting on cupcakes the first 3/5 of this season. If it’s going to happen for these seniors (and this team), now is the time to step up and do the heavy lifting (8 of final 12 against contenders + A-10 tourney). The competition going forward is challenging/legit and an NCAA bid is at stake. We’ll now see what these seniors (and this coaching staff) are all about.

24 wins by Selection Sunday (need to somehow get 10 more --- reg season + A-10 tourney).
VCU under Rhoades:
KP 101-353 = 48-10
KP 1-100 = 11-19
———————————
Overall = 59-29

4 of next 5 vs KP Top 100
6 of final 9 vs KP Top 100
Game 1 A-10 Tourney likely vs KP Top 100
 

BracketForecast

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May 9, 2011
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VCU under Rhoades:
KP 101-353 = 48-10
KP 1-100 = 11-19
———————————
Overall = 59-29

4 of next 5 vs KP Top 100
6 of final 9 vs KP Top 100
Game 1 A-10 Tourney likely vs KP Top 100
In the social sciences, we are always able to spot the amateur know it all when we ask them to tell us why ice cream sales are correlated with violence. You're the guy that says people become homicidal lunatics because they've had too much sugar.
 

VCU Finance 2008

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Apr 19, 2009
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VCU under Rhoades:
KP 101-353 = 48-10
KP 1-100 = 11-19
———————————
Overall = 59-29

4 of next 5 vs KP Top 100
6 of final 9 vs KP Top 100
Game 1 A-10 Tourney likely vs KP Top 100
Anyone who doesn't think this guy is a troll take note of how often he shows up within hours after a loss vs how often he normally posts. It is getting a bit predictible.
 

PRock

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Feb 9, 2010
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In the social sciences, we are always able to spot the amateur know it all when we ask them to tell us why ice cream sales are correlated with violence. You're the guy that says people become homicidal lunatics because they've had too much sugar.
Funny, in the physical sciences, they are always able to spot the social scientist the same way....

just a joke—also a social science phd, but couldn’t resist.
 

vcurams

Insider
Apr 26, 2009
65
30
Year 1 (2-9) is completely irrelevant.

All 6 of our loses this year would be considered quad 1 loses.

Finish 8-1 ... Next 5 are key (need to go 4-1).

14-4 - 2nd place regular season

24-7 - regular season
A10 finals - I’ll take our chances

#8 seed
 
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GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
655
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PERFORMANCE
OOC = 10-3 (losses to LSU, Purdue, Wichita St)
A-10 Reg Season = 13-5 (losses to Dayton, UR, Rhody, Davidson, St Louis)
A-10 Tourney = 1-1 (loss in semis)
-----------------------------
Selection Sunday Record = 24-9; KP = 44 Overall (Offense = 91; Defense = 29); NET = 42; NCAA Tourney = 10 seed (at-large)


MINUTES
Starters = 120

Evans - 27
Jenkins - 26
Vann - 25
Santos-Silva - 22
Williams - 20

Rotation = 65
Simms - 17
Douglas - 16
Crowfield - 13
Hyland - 10
Curry - 9

Other = 15
Ward - 7
McAllister - 5
Clark - 3

Total = 200
Current Record: 16-6 (prediction 24-9)
Current KP: 45 (prediction 44)
Current KP offense: 91 (prediction 91)
Current KP defense: 29 (prediction 29)
Current NET: 37 (prediction 42)
 

GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
655
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As of Sun 9 Feb.....

We have a relatively flimsy at-large profile for a Top 50 NET team -- just 3 Q1/Q2 wins (3-6). Only Utah St (3-5) and No. Iowa (3-1) have as few. And those 3 wins are #27 LSU at home by 2 (trailed with under 30 seconds remaining), #55 Richmond at home (without their top scorer), and #127 Charleston away (where we trailed by 8 at the half). Our 14-0 Q3/Q4 record is obviously buoying us right now.

Starting next Sat 2/15, the rubber meets the road...........a 6-day, 3-game stretch of Q1 games -- @ #55 UR, home vs #5 Dayton, @ #75 St Louis. And we still have #87 Duquesne at home and #98 Davidson away to close the reg season along with a probable first/second round A-10 tourney game against another Top 100 NET on a neutral floor. A lot of heavy lifting is still in front of us.

Last yr, our metrics (and resume/profile) got a rocket boost from road/neutral Top 100 NET wins at Dayton/Texas and Temple (neutral).

This year, every time we hit the road against a Top 100 NET team, we get worked (@ Dayton, @ Wichita, @ Rhody, neutral Tenn, neutral Purdue). Our best win away from Siegel so far is #127 Charleston.

Mike needs to start tightening up his rotation a bit and put his best (most efficient/productive/energetic 8-9 guys) on the floor for the full 200 minutes. Players need touches/minutes to get in to the flow. Quite frankly, certain guys in the current rotation look a little timid, out of synch, a bit out of shape, a step slow/behind, etc.

Last yr, we were a NET 34 team on Selection Sunday and cruised in as an 8 seed due to our #2 NCSOS and a 16-2 first place reg season. Well, neither of those are happening this season and, as a result, we find ourselves with a NET 32 right now but still sitting squarely on the cut line (a very unusual place to be for a team with a Top 35 NET).

More than likely, the A-10 will be a 2-3 bid league (leaning towards 3). Dayton and Rhody will likely be two of them.

For us:

24 wins at noon on Selection Sunday = dancing
23 wins at noon on Selection Sunday = a little nervous/bubbly
22 wins at noon on Selection Sunday = probably NIT

The seniors (collectively) still have a huge challenge in front of them and a lot to prove over the next five weeks (up until Mar 15).
 
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