The 2020-21 Men's Basketball Tournament

theyaintwantit

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Dec 22, 2009
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Think I’d prefer URI over Dayton. Flyers seem to be rolling and URI is without Shepherd. But they seem to be our Achilles heel.
Dayton just got hammered at St Joes seven days ago. They are a fine team and have wins over SLU and St Bona in 2 of their last 3 games, but by no means are they rolling.
 
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mrgeode

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Mar 22, 2013
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53-49 ... the epitome of a Pillow Fight game. You know the score wasn't that low because of fantastic defense.
Fordham missed at least two dunks. That's always frustrating, but it has to really sting in a four point loss.
 

smiley4284

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Jul 7, 2011
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Dayton just got hammered at St Joes seven days ago. They are a fine team and have wins over SLU and St Bona in 2 of their last 3 games, but by no means they are rolling.
St Joes is a better team with Daly back in the rotation. Wouldn’t be surprised if they upset someone
 

RamDanFan

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Jan 19, 2015
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I have to agree with Mooney. Something should have came out in advance to prevent this from happening. Something like, change when designated seeds play their games. I’m kinda on the fence about this from a personal standpoint. I like the famialirity of playing at home but not what it could do to our at large chances losing a home game in the quarterfinals.

After seeing that graph someone put up about how the A 10 was next to last in conferences with regards to percentage of scheduled games played, it sure does seem plausible this was mishandled as well.
 
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WillWeaverRVA

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Dec 30, 2011
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I have to agree with Mooney. Something should have came out in advance to prevent this from happening. Something like, change when designated seeds play their games. I’m kinda on the fence about this from a personal standpoint. I like the famialirity of playing at home but not what it could do to our at large chances losing a home game in the quarterfinals.

After seeing that graph someone put up about how the A 10 was next to last in conferences with regards to percentage of scheduled games played, it sure does seem plausible this was mishandled as well.
Yeah, that was me. The A-10 has not handled this season well at all.
 

HBK

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Mar 29, 2010
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Think I’d prefer URI over Dayton. Flyers seem to be rolling and URI is without Shepherd. But they seem to be our Achilles heel.
You mean the Dayton team that is 3-4 in their last 7 games and a winner of ONE in a row? Just a little humor. Both Dayton and a Rhody scare me. I’d like to get a bye to the Finals, but that never seems to happen.
 
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GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
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When the dust settles late Sat night 13 Mar and the field is "essentially in place," 90-95% (or approx 42-44) of the Top 46 NET will likely be in the dance. Those that are "most in jeopardy" for possible exclusion will be the lower range NET 36-46 squads with the "fringe" resumes (particularly the non-P6 programs like VCU, Drake, Colo St, Utah St, Boise St, St Bonny, St Louis, etc - assuming they are in that range at that time). NET 1-35 are essentially locks (unless an anomaly like Colgate exists).

The remaining 24-26 teams will be 1) from one-bid conferences and 2) outlier NET teams w/ national pull (like Mich St, Duke, Syracuse, etc).

If you're VCU, Bonny, or St Louis, you desperately want to end up in that Top 46 NET grouping (and preferably Top 35-ish) by Sat night 13 Mar.

2019 - 41 of Top 46 NET (89%) made the dance (5 exceptions)
1) #33 Clemson (19-13, 9-9; lost in first round of ACC tourney)
2) #35 NC State (22-11, 9-9; lost in second round of ACC tourney; 350 OOC SOS)
3) #38 Texas (16-16 record on Selection Sunday)
4) #41 Furman (not enough quality wins playing in Southern Conf; lost in conf tourney semis; one bid conf)
5) #46 Memphis (21-13 on Selection Sunday; finished 5th in conf reg season; 4 AAC teams chosen ahead of them - UCF, Cincy, Houston, Temple)


Note: The only non-P6 team to make the dance (via at-large) in 2019 with a NET outside the Top 46 was Temple (#56), a controversial choice over #46 Memphis (from the same conference) and a First Four selection.

2020 - no NCAA tourney

2021 - 44 of Top 46 NET (96%) projected to dance right now (2 exceptions)

1) #9 Colgate - statistical anomaly
2) #42 St Louis - second team out


Note: Right now, from the traditional multi-bid conferences, no non-P6 team outside the Top 46 is projected to dance as an at-large and only one non-P6 team outside the Top 46 NET is projected to dance at all (Wichita St - as a #12 and as the AAC auto-bid).


Summary: If you're VCU, Bonny, or St Louis (or any non-P6 team for that matter), you desperately want to end up in that Top 46 NET grouping (and preferably Top 35-ish to feel somewhat comfy) by Sat night 13 Mar (and take your chances from there).

By and large, from an at-large perspective, the Top 46 NET is the "approx cut line" for the multi-bid conferences. A few "above the line" will miss the dance and a few "below the line" will get in but, for the most part, the Top 46 NET are generally in decent shape (barring some strange/outlier circumstance or resume anomaly).
 
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