The Offense

GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
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In a word...........abysmal.

Last yr = KenPom 177 (lowest ever for an at-large) - 104.3 points per 100 possessions (adjusted for competition)
This yr = KenPom 112 - 103.6 points per 100 possessions (adjusted for competition)

This season:
Against Below 200 KenPom opponents = 113.3 points per 100 possessions (equivalent of 8th); Record 5-0
Against Top 200 KenPom opponents = 94.9 points per 100 possessions (equivalent of 284th); Record 7-4

Record against Below 100 NET = 11-0
Record against Top 100 NET = 1-4

Season is officially half over (16 out of a guaranteed 32 games)................

13 of remaining 15 reg season opponents are Top 200 KP.
7 (and possibly 9) of remaining 15 reg season opponents are Top 100 NET.
8 of remaining 15 reg season opponents are away games.

All five seniors shooting under 40% from the field.
 

RamsFan1974

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Feb 17, 2017
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Anyone have an update on Crow? One guy isnt going to right the ship but I can see him nailing a timely 3 to keep a rally going.
 

RAMBALLFAN

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Aug 26, 2016
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So the question is, will Rhoades serk an answer or keep hoping for the best ?
That’s a question for the $1.6 million dollar man... . All we can do is cross our fingers and hope for the best.
 
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PhantomRam

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Apr 30, 2009
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So the question is, will Rhoades serk an answer or keep hoping for the best ?
I am afraid we are going to have to ride the horse we have. Not sure there is a magic button to push to all of a sudden make our shooting improve.
We kinda got what we got. But I think we should start by playing a little more controlled on both ends of the court.
 
May 4, 2012
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I am afraid we are going to have to ride the horse we have. Not sure there is a magic button to push to all of a sudden make our shooting improve.
We kinda got what we got. But I think we should start by playing a little more controlled on both ends of the court.
Totally agree on the control.
Id like to see more emphasis on inside out. Specifically less out.
We dont shoot well from distance so lets look for floaters, backdoor cuts and slashing. That will require some half court plays. And a power forward we dont have.
Wont fix the problems but maybe we get more competetive.
 

VCU Heel

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Aug 7, 2012
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Totally agree on the control.
Id like to see more emphasis on inside out. Specifically less out.
We dont shoot well from distance so lets look for floaters, backdoor cuts and slashing. That will require some half court plays. And a power forward we dont have.
Wont fix the problems but maybe we get more competetive.
We shoot better than the national average from distance.
 
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Gopher+RamFan

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Dec 9, 2010
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Interesting to see what the "eye test" showed back in late November. Playing long, P5 teams made our offense look totally inept outside of the Seigel Center. There were a few folks posting about it then.

The good news is that we have the talent (as shown last year), and things can still turnaround.... I remember the Final Four year things were rough in February. Team flipped a switch, looking like we'll have to find that switch again. I'm not that high this year as I was during February 2011, but anything can happen.
 

GuardTheArc

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Dec 4, 2014
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Marcus Evans:
First six games (6-0) = 29-57 (51%), 15-29 from three (51%), 15.2 ppg, mostly cupcakes (6 at home, 0 road/neutral); team averages 77 ppg.
Last ten games (6-4) = 19-68 (28%), 10-36 from three (28%), 8.6 ppg, real competition (5 at home, 5 road/neutral); team averages 67 ppg.

We play at a 71 possession per game tempo.

Issac Vann:
Never mind - too frightening

These guys are 23-24 yr old seniors (5th yr in college). This is who they are.......there likely is no next level/gear. Their college careers end in 9-11 weeks.

Going to have to figure out how to "grind" out ~12 more wins before Selection Sunday. I love Evans (heart, competitiveness, personality, drive, determination, leadership, hustle, team focus, etc) but it's going to be a serious chore dragging this (offensively limited/challenged) crew across the NCAA (tourney selection) finish line on 15 Mar. The defense can only do so much (see UVA).
 
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Natty

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Some semi-related stats:

VCU box +/- ranking (minutes ranking)

1. Tre Clark 9.4 (13th)
2. Marcus Santos-Silva 8.5 (2nd)
3. De'Riante Jenkins 7.7 (1st)
4. Corey Douglas 7.0 (10th)
5. Hasan Ward 6.2 (11th)
6. Bones Hyland 4.5 (7th)
7. Mike'L Simms 3.3 (5th)
8. Marcus Evans 3.2 (3rd)

9. Vince Williams 3.7 (9th)
10. Malik Crowfield 2.1 (8th)
11. Issac Vann 1.0 (4th)
12. Jarren McAllister 0.5 (12th)
13. KeShawn Curry 0 (6th)
14. Arnold Henderson (14th)

These are via sports-reference.com.

The long and short of that is some big minutes guys have struggled. Issac's box +/- is down from +4.8 last year. Marcus Evans is down from +7.5. Throw in Kel and KeShawn getting big minutes with minimal production and we are what we are: a solid team that is now 1-4 against the top-100 and sniffing 1-5 if we don't upset Dayton on the road (which is what is predicted).

I don't see Coach Rhoades making any big minutes adjustments, so our success is ultimately going to depend on what mean regression Evans and Vann make. If they don't snap back to their peek numbers, we are NIT bound. If they do, we can dance.

Also, let's be real: Corey is getting the shaft.

Clearly Rhoades is into playing small ball, so that's hurting Corey majorly and Rhoades likes Douglas coming in for MSS, but I'm of the opinion Corey has earned more PT. Dude has yet to play over 16 minutes in a game (THAT'S RIDICULOUS) this season despite posting very strong efficiency numbers. It's clearly a style preference for Rhoades, but I think at a cost to the team and is incredibly unfair to Corey. He has the fourth highest offensive rating, fourth best box +/-, fifth best PER and checks in at 10th in minutes. Come on now....reward that man.
 

Ramdog

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Feb 10, 2009
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I'm just as happy with Corey stepping out to shot a three as I am Vann.

I'm sure Mike is searching for someone to get hot from the outside to give more opportunities for MSS to operate around the basket. It is getting crowed in the paint with our lack of shooting...makes it hard to drive as well. Playing Corey doesnt help that. We need to make threes...it doesn't work (against good teams) if we don't.
 
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Natty

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Was just curious, so here are our numbers against top-100s (1-4)

2p%: 17-35, 16-26, 15-42, 16-34, 15-39 = 79-176 (44.8%)

3p%: 9-28, 3-17, 7-15, 4-19, 6-28 = 29-107 (27.1%)

So essentially when playing top-100s our 2-point offense looks like the current 315th-ranked two-point offense in the country and our three-point offense like the 345th-ranked three-point offense in the country....that is rough. What's worse (literally) is our best numbers in that sample was from our first game against a top-100, which was the home win against LSU in which we scored 84 points. So just haven't really done anything good offensively since (exactly two months ago) against a legit team.

The good news is in the past Evans and Vann have posted better numbers, so there is some historic data that suggests we are better than this, but at the same time this just reminds me so much of two seasons ago where we just had defensive issues you just could tell weren't going to get fixed with that particular roster -- things got MUCH better the next season with different players, but that does us no good this year.
 
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