The Official Beat the Temple Owls in Philly Thread

Ramcounter

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Thank you. The more I read of it, the less I think I like it, particularly early in the season. I’m more of a results based guy. Predictions mean little unless one is gambling, and I don’t gamble.

That’s not to suggest that KenPom doesn’t have its place, but it certainly means little as some sort of predictor on how we’ll do because it doesn’t appear to take into account that players and teams can improve.

I also think margin of victory or loss is overrated. A loss is a loss whether by 3 or by 33. It isn’t necessarily predictive of what happens next. An example from today is that UVA struggled and only beat a horrible FSU by 5 at home. Looks like KenPom would penalize them for that margin of victory. Do you think Tony Bennett cares that they won by only five points? I’m pretty sure he doesn’t. He cares more about whether they won and how they executed his game plan rather than by how much they won.

Also, shouldn’t a factor be whether a coach emptied his bench and played all freshmen because his team was up big, and the margin of victory got smaller as the subs played?

That being said, I do think this make sense. In KenPom’s words, “It likes a team that loses a lot of close games against strong opposition more than one that wins a lot of close games against weak opposition.” So, strength of schedule does matter, but as 2012 said, it may look at metrics from the previous season, which makes little sense, especially given the massive turnover in college basketball due to the transfer portal.

I guess in the end I come back to what I’ve heard the head of the NCAA Selection Committee say year after year, “Who’d you play, where’d you play, and how’d you do?” It really is that simple.
I do think there is value in margin of victory/ defeat. If you lose a game by a few points it really shows that a few coin flip decisions went against you. Ie a front end of the 1 and 1 missed, maybe a 50/50 call went against you, or simply a missed open shot to take the lead with less than a minute left turned a 3 point win into a 3 point loss.
 

HBK

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2 loses each to Dayton, SLU and Davidson and a spilt with Richmond gets you to 7 loses. Yes, SLU looks like class of the league so far. With Dayton JJ will foul out in the first half, their front court is simply a ton better. IF we can't guard the 3 (and the lane) any better than we did today, Davidson will tear us up. Have not seen UMASS, so not sure if they are paper tiger. GW looks better and UR is not as horrible as I thought they would be. Also dropping the usual 1-2 road games that you don't expect will always happen. Hopefully we can at least get splits with Dayton, SLU and Davidson and sweep UR. 14-4 should win the conference this year, so we need to steal those 4.
You already have us getting swept by teams? Wow! I have seen UMass. They aren't some sort of super team. Their best win is Colorado, which is nice, but the Buffaloes, like most teams are up and down. They are a middle to bottom Pac 12 team, most likely.

Davidson doesn't scare me. They were better last season and we should have swept them then, but we gagged away the home game.

GW hasn't done anything so far. They beat up South Carolina, who was picked last in the SEC. UR is now 3-5 after losing at Bill & Mary tonight. They've lost 5 of their last 6 (the only win was against Temple on a neutral floor...go figure). They'll improve, but they aren't anything to write home about at this stage.

SLU and Dayton, when healthy, are the only teams that I think are better than we are from what I've seen. That said, if we don't play well, then we can lose to anyone in conference on a given night. It's all how you play on that given day or night. We need much more consistency. If we can find it, then we'll be fine in conference play. First things first, we need to finish strong in the OOC .
 

HBK

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I do think there is value in margin of victory/ defeat. If you lose a game by a few points it really shows that a few coin flip decisions went against you. Ie a front end of the 1 and 1 missed, maybe a 50/50 call went against you, or simply a missed open shot to take the lead with less than a minute left turned a 3 point win into a 3 point loss.
Good point. I hadn't thought of it that way.

At some point though, shouldn't it be capped. If I read KenPom correctly, then I don't think he caps it. Is a 30-point win really that much more dominate than a 20-point win? Doesn't a lot depend on how a coach played the final few minutes of a blowout? Did he play walk-ons while the other team kept his starters in? That kind of thing.
 

Ramcounter

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Good point. I hadn't thought of it that way.

At some point though, shouldn't it be capped. If I read KenPom correctly, then I don't think he caps it. Is a 30-point win really that much more dominate than a 20-point win? Doesn't a lot depend on how a coach played the final few minutes of a blowout? Did he play walk-ons while the other team kept his starters in? That kind of thing.
Definitely agree that after a certain point of a blow out it really comes down to back ups and walk ons. At that point, margin of victory is pretty worthless other than to say it was a blow out.
 
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Was Shriver as heavy as he is now at Hartford? I certainly don’t remember him as athletic in his highlight clips, but I didn’t think he would be as wide as he is. I thought he would be a 3 that would be challenged to guard anyone. Instead he’s an undersized 4 that can’t guard anyone.
 
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You guys calling for Fats to play, like he could help us right now, are crazy. I’m sure he has some talent, but in the minutes that he’s played he has looked timid and just to be taking up space.

Like the other freshmen, Fats needs to get some pt to help with his confidence and development. In the olden days, you could expect VCU teams to have some blowout games where the younger players could play a lot. Unfortunately, in recent years, these type of games seem to be few and far between.
 

CasualObserver

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With regard to a coaching change, some of you need to check yourself at the door. Although I guess, with 48% of Americans living in a land of make believe full of wizards and fairies where if you sprinkle a little fairy dust on it, whatever you make up automatically becomes the all knowing truth, some of you believe if you say it enough times it will actually occur.

But say it with me, say it loud, say it proud, say it clear and say it like you mean it. Under no circumstances is our program at the level where we can afford to get rid of a 20+ win coach and know we can do better with someone else. The chances of it occurring are zip, zilch, nada, nope, never, not gonna happen, ain't gonna see it. Even P5 programs are wary of making a coaching change for fear of what might happen with a new coach........and we are not even at the level of a P5 program.

Maybe we ought to get a few Louisville fans to come speak with you guys.....maybe some Shaka era Texas fans need to invite you to a seminar on how getting rid of a 20+ win coach in favor of the latest flavor of the month turned out for them. Perhaps we can have some SLU fan come and chat with you guys about how the last decade has gone for them after a coaching change. We could get GMU fans to come talk about how their program has faired but they likely will encourage you to get rid of a 20+ in coach.

We are NOT a blue blood program where we can just hire anyone we choose who has a proven track record of winning at the highest level. So you guys need to STFU, leave the land of make believe and bring yourself back to reality. It doesn't matter how many times you say it, it ain't happening. So you might as well drop it.

I agree with all of this, and yet, also recognize that unless the conference tournament goes the Rams’ way, it’s four years out of six with no dancing, and zero tournament wins….and that’s problematic.
 
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Fermin, Billups, Jackson and Banks and Kern, should have been used better by the coaching staff. Rhodes need better vision with matchups and mismatches. Battle and Dunn bumped or guards and looked down on them all day. The swagger wasn’t there. You have to look down you bench and see who wants it. Loyalty and practice should not always dictate who plays in a game. Coach need to change his bad habits!!! We all have them. If you always do what you have always done, you will always get what you have always gotten.
 

BradRamFan

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Billups not getting any burn is head scratching. Weird for a top 100 local kid who chose VCU over high major programs is not getting 5-10 minutes a night to see what he can do. Especially if we're gonna lose to 4-4 Temple by 10.
Why? Why should we put a kid in if he isn't ready....regardless of whether he is local or not. And 4 stars means little. How many minutes if Wheeler getting at Louisville? Tons of 4 and even 5 star freshman not getting burn on the court this year.
The few times Fats has gotten on the court he has been more of a liability and an asset. He needs more time to adjust to the game and he appears very tentative out there. I'm not saying he won't end up being one of our top players by the time he graduates but he is not ready.
 

RamStrut

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The press wasn't the problem today. Sure they beat it a few times during the game, but it also forced some turnovers. The problem was in half-court defense. It was AWFUL today.
I would argue the press greatly contributed to the awful half-court defense.
 

BradRamFan

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Fermin, Billups, Jackson and Banks and Kern, should have been used better by the coaching staff. Rhodes need better vision with matchups and mismatches. Battle and Dunn bumped or guards and looked down on them all day. The swagger wasn’t there. You have to look down you bench and see who wants it. Loyalty and practice should not always dictate who plays in a game. Coach need to change his bad habits!!! We all have them. If you always do what you have always done, you will always get what you have always gotten.
What game were you watching where you want to bench a guy who gave us 16 points and 8 rebounds in order to play Fermin? What game were you watching where you want to bench our starting pg and cg, both getting 14-15 points in the game and give those minutes to Zeb and Banks and switch Nunn and Ace down to 9-10 minutes for the game? Was Watkins getting too many points this game such that you wanted to replace him with Kern?
Was the 10 point loss to close a game for you? Did you want us to lose by 20 or 30?
 

Ramlove81

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If I remember correctly he also factors some of last season's games in to the mix until enough games are played in this season
Which is another reason I think kenpom starts to be more relevant after 10-12 games.
 
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