This doesn't make sense

Mar 26, 2011
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Well, certainly any win at this point would be good for everyone’s morale. Nothing explains missed FTs, having the other team go on long scoring runs, etc. At least the main goal now is to try and win the A10 tourney. You never know!
 

RAMBALLFAN

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Aug 26, 2016
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Some statistical differences to help make sense of things...

A-10 offensive efficiency (the higher the number, the better):
Last year: 107
This year: 100.3

A-10 defensive efficiency (the lower the better)
Last year: 87.2
This Year: 97.1

A-10 margin
Last year: +19.8
This year: +3.2

Note: Basically those number reflect how many points a team would score (offense) or give up (defense) on 100 possessions.

That is an extreme drop for a team that returned almost every key piece and massively upgraded their biggest weakness: backup PG. The difference really has been the experienced players just taking considerable steps back for the most part.

Experienced player A-10 offensive ratings: Last Year/This Year (note: the higher the better)
Evans: 113.4/90.3 (-23.1)
Vann: 112.5/96.7 (-15.8)
Jenkins: 111.3/107.6 (-3.7)
MSS: 119.6/104.6 (-15)
Simms: 88.1/91.7 (+3.6)
Williams: 94.4/87 (-7.4)

That's basically your core returned minutes. The only improvement in offensive efficiency has been Simms, but that's only taken his offensive efficiency (and I'm not trying to hate here, just explaining the numbers) from "pretty bad" to "meh". We lost Sean, but his offensive rating was just 95.3, so efficiency wise he was basically one of the worst in last year's core group.

The "other guy" effect: A-10 opposing team defensive improvement from Last Year to This Year
Rhody: 102.9/90.8 (+12.1)
Richmond: 109.2/91.3 (+17.9)
Dayton: 96.3/94.4 (+1.9)
Mason: 101/104.6 (-3.6)

Three of those teams have improved, two of which having done so quite massively, going from bad defensively to essentially elite. Dayton had made a little step forward on D but matches that with the best offense we've seen in the A-10 in a while. Mason took a step back from bad to worse yet somehow managed to hold us to 67 points at home, which to me points to something beyond just "other teams got better" (because Mason is worse than last season).

My thoughts: Coaches and players say it's about "want to", but I'm not sure I really believe that. I don't think our guys want to win any less than they did last year. I'm pretty sure they really wanted to win badly last night to avoid our worst losing streak in 20 years, but couldn't get it done and were essentially embarrassed in the process. I think this is basically where your coaches have to really step in and show their skill level, take the pieces we have, use the numbers, consider the "want to" if you believe in that dark arts type of stuff, then put your chess pieces in the best position to win games.

I know the roster is something that has to be frustrating the heck out of the coaches right now because the group that went 16-2 in the A-10 last season has looked like a 2-16 team a lot this year, so they likely feel like their hands are tied and are just praying the experienced guys turn it around. I've seen more and more experimenting with the lineup, so I know they are working to figure out how to crack the code (they played 11 guys dub-digit minutes last night), so clearly it doesn't appear the staff has given up. I just hope they hit on something soon because this has been a brutal stretch the likes of which I can't remember at VCU.
Thank you for the analysis. Great job focusing on the situation and using data, and not conjecture or hyperbole to draw a well formulated, and grounded conclusion. The data doesn’t make me feel any better about the results this team is experiencing, but at least in part it validates why.
 

PRock

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Feb 9, 2010
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Can we do away with the “freshman do freshman things” commentary......anyone see a senior turn a 14pt deficit into a 19 point one in two easy steps (could have been 21)Boneheads make boneheaded plays regardless of class, a lot of freshman come in and play heady too.
 

Major Ram 2.0

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It seems every road game refs hit MSS with a quick 2 fouls. Against slu when he went out and Ward came in he got pushed around by grown men Ward did well overall and 30-40 lbs he’s going to a handful. Last night though he got bullied a little
With MSS on bench they went on their run
Plus Perkins shot lights out
 
Aug 7, 2012
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So Heel I assume you are a UNC fan. Is Roy Williams a poor coach? Last place in ACC. With whatever talent he wants.
First, Roy Williams has earned some leeway with his success over the last 30 years. Mike Rhoades has not done the same.

Second, UNC has had more injuries this year than any college basketball team I’ve ever watch. The team was already going to struggle before this happened.

Third, Williams has flat out said during press conferences that he’s done a poor job coaching this year. I‘m not sure I need to add anything to what he’s said.
 
Aug 7, 2012
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It seems every road game refs hit MSS with a quick 2 fouls. Against slu when he went out and Ward came in he got pushed around by grown men Ward did well overall and 30-40 lbs he’s going to a handful. Last night though he got bullied a little
With MSS on bench they went on their run
Plus Perkins shot lights out
Both of those quick fouls were fouls. We can’t blame the refs. MSS has got to play smarter, but the coaches shouldn’t be putting him in the position to pick up that second foul 30 feet from the basket. We don’t have the personnel to play the aggressive defense that we’re using, other teams know it, and they’re attacking. It causes us to pick up dumb fouls, leaves us constantly out of position, and gives opposing teams tons of easy baskets. It’s idiotic to continue pressuring the ball 30+ feet from the basket with guards that can’t keep the ball in front of them.
 

Natty

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It seems every road game refs hit MSS with a quick 2 fouls. Against slu when he went out and Ward came in he got pushed around by grown men Ward did well overall and 30-40 lbs he’s going to a handful. Last night though he got bullied a little
With MSS on bench they went on their run
Plus Perkins shot lights out
That's why I think when Has comes in, Corey needs to as well....ESPECIALLY AGAINST SAINT LOUIS.

Sure, they shot 44% from three...but they only took nine threes. SLU ranks 325th in the nation in % of points coming off threes, only 28% of their attempts coming from distance.

I believe someone said Corey had a foot issue though, so maybe that's what was going on there and us just playing the hand we were dealt via injuries (again).
 
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Apr 19, 2009
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It seems every road game refs hit MSS with a quick 2 fouls. Against slu when he went out and Ward came in he got pushed around by grown men Ward did well overall and 30-40 lbs he’s going to a handful. Last night though he got bullied a little
With MSS on bench they went on their run
Plus Perkins shot lights out
The refs didn't "hit" him with questionable fouls. His two early fouls in this game and last were good calls and terrible decisions by him. Last night one was over the back where he had no real chance to get it and one was near mid court. He has to play smarter.
 
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VCU85

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The refs didn't "hit" him with questionable fouls. His two early fouls in this game and last were good calls and terrible decisions by him. Last night one was over the back where he had no real chance to get it and one was near mid court. He has to play smarter.
Thought he'd gotten over that, but with the state of play I think it's made him feel like he has to make something happen.
 
Apr 19, 2009
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That's why I think when Has comes in, Corey needs to as well....ESPECIALLY AGAINST SAINT LOUIS.

Sure, they shot 44% from three...but they only took nine threes. SLU ranks 325th in the nation in % of points coming off threes, only 28% of their attempts coming from distance.

I believe someone said Corey had a foot issue though, so maybe that's what was going on there and us just playing the hand we were dealt via injuries (again).
Has there been any thing official about an injury? I have seen nothing. I think someone on here just said they heard from someone, who heard from someone, who thought he might be injured. I"m calling BS on that.
 
Apr 19, 2009
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Thought he'd gotten over that, but with the state of play I think it's made him feel like he has to make something happen.
He was clearly trying to make something happen and committed stupid fouls. He has to realize it is way more important for him to stay in the game than to possibly get a steal from a guard 30 feet from the basket.
 
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Aug 7, 2012
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The refs didn't "hit" him with questionable fouls. His two early fouls in this game and last were good calls and terrible decisions by him. Last night one was over the back where he had no real chance to get it and one was near mid court. He has to play smarter.
It’s also on the coaches not to have him in those near midcourt defensive situations.
 

rammad90

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Jan 19, 2010
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I think Evans has been not healthy to some extent all season and that’s been the biggest factor.

I heard from a long time fan that there has been some rift between the upperclassmen and young guys, which makes sense when reading into Williams’ tweet a week or so ago about the “crew” not being right. That being said, the kids on any team don’t have to necessarily like each other to be successful. It certainly helps though.
G I dont like to speculate. However, you can see it when they play. Or at least I thought I noticed something. Bones and Williams don't pass to Jenkins unless they have to pass to him.

One of the challenges to having a team full of B+ players is the only thing separating the guys most time is just experience and discipline. The discipline and adherence to the Coaches plan can also be taken as being a favorite. So there is likely dissension.

Mike needs to talk to all guys individually. Mike needs to get them all in a room and let them clear the air, he should have someone lead who everyone likes and trusts. There is always one guy. Then he needs to meet with them as a team and try to get them all to commit to salvaging a salvageable situation.

Let's hope not to late for the above.