Today and beyond!

GuardTheArc

Top Member
Dec 4, 2014
696
1,089
Natty is awfully optimistic...........

Rhoades (3.5 yrs)
vs Top 100 KP: 14-26 (5 wins road/neutral) - by Sat night 23 Jan 2021, this could very well be 14-28
vs <Top 100 KP: 56-13

Wade (2.0 yrs)
vs Top 100 KP: 17-17 (8 wins road/neutral)
vs <Top 100 KP: 34-3

Smart (6.0 yrs)
vs Top 100 KP: 62-43 (35 wins road/neutral)
vs <Top 100 KP: 102-13

Observations:
1) Mike's continuing and insistent allegiance to his upperclassmen (Johnny Williams, Malik Crowfield, Kel Simms, Corey Douglas, KeShawn Curry, etc) will likely be his undoing
2) New transfer rule puts serious pressure on staff to provide immediate playing time to newbies (or else) - and greater ease of exit for accomplished players to P6 programs; player retention/attrition will become even more a focal point; year-to-year roster continuity will be even more challenging (especially w/ no Stu sellouts this year and no recent string of NCAA appearances as anchors)
3) No Rhoades Top 100 KP offenses in 7 yrs as D-1 head coach (almost impossible to win consistently being inefficient at one end; too tolerant of turnovers)
4) Competition: Schmidt, Ford, Grant, Dambrot, Mooney, McCall, Cox, McKillop, etc. Tough to see Rhoades out-recruiting/out-coaching this bunch consistently (though I suspect Ford bolts for P6 if they dance in March w/ Goodwin/French/Perkins leaving)
5) Mike and staff not known as specialists in any one area: recruiting, motivation, tacticians, strategists, offensive creativity, etc. (note: defense, though metrically effective, frequently gets pierced against the good comp; feasts on the inferior comp)
6) Staff has some difficulty w/ roster construction/mgmt, player rotation/roles, minutes allocations, in-game strategies/adjustments, high-level recruiting and national reach
7) Year 4 of Rhoades and, right now, we have just one kid on our roster (that we know of) who can create his own shot and score consistently
8) "Being a good dude" doesn't really move the needle ("wanna be a good father (i.e. coach), go play with your kids" - Glengarry)
 

mrgeode

Top Tuna
Top Member
Mar 22, 2013
7,945
17,060
Also some Jamir freshman comparison numbers to Treveon, for anyone wondering about minutes and what he's doing with those minutes at this point in his career.

Minutes Per Game
16.8 - Treveon
15.3* - Jamir

Worth noting he can still raise that number and he's averaging 17+ minutes if you exclude those first three games where he averaged under 12 in each.

Points Per Game
7.3 - Jamir
7 - Treveon

Rebounds Per Game
3.2 - Treveon
2.6 - Jamir

Total Rebound Percentage
11.7% - Treveon
9.8 - Jamir

True Shooting Percentage
66.6% - Jami
50.4% - Treveon

Steals Percentage
2.7% each

Player Efficiency Rating
18.5 - Treveon
18.1 - Jamir

Overall Box +/-
+3.4 - Jamir
+2.6 - Treveon

LOTS of season still to be played (er...I hope), but you can see that Treveon, an eventual VCU legend and NBA player, was getting basically the same mount of burn as Jamir is getting his freshman year so far. I guess the key difference though is Tre was backing up Bradford Burgess and Troy Daniels (hello!) whereas Jamir is coming in for Vince (who has been ballin out this year) and KeShawn.
Tre's free throw rate his freshman year was significantly higher, although Jamir shoots more 3s and hits them at a better clip (and his current FTR is slightly higher Tre's next three years). Tre had a slightly better turnover percentage but also slightly less usage. None of this is a knock; Tre's an all-timer and however you slice the stats, Jamir's ballin'.
 

Natty

Co-Founder
Top Member
Insider
Feb 12, 2009
5,894
14,308
Natty is awfully optimistic...........

Rhoades (3.5 yrs)
vs Top 100 KP: 14-26 (5 wins road/neutral) - by Sat night 23 Jan 2021, this could very well be 14-28
vs <Top 100 KP: 56-13

Wade (2.0 yrs)
vs Top 100 KP: 17-17 (8 wins road/neutral)
vs <Top 100 KP: 34-3

Smart (6.0 yrs)
vs Top 100 KP: 62-43 (35 wins road/neutral)
vs <Top 100 KP: 102-13

Observations:
1) Mike's continuing and insistent allegiance to his upperclassmen (Johnny Williams, Malik Crowfield, Kel Simms, Corey Douglas, KeShawn Curry, etc) will likely be his undoing
2) New transfer rule puts serious pressure on staff to provide immediate playing time to newbies (or else) - and greater ease of exit for accomplished players to P6 programs; player retention/attrition will become even more a focal point; year-to-year roster continuity will be even more challenging (especially w/ no Stu sellouts this year and no recent string of NCAA appearances as anchors)
3) No Rhoades Top 100 KP offenses in 7 yrs as D-1 head coach (almost impossible to win consistently being inefficient at one end; too tolerant of turnovers)
4) Competition: Schmidt, Ford, Grant, Dambrot, Mooney, McCall, Cox, McKillop, etc. Tough to see Rhoades out-recruiting/out-coaching this bunch consistently (though I suspect Ford bolts for P6 if they dance in March w/ Goodwin/French/Perkins leaving)
5) Mike and staff not known as specialists in any one area: recruiting, motivation, tacticians, strategists, offensive creativity, etc. (note: defense, though metrically effective, frequently gets pierced against the good comp; feasts on the inferior comp)
6) Staff has some difficulty w/ roster construction/mgmt, player rotation/roles, minutes allocations, in-game strategies/adjustments, high-level recruiting and national reach
7) Year 4 of Rhoades and, right now, we have just one kid on our roster (that we know of) who can create his own shot and score consistently
8) "Being a good dude" doesn't really move the needle ("wanna be a good father (i.e. coach), go play with your kids" - Glengarry)

Going down the observations list...

1) Hason is averaging more minutes than a senior B12 big man transfer. I've definitely thought he had this issue in the past (Kel at the 4 last year), but I think he's shown signs this year that argue the opposite, that he'll play young talent if he trusts it to produce at the position (see: Baldwin, Ace).

2) Can only control what you control there. Mike's players and former players all seem to really like and respect him, so that's a good start to preventing that.

3) He had Rice (Rice!) at 109 his final year there. If we didn't have such a high turnover rate this year, we'd be in. Four of his 7 teams have been top-60 in 2p%, which I love. Get me a coach who can consistently get his teams to hit the easy buckets and you're on to something. Add three consecutive top-50 defenses (two of those three top-25) and you're off to a good start.

4) Mike is currently out-recruiting all of them, at least according to recruit rankings services. His 2017 class ranked 2nd in the league, 2018 5th, 2019 2nd, 2020 1st, 2021 2nd so far. He's been the most consistent recruiter since he joined the conference and that only gets easier when he gets his guys in to hopefully win like he wants to.

5) That's kind of viewed through a negative Nancy homer lens. Again, he's been a part of some elite defenses since taking over here and was the Associate Head Coach of some elite defenses when he was here earlier. Gotta give him some credit.

6) I think that's a bit TBD. I haven't been convinced he's an X's & O's genius, I'll admit that, but Jim Crews looked like a lot smarter of a coach at SLU (No.19 nationally, then No.35) before all of Rick Majerus' recruits graduated.

7) I assume that player you mention is Bones? I'll note that Bones, while one of my favorite VCU players ever, ranks 7th on this team in true shooting percentage at 56.3%. I'd argue Vince does a solid job at creating his own shot (61.3% true shooting % this year) and Jamir has looked promising there (66.6% true shooting percentage) as well. Jamir's per 40 so far his freshman year is 23.1 pp40 on literally half the shots Bones takes (9.8 attempts per 40 to 20.4). That's a nice developing weapon, which makes you understand why Bob Huggins wanted him as well.

8) Again, I feel like a younger me would be a bit less patient, but the beauty of age and experience (not to mention writing about basketball for 13 years with an obsession with data for maybe 6 or 7 years of that), is I think I can see what Rhoades is building. And having four coaches come and go since I began attending VCU in 2003 (that group staying an average of 3.75 years, I'm willing to stand with a coach who has been a longtime Richmond native now that I think CAN build VCU and will stay here to take it to another level. Being a good dude obviously doesn't guarantee ya success (see: Paulsen, Dave), but after the Will Wade "era", I think it certainly means something. Does to me at least.

Again, I do think there are a few questionable adds (and I certainly make my opinion known at the time to anyone on staff I have a relationship with!), but overall I believe in the direction Mike and Co. have us heading in. This season is long from over, so we'll see if I'm puffing my chest out on that claim in a couple of months or if I've turned to the dark side myself, but I do think the next few years for us can be pretty special. Excited about the graduations of Richmond's entire playing lineup, for a huge chunk of SLU to go pro next season, to say goodbye to Fatts & Shep, Crutcher & Ibi, and or Mike's foundation to age up, level up and shine. We're close, if you ask me.
 

theyaintwantit

Top Member
Dec 22, 2009
960
2,587
8) Again, I feel like a younger me would be a bit less patient, but the beauty of age and experience (not to mention writing about basketball for 13 years with an obsession with data for maybe 6 or 7 years of that), is I think I can see what Rhoades is building. And having four coaches come and go since I began attending VCU in 2003 (that group staying an average of 3.75 years, I'm willing to stand with a coach who has been a longtime Richmond native now that I think CAN build VCU and will stay here to take it to another level. Being a good dude obviously doesn't guarantee ya success (see: Paulsen, Dave), but after the Will Wade "era", I think it certainly means something. Does to me at least.
Natty - I think your point in #8 is dead on.
I think it's fair if by the time this freshman class are junior or seniors and MR and staff are NOT regularly competing for NCAA appearances, then criticism is absolutely fair and a discussion on a change would be warranted.

There are some quirks MR has as a coach that I question, but WW NOT starting Mo for whatever f///ing lame fouling reason and/or Shaka letting Teddy Okareafor (sp?) play PG against f///ing Trey Burke & Michigan were also bad moves too/