Understanding what it takes to get an at-large from a mid-major conference (long)

BracketForecast

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I have seen so much speculation about the A10 being a one bid league. I swear we do this every single season. One of the reasons is because fans from non-power conferences think the standard for an at-large bid is a lot higher than it actually is, especially when it comes to the number of Q1 wins required.

Take for example a team with the following resume:
Q1: 1-3
Q1+2: 8-3
Q3/4 losses: 0
NCSOS: 31
Road: 6-2
Wins vs at-large field: 2 (home vs 11 seed, Neutral vs 11 seed)

Not only is this a bid, it's a 6 seed (San Diego St: 2021)

Another:
Q1: 1-1
Q1+2: 8-3
Q3 L's: 2 (at 185, N - 116)
Q4 L's: 0
Road: 9-3
NCSOS: 86
Wins vs AL field: 2 (home vs 8 seed, neutral vs 11 seed)

This is a 7 seed (2019 Nevada)

Here's one where things get dicey:

Q1: 2-5
Q1+2: 4-7
Q3L's: 2 (N-115, at 189)
Q4 L's: 0
Road: 5-3
NCSOS: 66
Wins vs AL field: 2 (home vs 6 seed, twice)

This is an 11 seed (Utah St 2021)

One last one:

Q1: 2-2
Q1+2: 5-4
Q3L's: 3 (H vs 107, at 137, N 137)
Q4L's: 0
Road: 8-4
NCSOS: 2
wins vs AL field: 1 (11 seed)

That's VCU 2019. 8 seed. The NCSOS pulled us up a couple of seed lines, but we still would have been in without it, despite 3 bad losses and no signature wins.

To most of the uninitiated, they would think the last two teams would be headed for the NIT. The wonderful thing is that the selection committee has to select 36 teams that don't win their conference, which usually translates to everyone in the top 45 or so getting a bid. There is plenty of time for VCU and others non named Bona in the A10 to get hot and start reeling off a bunch of Q2 wins with a couple of Q1 wins.

Once you get past teams 34-35, the resumes start looking REALLY rough. In VCU's case, we likely already have 1 Q1 win (and certainly 2 wins in the top 2 quads - Vandy could finish top 75 and Cuse always sucks to start the season and ends up top 50). The loss to Wagner is rough, I will give you that, but all they need to do is finish in the NET top 160 for it to be a Q3 loss. Chattanooga isn't finishing any worse than 100 if they stay healthy, so that's a Q3 loss at worst and possibly Q2.

All this to say is keep an eye on the rest of the OOC. I think VCU has worked through enough of their issues on offense that their defense is going to manhandle most of what's left. If we win out, I think we can go 12-6 in A10 play and be squarely on the bubble under the following scenario:

Q1: (3-5)
Baylor L
UConn L
Cuse or Vandy (1 of these is Q1) W
Bona (H) W
Bona (A) L
@Dav, @SLU (split) W, L
@UR, @Mason, @Dayton (1 of 3 should be Q1) L

Q2: (4-2)
Dav W
@ Rhody L
@Day/@UR/@Mason (2 of 3 should be Q2) W, L
UR, Mason, Dayton (H) (1 of 3 should be Q2) W
Cuse or Vandy W

Q3L's: 3
Chatt
Wagner
Marginally bad A10 road loss (1 of @Mason, @UR, @Day)

Road: 6-5

Plenty of time, and hopes to get an at-large are far from dead.
 
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I have seen so much speculation about the A10 being a one bid league. I swear we do this every single season. One of the reasons is because fans from non-power conferences think the standard for an at-large bid is a lot higher than it actually is, especially when it comes to the number of Q1 wins required.

Take for example a team with the following resume:
Q1: 1-3
Q1+2: 8-3
Q3/4 losses: 0
NCSOS: 31
Road: 6-2
Wins vs at-large field: 2 (home vs 11 seed, Neutral vs 11 seed)

Not only is this a bid, it's a 6 seed (San Diego St: 2021)

Another:
Q1: 1-1
Q1+2: 8-3
Q3 L's: 2 (at 185, N - 116)
Q4 L's: 0
Road: 9-3
NCSOS: 86
Wins vs AL field: 2 (home vs 8 seed, neutral vs 11 seed)

This is a 7 seed (2019 Nevada)

Here's one where things get dicey:

Q1: 2-5
Q1+2: 4-7
Q3L's: 2 (N-115, at 189)
Q4 L's: 0
Road: 5-3
NCSOS: 66
Wins vs AL field: 2 (home vs 6 seed, twice)

This is an 11 seed (Utah St 2021)

One last one:

Q1: 2-2
Q1+2: 5-4
Q3L's: 3 (H vs 107, at 137, N 137)
Q4L's: 0
Road: 8-4
NCSOS: 2
wins vs AL field: 1 (11 seed)

That's VCU 2019. 8 seed. The NCSOS pulled us up a couple of seed lines, but we still would have been in without it, despite 3 bad losses and no signature wins.

To most of the uninitiated, they would think the last two teams would be headed for the NIT. The wonderful thing is that the selection committee has to select 36 teams that don't win their conference, which usually translates to everyone in the top 45 or so getting a bid. There is plenty of time for VCU and others non named Bona in the A10 to get hot and start reeling off a bunch of Q2 wins with a couple of Q1 wins.

Once you get past teams 34-35, the resumes start looking REALLY rough. In VCU's case, we likely already have 1 Q1 win (and certainly 2 wins in the top 2 quads - Vandy could finish top 75 and Cuse always sucks to start the season and ends up top 50). The loss to Wagner is rough, I will give you that, but all they need to do is finish in the NET top 160 for it to be a Q3 loss. Chattanooga isn't finishing any worse than 100 if they stay healthy, so that's a Q3 loss at worst and possibly Q2.

All this to say is keep an eye on the rest of the OOC. I think VCU has worked through enough of their issues on offense that their defense is going to manhandle most of what's left. If we win out, I think we can go 12-6 in A10 play and be squarely on the bubble under the following scenario:

Q1: (3-5)
Baylor L
UConn L
Cuse or Vandy (1 of these is Q1) W
Bona (H) W
Bona (A) L
@Dav, @SLU (split) W, L
@UR, @Mason, @Dayton (1 of 3 should be Q1) L

Q2: (4-2)
Dav W
@ Rhody L
@Day/@UR/@Mason (2 of 3 should be Q2) W, L
UR, Mason, Dayton (H) (1 of 3 should be Q2) W
Cuse or Vandy W

Q3L's: 3
Chatt
Wagner
Marginally bad A10 road loss (1 of @Mason, @UR, @Day)

Road: 6-5

Plenty of time, and hopes to get an at-large are far from dead.
I also think we may be built for the A10 tournament, especially compared to the other likely top contenders.
 
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N Mollen

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I have seen so much speculation about the A10 being a one bid league. I swear we do this every single season. One of the reasons is because fans from non-power conferences think the standard for an at-large bid is a lot higher than it actually is, especially when it comes to the number of Q1 wins required.

Take for example a team with the following resume:
Q1: 1-3
Q1+2: 8-3
Q3/4 losses: 0
NCSOS: 31
Road: 6-2
Wins vs at-large field: 2 (home vs 11 seed, Neutral vs 11 seed)

Not only is this a bid, it's a 6 seed (San Diego St: 2021)

Another:
Q1: 1-1
Q1+2: 8-3
Q3 L's: 2 (at 185, N - 116)
Q4 L's: 0
Road: 9-3
NCSOS: 86
Wins vs AL field: 2 (home vs 8 seed, neutral vs 11 seed)

This is a 7 seed (2019 Nevada)

Here's one where things get dicey:

Q1: 2-5
Q1+2: 4-7
Q3L's: 2 (N-115, at 189)
Q4 L's: 0
Road: 5-3
NCSOS: 66
Wins vs AL field: 2 (home vs 6 seed, twice)

This is an 11 seed (Utah St 2021)

One last one:

Q1: 2-2
Q1+2: 5-4
Q3L's: 3 (H vs 107, at 137, N 137)
Q4L's: 0
Road: 8-4
NCSOS: 2
wins vs AL field: 1 (11 seed)

That's VCU 2019. 8 seed. The NCSOS pulled us up a couple of seed lines, but we still would have been in without it, despite 3 bad losses and no signature wins.

To most of the uninitiated, they would think the last two teams would be headed for the NIT. The wonderful thing is that the selection committee has to select 36 teams that don't win their conference, which usually translates to everyone in the top 45 or so getting a bid. There is plenty of time for VCU and others non named Bona in the A10 to get hot and start reeling off a bunch of Q2 wins with a couple of Q1 wins.

Once you get past teams 34-35, the resumes start looking REALLY rough. In VCU's case, we likely already have 1 Q1 win (and certainly 2 wins in the top 2 quads - Vandy could finish top 75 and Cuse always sucks to start the season and ends up top 50). The loss to Wagner is rough, I will give you that, but all they need to do is finish in the NET top 160 for it to be a Q3 loss. Chattanooga isn't finishing any worse than 100 if they stay healthy, so that's a Q3 loss at worst and possibly Q2.

All this to say is keep an eye on the rest of the OOC. I think VCU has worked through enough of their issues on offense that their defense is going to manhandle most of what's left. If we win out, I think we can go 12-6 in A10 play and be squarely on the bubble under the following scenario:

Q1: (3-5)
Baylor L
UConn L
Cuse or Vandy (1 of these is Q1) W
Bona (H) W
Bona (A) L
@Dav, @SLU (split) W, L
@UR, @Mason, @Dayton (1 of 3 should be Q1) L

Q2: (4-2)
Dav W
@ Rhody L
@Day/@UR/@Mason (2 of 3 should be Q2) W, L
UR, Mason, Dayton (H) (1 of 3 should be Q2) W
Cuse or Vandy W

Q3L's: 3
Chatt
Wagner
Marginally bad A10 road loss (1 of @Mason, @UR, @Day)

Road: 6-5

Plenty of time, and hopes to get an at-large are far from dead.
You're absolutely right; we do this every year. Because every year we lose to or play close games with perceived weak sisters and people freak out, declaring in November that at-large hopes are "done." Thanks for providing a little data
 

VCU Heel

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tldr

Where are we now after losing to UConn and with our current schedule ahead of us?
 

DisplacedRam

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Our program has cracked the code to putting ourselves in position to earn at-large bids, more so than nearly every other D1 program. It will be a lot easier to see the lay of the land once the first NET's are revealed and we can accurately compare team sheets and I am very much looking forward to it! The #OneBidLeague talk was warranted though because only one team was looking like it could make noise but a lot has changed in the past 10 days or so.
 
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Our program has cracked the code to putting ourselves in position to earn at-large bids, more so than nearly every other D1 program. It will be a lot easier to see the lay of the land once the first NET's are revealed and we can accurately compare team sheets and I am very much looking forward to it! The #OneBidLeague talk was warranted though because only one team was looking like it could make noise but a lot has changed in the past 10 days or so.
I'm goimg to go out on a limb that that the first net won't be pretty. A portion of NET is win %, which will improve over the next month. If I had to guess, I'd say we start around 110 if it comes out this week.
 

Wolfpack Ram

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I'm goimg to go out on a limb that that the first net won't be pretty. A portion of NET is win %, which will improve over the next month. If I had to guess, I'd say we start around 110 if it comes out this week.

I agree. VCU and the A-10 have too many questionable losses at home. VCU has two and Dayton has three to start with. Even St. Bonaventure has a home loss to Northern Iowa. Unless someone finds lightening in a bottle, the climb for both VCU and the A-10 is going to be uphill.
 

WillWeaverRVA

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A: believe that's last year
B: NET doesn't mean much this early
C: We're 37
The official NET won’t be out until January. We’ll have to rely on KP and Torvik until then. What appears on CBS Sports and Nolan are calculated by them, I think.
 
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