VCU A-10 efficiency margin by year and how this team ranks (currently...)

[Natty]

More fun with numbers...

Efficiency margin is really how teams get ranked on kenpom, with VCU's entire body of work this season giving them an adjusted efficiency margin of +10.52 to currently rank us 76th nationally. We were +12.31 last season as an NIT team, so clearly on the year haven't even been as impressive as that year and were +15.04 the season before that as an NCAA tourney team (who didn't get to play). The Final 4 team was +13.49 and our best ranking was +20.28 during the 2012-13 season.

But just for fun, I wanted to see what our in-conference efficiency margins were since joining the A-10, because currently we're kinda balling. So here's the list...

12-13: +11.9 (2nd place)
13-14: +12.3 (2nd place)
14-15: +7
15-16: +15.7 (shared regular season title)
16-17: +12.4 (2nd place)
17-18: -0.6
18-19: +19.8 (regular season champs)
19-20: +2.8
20-21: +4.9
21-22: +9.1
22-23: +17.2 (TBD...)

At the end of today's game we'll only be officially halfway through our 18-game conference schedule, BUT...this is a great way to start and a promising reading of the tea leaves of really this team's POTENTIAL if they keep playing as a team like they have been. In this year's A-10 Dayton sits at +12.2, SLU at +11 currently, then you've got pretty much everyone else in the very low single digits or in the red. The last five regular season champs were +11.4 (Davidson), +15.1 (Bona), +20.7 (the Obi Toppin Dayton squad) and +19.8 (VCU).

Still some tough games with getting the Dayton rematch and SLU twice, but also nice to know two of those games are at our place AND...as farfetched as our at-large hopes may be, if we didn't have those matchups we'd have absolutely zero chance of an at-large bid. Those at least can potentially put you in the bubble discussion if you can win at least two of em.

 

[Natty]

Also because I'm sure you're curious after reading that, here is the A-10 in-conference efficiency margin ranking heading into today's games...

1. VCU +17.2
2. Dayton +12.2
3. SLU +11
4. Duquesne +3
5. GW +2.4
6. St. Joe's -0.2
7. Davidson -0.7
8. Mason -0.8
9. Bona -1.3
10 (tie). Richmond -1.9
10 (tie). Fordham -1.9
12. Rhody -5
13. UMass -5.9
14. La Salle -9
15. Loyola -19.9

It's also interesting because if you go back and look at some previous A-10's, you've got teams further down the final standings in the positive and just a higher percentage of the league in the positive. I'm a little surprised by those numbers from teams No.6 and under. To me Mason, even though we smoked em, just seems like a better team than that, Loyola is stunning at -19.9, etc etc etc. Our remaining schedule (nine games total) features matchups with six in the red, half at home, half on the road.

 

[duncanlamb]

What's the formula for efficiency rating?

 

[Natty]

What's the formula for efficiency rating?

It's just the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) minus the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions).

 

[Violet Ram]

It's just the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) minus the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions).

Just to clarify, it's adjusted offense minus adjusted defense.

 

[BaNgMyPrOgRaM]

What about special teams?

 

[Natty]

Just to clarify, it's adjusted offense minus adjusted defense.

It's actually not adjusted. In-conference it's straight up offensive and defensive efficiency. Not schedule stuff taken into account because it's within the conference, so those are raw numbers.

 

[Natty]

Also to update after last night's performance...

A-10 top-3
Dayton +15.3
VCU +15
SLU +11

Dayton is a scary team and I think will end up being the team to beat in the conference. Basically they are gonna figure things out as their roster gets healthier now that Mali and Kobe are back. They have the 2nd-ranked defense in conference, but a better offense than us statistically speaking because they get easy baskets inside and out. Last night's loss to Bona was brutal, because this year's No.1 seed has a SERIOUS edge not having to be in a 2 v 3 game that could include two of those teams above. There's a serious drop after those three in terms of efficiency.

 

[VCUBusiness]

Also to update after last night's performance...

A-10 top-3
Dayton +15.3
VCU +15
SLU +11

Dayton is a scary team and I think will end up being the team to beat in the conference. Basically they are gonna figure things out as their roster gets healthier now that Mali and Kobe are back. They have the 2nd-ranked defense in conference, but a better offense than us statistically speaking because they get easy baskets inside and out. Last night's loss to Bona was brutal, because this year's No.1 seed has a SERIOUS edge not having to be in a 2 v 3 game that could include two of those teams above. There's a serious drop after those three in terms of efficiency.

This is what worries me about the idea of “everything is ok because we can still win the A-10 and go dancing”. Yes, it’s still a possibility, but it will take an alignment of everything right in order for it to happen. With the way the league is, the road to the finals will be brutal. I don’t feel confident in where this season ends.

 

[RamStrut]

Also to update after last night's performance...

A-10 top-3
Dayton +15.3
VCU +15
SLU +11

Dayton is a scary team and I think will end up being the team to beat in the conference. Basically they are gonna figure things out as their roster gets healthier now that Mali and Kobe are back. They have the 2nd-ranked defense in conference, but a better offense than us statistically speaking because they get easy baskets inside and out. Last night's loss to Bona was brutal, because this year's No.1 seed has a SERIOUS edge not having to be in a 2 v 3 game that could include two of those teams above. There's a serious drop after those three in terms of efficiency.

I agree. I still think they’re the team to beat in the A10. We stole one on their court and it’s going to be tough to handle them back at the Stu.