VCU and A10 advanced metrics/rankings (NET, KenPom, Torvik)

BracketForecast

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Totally meaningless until we are (at least) a few weeks into the season
This is not at all true. Kenpom's pre-season rankings are based on objective and historical production, not subjective analysis. He gets a handful of teams wrong (see St. Joe's last year), but overall his pre-season rankings have pretty solid predictive value.

Also, starting this thread as a bookmark now to come back to throughout the season doesn't make it any less meaningful.
 

N Mollen

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This is not at all true. Kenpom's pre-season rankings are based on objective and historical production, not subjective analysis. He gets a handful of teams wrong (see St. Joe's last year), but overall his pre-season rankings have pretty solid predictive value.
Really? What is their "objective and historical" production analysis of Bones? What are the scientific data on Jamion Christian's work at GWU?

Bull$hit until December at earliest.
 

BracketForecast

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Really? What is their "objective and historical" production analysis of Bones? What are the scientific data on Jamion Christian's work at GWU?

Bull$hit until December at earliest.
Me, a person who got all 68 teams correct last year: "here's a thing that has some value. It's not perfect, but it can give a general feel for the strength and weakness of some teams."

You, a grumpass:
123.gif
 

N Mollen

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Me, a person who got all 68 teams correct last year: "here's a thing that has some value. It's not perfect, but it can give a general feel for the strength and weakness of some teams."

You, a grumpass:
View attachment 7589
Oh, I am sorry. I missed the post where you said it's just "a thing that has some value. It's not perfect" etc. Was it in this thread? I didn't see it.

Still, I think you are wrong. Am I allowed to disagree?

What kind of improvement will we get from Curry?

Will Curry even see the court?

Can Ward and MSS play together? Can he play defense?

Will Evans regress or take another step?

Is McAllister any good?

He doesn't know, you don't know, I don't know, but he can nonetheless measure our O and D rank down to a tenth of a point? I am skeptical.

For that matter, how does it figure what SLU is going to be, when it will have pretty much a new starting 5?

I realize some people are way way in love with analytics, but just because it has a number assigned to it doesn't mean that it is science.

Your spectacular 68 team guess was based on an entire year of actual games. You know, data. This is a WAG and for preseason purposes, I think the eyeballing guesses made by Rothstein and the like are probably more reliable than this fake science.
 
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BracketForecast

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May 9, 2011
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Oh, I am sorry. I missed the post where you said it's just "a thing that has some value. It's not perfect" etc. Was it in this thread? I didn't see it.

Still, I think you are wrong. Am I allowed to disagree?

What kind of improvement will we get from Curry?

Will Curry even see the court?

Can Ward and MSS play together? Can he play defense?

Will Evans regress or take another step?

Is McAllister any good?

He doesn't know, you don't know, I don't know, but he can nonetheless measure our O and D rank down to a tenth of a point? I am skeptical.

For that matter, how does it figure what SLU is going to be, when it will have pretty much a new starting 5?

I realize some people are way way in love with analytics, but just because it has a number assigned to it doesn't mean that it is science.

Your spectacular 68 team guess was based on an entire year of actual games. You know, data. This is a WAG and for preseason purposes, I think the eyeballing guesses made by Rothstein and the like are probably more reliable than this fake science.
Hoo boy. Not even gonna argue with you. You seem like you have some stuff you need to work out outside of this message board. Just gonna hit that ignore button and move on.
 
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N Mollen

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Well that's unfortunate. We were just talking sports, I thought. I suppose that means the answer to the question "am I allowed to disagree?" is no.
 

BracketForecast

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Anyway, our SOS will be impacted by how Davidson and Dayton do in their first game of their respective early season tournaments. Here's what their tournament schedule could look like if they each win their first game vs losing:

Davidson:
Wins first game of Orlando invitational:
Marquette (17)
USC (58)
Maryland (7) or Texas A&M (58)

Loses first game:
Marquette (17)
Fairfield (278)
Harvard (75) or Temple (90)

Dayton:
Wins first game of Maui:
Georgia (55)
Michigan St. (1)
Kansas (10) or BYU (72)

Loses first game:
Georgia (55)
Virginia Tech (54)
UCLA (107) or Chaminade (Div II)
 

Ramcounter

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Dec 7, 2011
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Really? What is their "objective and historical" production analysis of Bones? What are the scientific data on Jamion Christian's work at GWU?

Bull$hit until December at earliest.
He wrote about how he counts freshman in his predictions on his blog. Also, he does explain how the preseason rankings are used mid season.

Finally, there is no change on incoming freshmen. The top 30 or so have an impact on a team’s rating and beyond that the computer is mostly blind to newcomers. That’s not to say it can’t make some guesses, though. In fact, it’s kind of a fun challenge to predict the impact of recruiting classes without any information on the recruiting class itself. Things like basketball budget, conference affiliation, recent performance, and whether the coach is returning handle some of this. But history says you can also glean some information from what kinds of players have left a team.
When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system?
As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.
 

Ramcounter

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Dec 7, 2011
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Anyway, our SOS will be impacted by how Davidson and Dayton do in their first game of their respective early season tournaments. Here's what their tournament schedule could look like if they each win their first game vs losing:

Davidson:
Wins first game of Orlando invitational:
Marquette (17)
USC (58)
Maryland (7) or Texas A&M (58)

Loses first game:
Marquette (17)
Fairfield (278)
Harvard (75) or Temple (90)

Dayton:
Wins first game of Maui:
Georgia (55)
Michigan St. (1)
Kansas (10) or BYU (72)

Loses first game:
Georgia (55)
Virginia Tech (54)
UCLA (107) or Chaminade (Div II)
What would the impact be if the Bonnie’s steam roll their cup cake non conference schedule? Would that help the conference’s SOS if they have a gamed NET rating or would their Non Conference SOS hurt?
 

BracketForecast

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What would the impact be if the Bonnie’s steam roll their cup cake non conference schedule? Would that help the conference’s SOS if they have a gamed NET rating or would their Non Conference SOS hurt?
I think that's the hope. Their SOS is garbage, so you'll want them to obliterate their OOC opponents and come into A10 play with a high NET rating.
 
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N Mollen

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He wrote about how he counts freshman in his predictions on his blog. Also, he does explain how the preseason rankings are used mid season.



This makes no sense to me. He "counts" freshmen if they are in the "top 30 or so," presumably even if they are playing behind an all American and will see few minutes, but a top 50 who will start is not "counted?" And how does he calculate the value of the top 30 recruit (a status that itself is almost 100% subjective)?

He's certainly as entitled as anyone else to project how he thinks teams will perform, but giving it the patina of math seems to me to be fraudulent.

BTW, he had us as #126 preseason last year and we ended up at #46. The latter number, based on actual performance and played games, by VCU and all of the other 351 D1 teams, has some value. The former number is just a WAG just like the AP top 25, but masquerading as science.
 

rammad90

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This makes no sense to me. He "counts" freshmen if they are in the "top 30 or so," presumably even if they are playing behind an all American and will see few minutes, but a top 50 who will start is not "counted?" And how does he calculate the value of the top 30 recruit (a status that itself is almost 100% subjective)?

He's certainly as entitled as anyone else to project how he thinks teams will perform, but giving it the patina of math seems to me to be fraudulent.

BTW, he had us as #126 preseason last year and we ended up at #46. The latter number, based on actual performance and played games, by VCU and all of the other 351 D1 teams, has some value. The former number is just a WAG just like the AP top 25, but masquerading as science.
Also, what about a top 150 recruit that is a perfect fit for a team like VCU ( a high mid major with top 20 potential). I get it top 30 guys are valuable but as you state it depends. It seems a bit suspicious. I'd have to see more data on the impact of top 30 players.