VCU and A10 advanced metrics/rankings (NET, KenPom, Torvik)

irradiated_ram

Insider
Jan 23, 2013
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They are under the median, but not under 60% of the median. The median right now is 11.5, and 60% of that is 6.9 (so, 7). They've played 8 games so they do make the cut as of right now.

Side note: I never thought I'd use the word "median" this much in a basketball forum, haha..

Don't they play each other twice in the next few days? Unless the schedule has changed and hasn't been updated..

I see them playing each other twice; Mason has GW on Wednesday
Small, but pertinent detail....the median cannot be 11.5, or any non-whole number since were talking about games played.
 
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Dec 8, 2011
828
433
Is that correct?
I thought LaSalle 17
Dayton & URI 16
VCU, SBU, GMU & Duquesne 14
Fordham 13

Therefore 13.5 and 60% is 8.1
Will GW have 8 or only 7? Don’t they have 5 played +pause+ 2 rescheduled?
I have:
URI 18
LaSalle 17
Dayton 16
St Bona 15
VCU 14
St Joes/Fordham 13
Duquesne/Fmason 12
Davidson/Fur 11
UMass/SLU 10
GW 8

This is assuming every game is played from here on out. Remember, Rhody has 3 left and SB has 4.
 

urmite

Top Member
Mar 22, 2011
2,094
3,314
Based on their schedule they don’t play until Tuesday against UR and then St. Louis on the 28th. I cannot locate where they played recently. I cannot locate their 7th win.
Did they beat LaSalle twice on December 16? That seems to be the problem...
 

urmite

Top Member
Mar 22, 2011
2,094
3,314
They played LaSalle a second time on January 9. Their schedule actually only has them playing 8 A-10 total, with 6 wins and 2 losses.
6-2 is correct, but the A-10 said it was 7-2 (see post above) because they counted the 12/16 game twice...

I think the A-10 site is correct now.
 
Dec 16, 2013
611
891
Here's the other thing: based on the remaining schedule, assuming every game gets played from here until March 1, the final median number of conference games will be 12.5. 60% of that is 7.5, so any team who has played 8 conference games will be seeded based on percentage. If every remaining game is played, every team will reach the 8-game requ

I have:
URI 18
LaSalle 17
Dayton 16
St Bona 15
VCU 14
St Joes/Fordham 13
Duquesne/Fmason 12
Davidson/Fur 11
UMass/SLU 10
GW 8

This is assuming every game is played from here on out. Remember, Rhody has 3 left and SB has 4.
duquense and GMU will play 14 games not 12
the 7th team plays 14 games and the 8th team plays 13 games (so I assume the median gets calculated as the average of the 7th and 8th team in a 14 team league - but it was nearly 50 years ago I took stats
60% of that is 8.1 (GWU is likely the only one under but they would be 12-13th seed anyway ) Will Fordham be able to play in tourney or ......
 
Dec 8, 2011
828
433
duquense and GMU will play 14 games not 12
the 7th team plays 14 games and the 8th team plays 13 games (so I assume the median gets calculated as the average of the 7th and 8th team in a 14 team league - but it was nearly 50 years ago I took stats
60% of that is 8.1 (GWU is likely the only one under but they would be 12-13th seed anyway ) Will Fordham be able to play in tourney or ......
Ahh very good catch..
I do wonder about Fordham; don't you think they'll just opt out, especially with no games between February 14 and the start of the A10 tournament? Come to Richmond to add one final loss for the season, for old times sake?
 

urmite

Top Member
Mar 22, 2011
2,094
3,314
I have:
URI 18
LaSalle 17
Dayton 16
St Bona 15
VCU 14
St Joes/Fordham 13
Duquesne/Fmason 12
Davidson/Fur 11
UMass/SLU 10
GW 8

This is assuming every game is played from here on out. Remember, Rhody has 3 left and SB has 4.
I missed the games tomorrow because the A-10 said they would have the revised schedule after Saturday. They meant announcement after Saturday.

And I still don’t see where the 3/2 URI/SJU game came from.


Still 7 with 14 or more, 7 with 13 or less. Watch the A-10 say you round down to 8 so that GW is by %...
 
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theyaintwantit

Top Member
Dec 22, 2009
1,224
3,359
For what it’s worth, our NET dropped from 31 to 35. I figured it would be closer to a 10 or 12 spot drop so this is NOT catastrophic like some of y’all were thinking yesterday. H3ll - Louisville got beat by 45 to UNC and their ranking dropped 23 spots.

I know the NET is not the gospel. It’s used as a tool for metrics, but it still really likes us. Not to mention - a bunch of bubble teams got beat yesterday. I know it’s easy to sulk in our own losses but I’ve looked at WarrenNolan religiously since 2014 and I’d like to remind some of you that there are *checks notes* other fudgeing basketball teams that can effect where you stand.
 
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theyaintwantit

Top Member
Dec 22, 2009
1,224
3,359
For what it’s worth, our NET dropped from 31 to 35.
I know the NET is not the gospel it’s used as a tool for metrics, but it still really likes us.

We have a game on Tuesday night where a W can help erase this poopty loss. Lets get it.
Also, Mason’s win moved them up to 133 in the NET so now we have another Q2 win!

Yesterday really sucked ass, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it. I’m as positive as they come with the team, but my mood for the rest of the day was off. With that said, we have two games on our schedule that can really flip the script after this loss. Bones or no Bones, I want some aggression from these guys.
 

HBK

Top Member
Mar 29, 2010
4,575
10,110
We only dropped to 35, so I’ll be expecting those drinks when COVID is over. 😉
The irony is that by Mason beating us, their NET jumped so much that the win at Mason is now a Quad 2 win for us. The plus side is that we are now 7-3 in Quads 1 and 2 (5-3 in road/neutral site games). The negative is that we are 3-2 in Quad 3 games. According to Warren Nolan’s site, our SOS, both overall and in non-conference, is pretty strong. I still think we are ok, but getting at least one of these games this week seems imperative, as our margin of error is small.
 

mrA10

Top Member
Apr 24, 2009
8,518
12,122
TeamRankings.com dropped our chances of dancing from 80% to 57%. Amazing what one game can do.
We would probably be 85-90% if we showed up yesterday?