VCU and A10 advanced metrics/rankings (NET, KenPom, Torvik)
WillWeaverRVA

WillWeaverRVA

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Dec 30, 2011
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theyaintwantit said:
Ram Fans, let’s take a look at the NET update:
  • VCU dropped from 35 to 38. I was told that yesterday was a horrific loss, which is strange because that’s only a 3 spot drop.
  • St. Bonaventure jumped up 1 spot from 29 to 28. Let’s hope they stay top 30 and remain a Q1 home win for us.
  • Utah State jumped up two spots from 52 to 50 so right now they are a Q1 Neutral site win. They host 102 Nevada tonight which is their last regular season game. Let’s hope for a win.
  • Davidson jumped up 10 spots from 80 to 70 so they are now a Q1 loss. Obviously it’s not ideal to have four Q1 losses, but for anyone saying yesterday that was a “bad” loss, I suggest you follow another sport. Davidson’s jump is HUGE for St Bona because their wins vs Davidson both jumped up a quad.
  • George Mason jumped from 134 to 123. Do NOT ignore this. If they stay inside the top 160 they are a Q3 home loss which is not nearly as bad as a Q4 loss. If they stay in the top 135 they are a Q2 road win which is good for us.
Click to expand...
Looks like despite the loss yesterday, yesterday was a net good day for us (no pun intended). The damage was minimal and our resume actually improved somewhat.

See, folks, this is why freaking out yesterday was such a bad idea. Get everyone healthy and we should be good to go.
 
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HBK

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Mar 29, 2010
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theyaintwantit said:
Ram Fans, let’s take a look at the NET update:
  • VCU dropped from 35 to 38. I was told that yesterday was a horrific loss, which is strange because that’s only a 3 spot drop.
  • St. Bonaventure jumped up 1 spot from 29 to 28. Let’s hope they stay top 30 and remain a Q1 home win for us.
  • Utah State jumped up two spots from 52 to 50 so right now they are a Q1 Neutral site win. They host 102 Nevada tonight which is their last regular season game. Let’s hope for a win.
  • Davidson jumped up 10 spots from 80 to 70 so they are now a Q1 loss. Obviously it’s not ideal to have four Q1 losses, but for anyone saying yesterday that was a “bad” loss, I suggest you follow another sport. Davidson’s jump is HUGE for St Bona because their wins vs Davidson both jumped up a quad.
  • George Mason jumped from 134 to 123. Do NOT ignore this. If they stay inside the top 160 they are a Q3 home loss which is not nearly as bad as a Q4 loss. If they stay in the top 135 they are a Q2 road win which is good for us.
Click to expand...
Who in the world thought losing on the road at a top 100 school while missing two of your top 7 to 8 players (and losing your 2nd best player with about 10 minutes to play) was a horrific loss?
 
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WillWeaverRVA

WillWeaverRVA

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VCUBusiness said:
We are in a good spot. We have time to rest and get guys back for the A10. I think beating SLU was more important for our resume than a loss to Davidson.
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Exactly. I checked out a few bracketologists on Twitter after the loss and they were all in agreement that the win over SLU was huge for our resume despite it only being Q2, probably because it was against another strong bubble team.
 
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WillWeaverRVA

WillWeaverRVA

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HBK said:
Who in the world thought losing on the road at a top 100 school while missing two of your top 7 to 8 players (and losing your 2nd best player with about 10 minutes to play) was a horrific loss?
Click to expand...
You should check the game thread after page 30 or so, but you might have most of those folks on ignore by now. 😬
 
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HBK

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WillWeaverRVA said:
Looks like despite the loss yesterday, yesterday was a net good day for us (no pun intended). The damage was minimal and our resume actually improved somewhat.

See, folks, this is why freaking out yesterday was such a bad idea. Get everyone healthy and we should be good to go.
Click to expand...
After seeing the matrix someone put up yesterday (above on this thread), I realized that we may be in better shape that many think. When I looked over that matrix before the game yesterday, I counted about 15 schools in total with more than 8 wins in Quads 1 & 2. Think about how good that looks. Only 15 schools have more combined Quad 1 & 2 wins than VCU.

Also, there were only about 15 schools with fewer than 3 combined Quad 1 & 2 losses. (At the time I looked we hadn’t tipped against Davidson, so we had only 3 losses in this category.)

We are in good shape I think. Our margin for error is not huge, but I think we look good right now. However, I will defer to @BracketForecast as he is far more of an expert than I on these things.
 
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theyaintwantit

theyaintwantit

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HBK said:
Who in the world thought losing on the road at a top 100 school while missing two of your top 7 to 8 players (and losing your 2nd best player with about 10 minutes to play) was a horrific loss?
Click to expand...
Oh - call me a liar, I used the word “horrific”, no one used that word, but I’m irritated with the lack of knowledge of the quad system from people on this board.

I saw at least 3 “this was a bad loss” comments in the Davidson game thread yesterday. That’s what I’m looking at.
 
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HBK

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theyaintwantit said:
Oh - call me a liar, I used the word “horrific”, no one used that word, but I’m irritated with the lack of knowledge of the quad system from people on this board.

I saw at least 3 “this was a bad loss” comments in the Davidson game thread yesterday. That’s what I’m looking at.
Click to expand...
Understood. It may be a lack of knowledge but it is probably emotions as well.

I commented that I thought we had a fantastic effort yesterday, especially after Vince went down. Someone actually replied and questioned our effort at Davidson. I don’t know how anyone could question the effort VCU gave yesterday. I think the poster was confusing effort with execution. Our execution, especially on offense, was poor. However, I thought our effort was really good all game. You don’t dominate a team on the glass as we did without effort.

Point is that people can get emotional after a game, especially a loss, and post inaccurate things.
 
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Sethjax

Sethjax

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Losing at Davidson is never a bad loss and we do it practically every year. One win in the A10 tournament and we are a lock for a bid. Lose our first game and we’ll sweat on selection Sunday and still likely get in.
 
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DisplacedRam

DisplacedRam

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WillWeaverRVA said:
You should check the game thread after page 30 or so, but you might have most of those folks on ignore by now. 😬
Click to expand...

as luck would have it that was around the page I stopped reading because of the ridiculousness being thrown around but not before adding a few more people to the list of FAF's and suspected trolls.
 
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duncanlamb

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Apr 22, 2009
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theyaintwantit said:
Ram Fans, let’s take a look at the NET update:
  • George Mason jumped from 134 to 123. Do NOT ignore this. If they stay inside the top 160 they are a Q3 home loss which is not nearly as bad as a Q4 loss. If they stay in the top 135 they are a Q2 road win which is good for us.
Click to expand...

This. Mason is the hottest team in the A10 with a 4 game winning streak.
 
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