vcubballfan10
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Unless things change, the A10 is on pace to be a one bid league for the first time since 2004-2005.
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VCU Media Mentions
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vcumcvram
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/01/24/ncaa-tournament-bracket-mountain-west/
(8) Iowa vs. (9) New Mexico
Greensboro, N.C.
(5) Baylor vs. (12) ATLANTIC 10/VCU
(4) Marquette vs. (13) SUN BELT/Marshall
Des Moines
(3) BIG 12/Kansas State vs. (14) MISSOURI VALLEY/Southern Illinois
(6) Duke vs. (11) Ohio State
Denver
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Kentucky
(2) Arizona vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/UMass Lowell
Alabama was a No. 2 seed in 1987, 2002 and 2021, but has never finished on the top line. All the team sheet metrics have the Crimson Tide as a top-three team for now. … VCU enters the field after Dayton’s loss at George Washington on Saturday. The Atlantic 10 is on track for its first one-bid season since 2005. …
Midwest Region
(1) SEC/Alabama vs. (16) SOUTHLAND/Nicholls-SOUTHWESTERN/Southern(8) Iowa vs. (9) New Mexico
Greensboro, N.C.
(5) Baylor vs. (12) ATLANTIC 10/VCU
(4) Marquette vs. (13) SUN BELT/Marshall
Des Moines
(3) BIG 12/Kansas State vs. (14) MISSOURI VALLEY/Southern Illinois
(6) Duke vs. (11) Ohio State
Denver
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Kentucky
(2) Arizona vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/UMass Lowell
Alabama was a No. 2 seed in 1987, 2002 and 2021, but has never finished on the top line. All the team sheet metrics have the Crimson Tide as a top-three team for now. … VCU enters the field after Dayton’s loss at George Washington on Saturday. The Atlantic 10 is on track for its first one-bid season since 2005. …
So, what happens if we run the table (or close) and lose in the A10 tourney final? I'm thinking right now we still have a chance to be on the good side of the bubble. A chance.
Which again translates to: we have to win games, lots of games.
Which again translates to: we have to win games, lots of games.
vcubballfan10
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It's asking a lot at this point. Going to have to win a lot of games between now and then and have some help. Also, have to watch out for bid stealers.
I think a lot will depend on who else is on the bubble. Those putting us in now as an AQ are seeding us at 12. That usually a bubble seed. A lot of season to go. We are tending up pretty quickly. If at Dayton and neutral Pitt can stay Quad 1, I have to think we have a chance if we keep winning.
SteveMM
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Unfortunately Pitt is now a Q2 since they're at NET 64. Dayton is still a Q1, but they're at NET 69 (nice) and trending the wrong direction.
WillWeaverRVA
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I ran some simulations using Torvik's Teamcast tool and we're the fourth team out of the tournament if we win out in the regular season and lose in the finals of the conference tournament (the simulation gave us games against Duquesne, GW, and Dayton). An at-large does seem doable but we would still need some bubble teams to lose.
SteveMM
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Your opponent has to be NET 30 or below to be a home Q1 win. That's not going to happen. Both being a Q2 is possible. That's NET 31-75.
RamDanFan
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But, it always does… change.
Yep, some teams winning now will start to lose, some losing now will start to win. A few teams everyone thought were out of it will catch fire and get in. Hope VCU is in that last category.
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There is a forecast for The Bernadette Effect the same weekend as the A10 tourney.
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Do you know how that tool works? It's an efficiency site but only allows you to input W/L. What is it assuming with a W?
WillWeaverRVA
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I'm not entirely sure because it doesn't seem to take point spread into account. I'm thinking it's just straight metrics.
PhantomRam
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Some of you simply worry about something of which you have no control over. I realize its fun to run the analytics and everything (maybe), but that statistical variances are just too numerous to challenge.