- Feb 12, 2009
- 5,914
- 14,387
VCU no longer controls their own destiny for an A-10 regular season title, but still in good position
- Thread starter Natty
- Start date
- May 4, 2012
- 7,402
- 4,549
Going to be a wild tournament this year.
Impossible to know what version of what team will show up.
Throw in a hurt Hyland and its even harder to know which us we will see.
Impossible to know what version of what team will show up.
Throw in a hurt Hyland and its even harder to know which us we will see.
- Mar 2, 2014
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theyaintwantit
Top Member
- Dec 22, 2009
- 1,222
- 3,357
I'm doing a little digging right now.
If our schedule stands, we have a 9-3 record with two games remaining: vs SLU and @ Davidson. The worst we could finish is 9-5 which is a .642 Winning Percentage.
If the amount of games for each team remain where they are at now, then Dayton, Mason, Duquesne, GW, Rhody, La Salle, Fordham, & St Joe's CANNOT catch us even if we lose our last two.
Richmond, UMass, & SLU all play one another. One of those three teams CAN definitely pass us, but not all three. Two of them can pass us specially if UMass were to beat SLU.
And.... with St Bona beating Davidson today, Bona definitely has a good shot at passing us. If they win at Davidson on Wednesday, then Davidson CANNOT pass us either.
Long story short - if the schedule remains the same and that's a big *if*, then 1 win from VCU all but guarantees a top 4 finish and even a 9-5 finish could result in a Top 4 seed.
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- Feb 9, 2010
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theyaintwantit
Top Member
- Dec 22, 2009
- 1,222
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I debated making a massive graph on Excel, but I don't want to put that much time into something that may very well change at any minute.
- Dec 8, 2011
- 826
- 430
Right. .643 is the magic number right now; any team who can't max out with a pct better than that, is eliminated. Richmond would be eliminated with a loss against UMass or SLU; the loser of UR/SLU is also eliminated (assuming UR beats UMass). Davidson has to win out at this point.
Crazy enough, UMass is the #1 seed with two wins plus a single loss by the Bunnies (if UMass and Bonaventure finish tied at .800, Bonaventure wins)
Don't you just love this time of year? Why can't they teach THIS type of math in school??
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- Aug 17, 2014
- 9,462
- 22,059
And we were #1 yesterday morning. This is a big bummer.
Dear VCU and A-10 Admin -
You're both idiots (in some respects)!
The moment the final buzzer sounded at the VCU-Richmond game Wed 17 Feb, you should have shut VCU down the rest of the regular season. VCU was 16-4, 9-2, #1 in the conf, and an absolute at-large lock for an NCAA bid (no matter what happens in the A-10 tourney). We had played plenty of games (more than most), had a 31 NET, played the toughest A-10 schedule by far, a very competitive non-conf schedule, etc. We were "money in the bank." It's now quite possible VCU could go from a 16-4 lock to a 16-8 out!
This is where Ed needs some pull w/ Bernie and the A-10 office. VCU was a good soldier all season long while everyone else was "COVID-pausing" left and right. The A-10 could have shuffled the "scheduling deck" and had UR, St. Bonny, St Louis playing each other and Dayton/Davidson a lot up until Selection Sunday in order to perhaps create a "second at-large lock" resume and perhaps become a likely "3-bidder."
With this revised/current schedule and manner of tourney seeding, VCU could now easily end up 16-7, 9-5 (w/ Bones hurt now) and finish 5th or worse (meaning 4 games to win it). VCU will have played, by far, the toughest conf schedule of anyone and may have little to show for it in the standings (unless we can beat St Louis or Davidson, likely w/o Bones). Out of 14 games, we'll have played 1 Davidson, 1 St Louis, 1 UR, 2 Dayton, 2 Rhody, 2 St Bonny, 2 GMU. 11 of 14 games = challenging (Top 135 NET). Nobody in the league even comes close. By now using win percentage for seeding, we are penalized, standings-wise, for a tougher schedule. Had the league used some SOS component for seeding (as they should), we'd easily be Top 4, even at potentially 9-5.
A-10.............you very well may have cost yourself units, revenue, prestige, a multi-bid NCAA tourney, etc. Now the competing schools could very well cannibalize each other's at-large resumes. The idea to move the tourney up a week was actually smart (as a COVID buffer and as an opportunity to get a few additional games between at-large candidates who lose in the conf tourney prior to the title game on Selection Sunday in Dayton -- another smart move btw). But for the guaranteed "lock" at-large bids/resumes for the conf and for VCU, you both blew it!
VCU...........you could have easily called Bernie Wed eve and said "we're done. See you 3 Mar in Richmond." We've played and done enough. We've been cooperative and compliant (when others haven't). We need a COVID pause/break ("Johnny's got the sniffles"). Even w/ a first-round A-10 tourney loss, we'd have been 16-5, NET probably 33-ish, likely a 9-10 seed. And Bones would likely have been healthy/rested. Rhoades and Hyland would have been lauded as heros. Recruits would have taken notice (another NCAA tourney banner). Fans and donors would be going bananas (w/ joy) and flooding the AD with cash!
Now, because of what transpired Saturday (GMU loss/Bones injury), we are really up against it. If the name VCU isn't called on Selection Sunday (14 Mar), we have no one to blame but ourselves. We had it firmly in our hand and tossed it right back to the A-10/NCAA.
Funny thing is..........we're still pretty much in the same boat today. If I was Ed, I'd COVID-pause us tonight (right now) w/ a phone call to Bernie and shut us down until 3 Mar. At 16-5, 9-3, tied for first, and NET 35, we are still an at-large lock even with a first round A-10 tourney loss (16-6, probably NET 37-ish).
You're both idiots (in some respects)!
The moment the final buzzer sounded at the VCU-Richmond game Wed 17 Feb, you should have shut VCU down the rest of the regular season. VCU was 16-4, 9-2, #1 in the conf, and an absolute at-large lock for an NCAA bid (no matter what happens in the A-10 tourney). We had played plenty of games (more than most), had a 31 NET, played the toughest A-10 schedule by far, a very competitive non-conf schedule, etc. We were "money in the bank." It's now quite possible VCU could go from a 16-4 lock to a 16-8 out!
This is where Ed needs some pull w/ Bernie and the A-10 office. VCU was a good soldier all season long while everyone else was "COVID-pausing" left and right. The A-10 could have shuffled the "scheduling deck" and had UR, St. Bonny, St Louis playing each other and Dayton/Davidson a lot up until Selection Sunday in order to perhaps create a "second at-large lock" resume and perhaps become a likely "3-bidder."
With this revised/current schedule and manner of tourney seeding, VCU could now easily end up 16-7, 9-5 (w/ Bones hurt now) and finish 5th or worse (meaning 4 games to win it). VCU will have played, by far, the toughest conf schedule of anyone and may have little to show for it in the standings (unless we can beat St Louis or Davidson, likely w/o Bones). Out of 14 games, we'll have played 1 Davidson, 1 St Louis, 1 UR, 2 Dayton, 2 Rhody, 2 St Bonny, 2 GMU. 11 of 14 games = challenging (Top 135 NET). Nobody in the league even comes close. By now using win percentage for seeding, we are penalized, standings-wise, for a tougher schedule. Had the league used some SOS component for seeding (as they should), we'd easily be Top 4, even at potentially 9-5.
A-10.............you very well may have cost yourself units, revenue, prestige, a multi-bid NCAA tourney, etc. Now the competing schools could very well cannibalize each other's at-large resumes. The idea to move the tourney up a week was actually smart (as a COVID buffer and as an opportunity to get a few additional games between at-large candidates who lose in the conf tourney prior to the title game on Selection Sunday in Dayton -- another smart move btw). But for the guaranteed "lock" at-large bids/resumes for the conf and for VCU, you both blew it!
VCU...........you could have easily called Bernie Wed eve and said "we're done. See you 3 Mar in Richmond." We've played and done enough. We've been cooperative and compliant (when others haven't). We need a COVID pause/break ("Johnny's got the sniffles"). Even w/ a first-round A-10 tourney loss, we'd have been 16-5, NET probably 33-ish, likely a 9-10 seed. And Bones would likely have been healthy/rested. Rhoades and Hyland would have been lauded as heros. Recruits would have taken notice (another NCAA tourney banner). Fans and donors would be going bananas (w/ joy) and flooding the AD with cash!
Now, because of what transpired Saturday (GMU loss/Bones injury), we are really up against it. If the name VCU isn't called on Selection Sunday (14 Mar), we have no one to blame but ourselves. We had it firmly in our hand and tossed it right back to the A-10/NCAA.
Funny thing is..........we're still pretty much in the same boat today. If I was Ed, I'd COVID-pause us tonight (right now) w/ a phone call to Bernie and shut us down until 3 Mar. At 16-5, 9-3, tied for first, and NET 35, we are still an at-large lock even with a first round A-10 tourney loss (16-6, probably NET 37-ish).
WillWeaverRVA
Top Member
- Dec 30, 2011
- 10,290
- 22,462
That’s a totally brainless idea. A COVID pause means no team activities can happen, including practice. We would go into the A10 tournament cold, and if we got bounced early we could fall off the bubble.
Cyniclone
Top Member
- Jan 30, 2013
- 3,531
- 5,649
To say nothing of the blowback if it's revealed that VCU and the A-10 colluded to protect their at-large status by creating a COVID issue out of whole cloth. Maybe Kentucky can get away with that ish, but not VCU. The NCAA
And even if the Rams could pick up where they left off, a lengthy pause (even if it were legitimate) would impact their seeding, and for that matter whether they even get a bid (sure, VCU looked good three weeks ago, but where the heck are they now?) You think they'd take a hot Duke over a mothballed VCU? I sure as shoot do.
- Mar 27, 2009
- 19,840
- 11,367
- Jul 30, 2014
- 1,051
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We go as Bones goes. If he didn't get hurt, we would not have lost to Mason. Can't really expect much with him out. Coach probably should have let him rest for the Mason game with him still hobbling around from the Richmond game. No need to play injured when you're making your way into 1st round draft talks. But all we can do is hope for a speedy recovery.
RowdyPkunk
Top Member
- May 19, 2009
- 21,682
- 19,016
Couple things to this....
1. To say we would not have lost to GMU if Bones didn't get hurt.... I like the positive thinking, but we don't know that for sure.... considering when the injury happened the game was close & GMU I think even had a 1 or 2 pt lead when bones went down?
2. I kinda thought the same thing about the resting Bones against GMU... but I also understand the players wanna play, and if Bones felt good enough to go, why wouldn't Bones put his best player on the court?
3. As far as the "we go as Bones goes" (while I never hope or wish for an injury on a player)... this could be a little bit of a blessing because now we got at least 1 game, if not more where Bones is gonna be on the sideline... and the rest of the team and MR is gonna have to win the game without Bones on the court. Which will be a good test for us to see where we are as a team for the A10 Tourney & NCAA's if we make it.
But definitely hoping for a full recovery by Bones.