What'd you Expect!

[rambunctiousrowdyram]

A coach is not going to spend all summer talking about how bad the team is.

Well that’s on him. He didn’t have go on about it. He set the expectations. Since he did quite a few of us don’t want to hear exc…. reasons we are losing and look bad even in wins. He could have said we’re trying to get back to the NCAAs after last year being disappointing. He didn’t have to paint the team like some top 15 ranked squad.

 

[Mr X]

Can we stop with the amount of people we lost? UR has essentially a whole new team from the A10 title team last year and beat temple handily. The same temple pulled away everytime we got close today. Rhoades put the expectations in place. He didn’t have to make the statements about how good this team was. But he did.

And lost to William and Mary

 

[ramzilla]

I always hope we will do well and I believe it is possible. If we make the tournament, it will be great but I don't expect it anymore.

 

[Ramball]

Better offense and less TO's was my expectation.

 

[Natty]

I think a lot of people's disappointment is we feel hungry for a really good start, a start that sorta screams "VCU IS BACK, BABY!". This year hasn't been bad by any stretch of the imagination, just hasn't been that magical ride fans obviously would love to see.

When you compare this start historically to the glory year teams (Final 4 era through Rhoades' good teams) it's quite standard. Impossible really to write this team off or to punch their NCAA ticket, so much really is still TBD. Also obviously while I'm beyond annoyed we're No.101 on kenpom at this moment, those numbers, as well as the numbers of our opponents (can Pittsburgh end up surprising? Vandy? ASU?) can and will change.

-We're off to a similar start to the Final 4 Rams
-We're off to a better start than the 2012 Rams that set the wins record
-We're off to a prob slightly worse start than the 2013 5-seed Rams
-We're off to a worse (but not by a ton) start than the 2014 Rams that won at UVA

etc etc etc etc

We've got five consecutive games coming up that we should be strong favorites in to finish the non-conference. That would take us to 10-3. The challenge obviously is most of our resume-building is gonna have to come in the A-10 in the form of just stacking wins AND, taking out SLU a time or two...because our non-conference success was so blah. The good news for win stacking at least is the conference looks incredibly mediocre, there really only is about one truly good team in it (SLU), so it's an extremely winnable schedule....BUT, are we also mediocre? Time will tell.

Lots of season left and this COULD turn into a really good one if these (what we think are) really talented dudes figure it out, but I just think we're all frustrated with what sorta looks like more mediocrity.

 

[rambunctiousrowdyram]

Sorry but 10-3 hardly looks impressive when we’re playing cupcakes. Do we think that impresses the committee? If we lose the games it’s devastating. If we win it’s basically expected. VMI starts 8-0 different years whopping on low teams and D2. Then they get whacked by the first good competition.

 

[Natty]

Also if you wanna drink from a cup half full, I guess a fun comparison could be Will Wade's first team at VCU.

That squad went 8-5 and had ZERO good OOC wins (only top-100 win being a home win over No.100 ODU). The wins that made us an at-large team? at St. Joe's (43), at Richmond in OT (99), v Bona (89), at Davidson? (106), v Rhody (82), v Richmond (99), at GW (53), v Davidson in A-10 tourney (106)

Must have been a down year in the tourney, cause we danced that year AND WON.

Our resume is currently better than where that squad's was and we'll have similar opportunities, getting SLU twice, hoping UMass stays solid and hoping Dayton gets legit.

 

[Yosi Ram]

Also if you wanna drink from a cup half full, I guess a fun comparison could be Will Wade's first team at VCU.

That squad went 8-5 and had ZERO good OOC wins (only top-100 win being a home win over No.100 ODU). The wins that made us an at-large team? at St. Joe's (43), at Richmond in OT (99), v Bona (89), at Davidson? (106), v Rhody (82), v Richmond (99), at GW (53), v Davidson in A-10 tourney (106)

Must have been a down year in the tourney, cause we danced that year AND WON.

Our resume is currently better than where that squad's was and we'll have similar opportunities, getting SLU twice, hoping UMass stays solid and hoping Dayton gets legit.

Our losses were to some elite teams too. Duke, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Florida State. None of our losses this year (while not terrible) are as good as any of those losses.

 

[Ramaholic]

Also if you wanna drink from a cup half full, I guess a fun comparison could be Will Wade's first team at VCU.

That squad went 8-5 and had ZERO good OOC wins (only top-100 win being a home win over No.100 ODU). The wins that made us an at-large team? at St. Joe's (43), at Richmond in OT (99), v Bona (89), at Davidson? (106), v Rhody (82), v Richmond (99), at GW (53), v Davidson in A-10 tourney (106)

Must have been a down year in the tourney, cause we danced that year AND WON.

Our resume is currently better than where that squad's was and we'll have similar opportunities, getting SLU twice, hoping UMass stays solid and hoping Dayton gets legit.

I seem to remember that we had a very good SOS that year though. MR does a very good job winning (albeit sometimes ugly) against the teams we should beat. Since people were buying "stock in MR", I thought I would do a quick look at the Balance sheet:

ASSETS
20+ win seasons (all but one)
GREAT recruiter
Producer of NBA talent 2X and counting
Has kept us in Tournament discussion (all but 1 year)
2 NCAA appearances
Appears to like VCU
No program violations
Wins most games he should
He is seemingly more accessible to fans that SS or WW (imo)


LIABALITIES
Sell out streak broke/ Ticket sales and RAF donations declining
Broke 20 game win streak
Very few signature wins
Poor offensive ratings consistently
OOC schedule seems to be decaying a bit each year
Poor public speaker in interviews (my opinion)

I am sure I left stuff out of each column.

MR seems to be locked into the way he does things and that comes with good and bad. I think our next 4 years are going to look a lot like the past 4 years in recruiting, scheduling, game play and interviews. NIL is going to shake things up a bit the next few years and not in a good way for VCU or mid majors. I don't think there is a quick fix to getting us back to top 40 program that breaks into the rankings occasionally or receives votes.

I rate MR stock as a HOLD

 

[Mistachill]

The challenge obviously is most of our resume-building is gonna have to come in the A-10 in the form of just stacking wins AND, taking out SLU a time or two...because our non-conference success was so blah.

I would have to go through each season to confirm, but that's my worry. The formula in the past was: 1) we had a couple of big time teams who had great RPI/NET rankings that boosted our RPI/NET even if we lost; 2) had at least a couple of strong RPI/NET teams in conference to provide four+ resume enhancing win opportunities in-conference; 3) in the CAA days we could get a bracketbuster game that could help; 4) minimized resume destroying loses against really bad teams.

Where are the signature win opportunities coming from moving forward? We're no longer in the 2013 version of the A-10. Whether we want to admit it or not, we're basically close to being back in the 2011 version of the CAA. Meaning, we need signature OOC wins.

 

[Half-baked Mcbride]

I seem to remember that we had a very good SOS that year though. MR does a very good job winning (albeit sometimes ugly) against the teams we should beat. Since people were buying "stock in MR", I thought I would do a quick look at the Balance sheet:

ASSETS
20+ win seasons (all but one)
GREAT recruiter
Producer of NBA talent 2X and counting
Has kept us in Tournament discussion (all but 1 year)
2 NCAA appearances
Appears to like VCU
No program violations
Wins most games he should
He is seemingly more accessible to fans that SS or WW (imo)


LIABALITIES
Sell out streak broke/ Ticket sales and RAF donations declining
Broke 20 game win streak
Very few signature wins
Poor offensive ratings consistently
OOC schedule seems to be decaying a bit each year
Poor public speaker in interviews (my opinion)

I am sure I left stuff out of each column.

MR seems to be locked into the way he does things and that comes with good and bad. I think our next 4 years are going to look a lot like the past 4 years in recruiting, scheduling, game play and interviews. NIL is going to shake things up a bit the next few years and not in a good way for VCU or mid majors. I don't think there is a quick fix to getting us back to top 40 program that breaks into the rankings occasionally or receives votes.

I rate MR stock as a HOLD

I think this is a pretty fair assessment, although the “1st liability” cannot be squarely and easily placed at MR’s feet.
That one is an issue with myriad reasons and explanations.

But again, very fair and balanced assessment

 

[Love2Ram]

Can we stop with the amount of people we lost? UR has essentially a whole new team from the A10 title team last year and beat temple handily. The same temple pulled away everytime we got close today. Rhoades put the expectations in place. He didn’t have to make the statements about how good this team was. But he did.

I'll buy your season tickets from you and hand them to the needy if you will go watch games at the Robins Center.

 

[AHEF]

I was not expecting VCU fans to act like UR fans about firing the coach during the season. I was expecting / hoping for 6-2. Johns would be a Double point scorer. Current one is to improve offense to avoid the long FG droughts.

 

[Ramaholic]

I think this is a pretty fair assessment, although the “1st liability” cannot be squarely and easily placed at MR’s feet.
That one is an issue with myriad reasons and explanations.

But again, very fair and balanced assessment

Correct. Covid and mask wearing killed revenue the last 2 years. But so did the escalation of ticket prices/ RAF levels while a declining product was put on the floor. However, this was happening with or without Covid. We are on a downward trajectory across the board in nearly all categories except recruiting and NBA talent. As with buying stocks on a dip; have we found a floor (20'sh wins/ every other year NCAA bubble) or do we keep falling to say an fUR level which is NCAA bubble every 5 years or so?
And then there are market factors. NIL is going to hurt us and all mid majors (except maybe programs that have a few whale donors). And as revenue declines (student fees/ RAF/ticket? NCAA share/ Corporate/ TV/ merch...) while expenses rise, what does that do to the program in terms of recruiting? Other programs will get newer practice facilities, nicer dorms... Will we be able to keep up with the arms race?

 

[Natty]

Our losses were to some elite teams too. Duke, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Florida State. None of our losses this year (while not terrible) are as good as any of those losses.

By Kenpom ranking
Duke 17
Wisconsin 38
FSU 48
GT 51 (by 13)
Cinci 32

This year it's ASU 47, Memphis 26 and Temple 91.

Honestly not a huge difference other than the Temple one. That first Will Wade team ended up with some sub-150 losses at Mason and UMass too, so there's an opportunity to not do similar this year.