Work Those Quads! (Net Ranking A10 Quick Reference Thread) VCU 73

HBK

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margin of victory is no longer a factor in NET (that was adjusted in 2020 changes) A road win versus LaSalle who had a NET of like 270 is not a reason to advance much in my thinking - this was not a road win versus a quality opponent
NET still preplexes me at times - though happy we are in 50s now and getting to that solid position for selection to tourney if we are not an AQ

I looked at what our opponents did yesterday too before I asked my question because I recognize that is a factor
Uconn lost to a quality team SHU
Syracuse lost to an ok team
Vandy lost at home to SC a below avg SEC team
baylor road victory vs TCU (good victory)
dayton beats GWU (another a10 dog)
Chat beat someone in their conference
not sure if any other games of importance of past opponents ( in my thinking opponents performance nothing that could have caused boost to VCU yesterday)
I can't figure out the NET either, which is why I just look at Warren Nolan's site. He has a feature that shows 'Impact Games', which are games that, obviously, impact a team's NET. It is teams you have played already. Here is a link to VCU's page: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-impact?team=VCU

No one we've played has a game today, so the page is blank. As an example of what it looks like when teams impacting us are actually playing, I'm including a link to Maryland's 'Impact Games', since they play today: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-impact?team=Maryland

It shows RPI points a team can gain or lose, but I know it does impact the NET. I've actually found this helpful in partly explaining NET movements of teams. Then again, I'm a numbers guy, so I tend to geek out on this kind of stuff.
 
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4-0 on the road baby!
must carry an outsized influence
Dayton moved up 15 spots in NET with a road victory at pathetic GWU (NET 280)
Davidson moved down 2 spots in NET with home victory vs Rhode island with a net around (100)
yeah I recognize that by itself is just one of many components considered/calculated but intuitively just ????????

I know they use the efficiency rankings/ratings as part of the NET analysis ( i was wondering whether that was the significant reason we moved up so much in how efficient we have been in last few games defensively and sometimes offensively - but I remain perplexed but HAPPY.
 

RamDanFan

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margin of victory is no longer a factor in NET (that was adjusted in 2020 changes) A road win versus LaSalle who had a NET of like 270 is not a reason to advance much in my thinking - this was not a road win versus a quality opponent
NET still preplexes me at times - though happy we are in 50s now and getting to that solid position for selection to tourney if we are not an AQ

I looked at what our opponents did yesterday too before I asked my question because I recognize that is a factor
Uconn lost to a quality team SHU
Syracuse lost to an ok team
Vandy lost at home to SC a below avg SEC team
baylor road victory vs TCU (good victory)
dayton beats GWU (another a10 dog)
Chat beat someone in their conference
not sure if any other games of importance of past opponents ( in my thinking opponents performance nothing that could have caused boost to VCU yesterday)

NET is still certainly impacted by margin of victory through offensive and defensive efficiencies metrics. I suspect it is also also the reason for the huge bump we received.
 

AlienAiden

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margin of victory is no longer a factor in NET (that was adjusted in 2020 changes) A road win versus LaSalle who had a NET of like 270 is not a reason to advance much in my thinking - this was not a road win versus a quality opponent
NET still preplexes me at times - though happy we are in 50s now and getting to that solid position for selection to tourney if we are not an AQ

I looked at what our opponents did yesterday too before I asked my question because I recognize that is a factor
Uconn lost to a quality team SHU
Syracuse lost to an ok team
Vandy lost at home to SC a below avg SEC team
baylor road victory vs TCU (good victory)
dayton beats GWU (another a10 dog)
Chat beat someone in their conference
not sure if any other games of importance of past opponents ( in my thinking opponents performance nothing that could have caused boost to VCU yesterday)
I am not sure about that. The NCAA has not released NET calculations. I think margin of victory especially on the road does come into play but pretty much everything is a guess of what goes into it.
 

GuardTheArc

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NET is still certainly impacted by margin of victory through offensive and defensive efficiencies metrics. I suspect it is also also the reason for the huge bump we received.

Correct. “Margin of victory” is essentially offensive/defensive (possession) metrics. It is the primary reason for the significant bump (plus road win).

Check St. Bonny after 37-pt loss to Virginia Tech and other blowouts. Big swings in NET.
 

GuardTheArc

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NET is, by and large, the most important (and predictive) metric for NCAA tourney qualifying purposes.

After the roughly 22 auto-bids for one-bid conferences, 46 slots remain (total = 68). The overwhelming majority of those remaining 46 slots each year will go to the Top 46 NET (generally 42-44 of them; about 92-96%). Yes, there will be a few outliers (NET >50) but, for the most part, it's the Top 46 NET.

There will also, naturally, be a few teams "inside the Top 46 NET" that won't qualify (they might have a special circumstance like 300+ OOC SOS (see NC State in years past), a losing (6-10) reg season conf record, a first round conf tourney exit, a barely-above/below or .500 record overall - like Penn St last season, some combination of several of these, and so on - but still have a Top 46 NET due to some blowout wins, their overall SOS, road wins, etc).

For VCU (a program typically hovering in the 25-75 NET range), or any school for that matter, you want to get (and stay/end up) in that Top 46 NET group. The higher up the better (obviously), particularly for a non-P6 school (which are slightly more apt to get bumped by a lower NET P6 team).

In general (always a few exceptions however), amongst the typical multi-bid (i.e. Top 10) conferences, on Selection Sunday:
Top 35 NET
= lock (generally Top 9 seed range)
36-42 NET = pretty good shape (10-11 seed range)
43-50 NET = bubble ("last four in, first four out" range) - 11-12 seed range
51-60 NET = outside looking in w/ a few exceptions - generally Top 1-2 NIT seed range

Note: Mike would do well, particularly this season if/when the opportunity presents itself, to "pour it on" at the end of blowouts to increase "margin of victory" (and help facilitate even the slightest of NET increases when/where applicable). If we find ourselves in at-large contention come late Feb, we'll need every bit of NET help we can get. I normally favor "sportsmanship" and "letting off the gas pedal" a bit late in blowouts (if/when we have them) but with NET impacted so substantially by "MOV (Margin of Victory)," I would err on the side of helping my NET. Unfortunately, it's the (at-large/bubble) world in which VCU lives.
 
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Correct. “Margin of victory” is essentially offensive/defensive (possession) metrics. It is the primary reason for the significant bump (plus road win).

Check St. Bonny after 37-pt loss to Virginia Tech and other blowouts. Big swings in NET.
Margin of victoty was not an effiency stat and is no longer part of the NET equation.

Efficiency is and has always been a component.
 

GuardTheArc

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Margin of victoty was not an effiency stat and is no longer part of the NET equation.

Efficiency is and has always been a component.
"Margin of Victory" and "Offensive/Defensive Efficiency" (per possession metrics) are essentially one in the same. Definitely a big part of NET. See Va Tech resume/metrics (as but one example).
 
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"Margin of Victory" and "Offensive/Defensive Efficiency" (per possession metrics) are essentially one in the same. Definitely a big part of NET. See Va Tech resume/metrics (as but one example).
No, they are not. Margin of victory was a trmpo-less stat. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume you don't know what that means since you're conflating MoV with Tempo. It means that winning 25-20 was equal to winning 200-195. Those two are not equal despite having the same margin because the latter likely shows two teams that are much more evenly matched than the former.
 

GuardTheArc

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No, they are not. Margin of victory was a trmpo-less stat. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume you don't know what that means since you're conflating MoV with Tempo. It means that winning 25-20 was equal to winning 200-195. Those two are not equal despite having the same margin because the latter likely shows two teams that are much more evenly matched than the former.
VCU plays GW Tues night.......

70-possession game:
Scenario A: VCU wins 70-69 (1 pt MoV) - 1.00 points per offensive possession (before adjustment for competition)
Scenario B: VCU wins 100-69 (31 pt MoV) - 1.43 points per offensive possession (before adjustment for competition)

Scenario B (significantly larger Margin of Victory) will help our offensive efficiency metrics and boost our NET (to some degree) more than Scenario A.
 

WillWeaverRVA

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VCU plays GW Tues night.......

70-possession game:
Scenario A: VCU wins 70-69 (1 pt MoV) - 1.00 points per offensive possession (before adjustment for competition)
Scenario B: VCU wins 100-69 (31 pt MoV) - 1.43 points per offensive possession (before adjustment for competition)

Scenario B (significantly larger Margin of Victory) will help our offensive efficiency metrics and boost our NET (to some degree) more than Scenario A.
You had me at VCU scoring 100 points.
 
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As predicted if we won at Dayton we would move to the 50s. 53 to be exact.
 

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VCU plays GW Tues night.......

70-possession game:
Scenario A: VCU wins 70-69 (1 pt MoV) - 1.00 points per offensive possession (before adjustment for competition)
Scenario B: VCU wins 100-69 (31 pt MoV) - 1.43 points per offensive possession (before adjustment for competition)

Scenario B (significantly larger Margin of Victory) will help our offensive efficiency metrics and boost our NET (to some degree) more than Scenario A.
Sigh, your example is about efficiency not margin of victory

Also, the purpose of NET is t to produce a seed lost like you're positing, but to create team sheets so thencoittee can see how well a team played against quadrants. If you don't believe me, look at MSU vs. SLU last year. There's a strong correlation, but you you're mistaking good NET causes a good seed.
 
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