Since anyone/everyone can get the auto bid in March, if you are an accomplished mid-major like VCU, the only purpose of the OOC is to put yourself in a position for an at-large. Richmond and ODU have done this AGAIN this year (they are senior-heavy). We have not (we are also senior-heavy). If you are loaded with seniors/juniors (which we are), you should expect big things.
Richmond got an at-large last year. ODU very well may have. Both ODU and Richmond are well-positioned for at-large berths this year as well. OOC mission accomplished (for them). Not for us.
On the other hand, we have accomplished practically nothing in the OOC (except for a neutral win vs UCLA).
First of all, nobody cares about home wins vs sub-100 RPI teams.........good programs are supposed to win those and everyone pretty much does. To even get excited about Wofford, New Hampshire, VMI, Tulane, UNCG, etc. is ridiculous. They are, and should be, no-brainers.
When you are a mid-major, you generally have precious few opportunities to make a statement (i.e. road games against quality opponents). We are 1-3 in true road games (win vs Wake - #183 KenPom). Our AdjD = 125 (awful). Our KenPom = 90. Three golden opportunities (Rich, S. Fla, UAB) blown.....and with it, any at-large hopes. 49-19 Richmond, 26-8 So Fla, 34-12 game-ending run by UAB. Three road games against quality competition, three meltdowns.........and we have a BUNCH of seniors/juniors (a luxury). That's what I see. I don't care about Siegel Center games (you get home cookin' from the refs and rabid fan support to boost your energy levels and confidence). The true measure of a team is how they perform under duress (true road games). That's when you find out if they're poised......that's when you find out if they're well-coached.....that's when you find out if they can overcome adversity.......that's when you find out if they're mentally tough........that's when you find out if they can execute/focus at both ends, play intelligently, and close teams out.
Our competition is:
#1) ODU..........four at-large resume enhancers...........Xavier, Clemson, Richmond, Dayton. KenPom #66. AdjD = 69. One true road win = @ East Carolina. Also played G-Town/Missouri...........nice RPI enhancers.
#2) Drexel........5 true road wins including @ Louisville, @ Northeastern. AdjD = 51. KenPom = 74.
#3) GMU.........2 true road wins........@ Duquesne, @ Liberty. AdjD = 56; KenPom = 53.
#4 VCU.........1 true road win.........@ #183 Wake. AdjD = 125; KenPom = 90.
Both GMU and Drexel are "significantly" younger than us overall...........and both play better D than VCU.
The biggest red flag is the AdjD (125). Teams are scoring on us quite easily. We are soft. We do not have a defensive posture/identity. No one protecting the rim, too small on the perimeter.
The second biggest red flag is the way we play with a lead..............pitiful. The number of opponent comebacks (and Ram meltdowns) is alarming. This ties in directly with our AdjD, our coaching, our poise. Can't get stops when we need 'em. Also, pressure bothers us (real pressure, from good teams).
Flashback: Our season (essentially) ended last year directly as a result of the above.............11 pt lead on ODU with 9:28 to play in the CAA semi. Couldn't get stops when we needed 'em down the stretch. Couldn't execute offensively (play intelligently) with the lead. Played scared!
Haven't seen much, if any, improvement in that area, or in the rebounding department, or in several other areas of deficiency. FT shooting is worse. Defense is worse.
So, to recap, we play average defense, we don't rebound, our TO margin is only +2.5 (despite havoc), we have only one signature win (UCLA, if you can call it that), we blow big leads, we get thumped by our rival/neighbor, we've struggled at home with VMI/Tulane/W&M/Wofford, we're allowing 70 ppg (quite high), we're 1-3 on the road, 0-3 on the road against Top 150 RPI, our competition is better-positioned than us for an at-large despite our senior-laden roster, etc.
Shaka's got A LOT of work to do......
Last yr and this year at Siegel Center: 24-1.
Last yr and this year away from Siegel Center: 12-12
Oh yeah, the good stuff.........yellow uniforms, two ESPN2 appearances over the Thanksgiving holiday, Theus/Brandenberg/Reddic are young.