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Programs like ours play with risky odds when it comes to recruiting. Coaches at VCUesque schools try to use all their senses to find that under the radar kid and then hope that the 2 or 3* turns into the next phenom. The only schools that bring in sure shot talent are the likes of Duke, Kentuky and UNC and that's why they are always in contention for the championship. Most of these 4* are high risk too.
So only one and dones are sure shot talent? UNC isn't known for one and done players btw. They have the #14 class in 2018, #19 in 2017 and didn't have a player selected in the NBA draft.