CAA at-large bids?

Natty

Natty

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Don't know how many of you read this, so wanted to pass along a nice article by Mr. Litos over there at CAAHoops.com

http://www.caahoops.com/2010/12/passing-the-sniff-test/

Back on November 8, I made the very November 8 statement that the CAA, structurally, was looking an awful lot like 2006-07. There were similarities in talent levels, seniority, and preseason optics. The gist: assuming the CAA took care of its nonconference business, the league was “structured” for a similar season. That year resulted in ODUs at large berth.

Now that we’re closing in on the end of the nonconference season, let’s revisit performance and compare:

In 2006-07, (specifically January 1, 2007) the CAA had six teams in the top 112 of the RPI. This year, as of December 27 (close enough?), the CAA has six teams in the top 111 of the RPI.
The 2007 teams: Drexel (#7), Mason (84), Hofstra (85), ODU (90), VCU (111), and Towson (112). As a whole, the conference was #13.
The 2011 teams: ODU (12), Drexel (17), Mason (69), JMU (78), VCU (80), Delaware (111). As a whole, the conference is 10th.
The conference was 6-20 against the Big Six conferences and 62-62 overall in 2006-07. This year, they are 6-15 against Big Six and 68-46 overall.
On the road, CAA teams were 19-42 in 2006-07. This year, they are 20-28.
Click to expand...

Click on the link, lots more good stuff to read in that article...
 
Interesting article. Let's hope the selection committee will be aware of these numbers.
 
While I certainly think the CAA can (and should) be a multi-bid league this year, it won't matter for us. VCU is not getting an at-large big to the NCAA's. We have to win the league, period. Don't have enough good wins to be taken seriously by the selection committee and short of going on a massive winning streak, we don't have much of a case.

We need to focus on the CAA schedule and doing what we can to beat teams like ODU and Drexel that look clearly better than us at this point of the season. We need to make up a lot of ground.
 
We will only get an at-large if ODU does incredibly well and we sweep them in conference. We also have to finish first or second during the regular season.

We can get those elusive top-50 wins in conference play. We haven't suffered any bad losses yet (though USF might turn into one as the season goes along) - which is usually what keeps teams out of the dance.
 
DCDuck said:
We will only get an at-large if ODU does incredibly well and we sweep them in conference. We also have to finish first or second during the regular season.
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ODU down by 22 with 3min to play
 
29 points now with a minute remaining.

EDIT: 85-58 final. Jeez. Rough game, but that's why Mizzou is a top 10 squad.
 
This isn't a "bad" loss for ODU by any stretch of the imagination. If ODU doesn't have any more stumbles against teams like Delaware (I am convinced they are a one-man squad and won't finish any higher than 9th in conference this year) they should finish the regular season with a top-25 RPI.

Remember: they have wins over Dayton, Xavier and Clemson. Three very nice wins out of conference.
 
districtballer said:
29 points now with a minute remaining.

EDIT: 85-58 final. Jeez. Rough game, but that's why Mizzou is a top 10 squad.
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Yipes. Bit of a conference report card there. But hey, they're our conference's best at large credentialed club right now. Hope we beat 'em in the finals and at least us, ODU, and hopefully Drexel make history and make March a MAD, MAD, MAD world.
 
this is a bad loss for odu. lose by 27 shows they aren't as good as they think they are...i hope they eat some crow on this ... waiting for the fire blame taylor threads on the zone...we may blow leads and maybe should have won @ USF & UAB but when was the last time a vcu squad got manhandled by 27?
 
When's the last time Missouri lost at home to a non-conference opponent? Their record at home is comparable to Michigan State, Kansas and Duke. Even National Championship contenders (Kansas State last year) have a tough time in that building.

That said, I think it was nice for ODU fans to get a slice of humble pie.
 
major ram said:
this is a bad loss for odu. lose by 27 shows they aren't as good as they think they are...i hope they eat some crow on this ... waiting for the fire blame taylor threads on the zone...we may blow leads and maybe should have won @ USF & UAB but when was the last time a vcu squad got manhandled by 27?
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They are still better than us and Missouri is a horrible matchup for them. They are the BCS version of us and even at that on steroids. Their press makes ours look like swiss cheese (although we probably don't need to compare ourselves to a top 10 team to realize that). Most teams in the NCAA can break our press without breaking a sweat.

While it's always nice as a VCU fan to see ODU completely blown out, we likely would have suffered the same fate or worse given how inconsistent and poorly we have played on the mental side of the ball. If you ask unbiased fans of the CAA right now we may be 4th or 5th in the league behind ODU, Drexel, Mason, and/or JMU. They probably have a good case for that argument right now. We all know we can be better, but we're not right now. Gotta pick it up and win where it counts in the conference schedule.
 
They (ODU) are inconsistent at best. Me thinks there is something not right in Norfolk. Just call it a hunch. ;)

There are five CAA team in the Top 100 as of this morning. Two are top 30. Only one, ODU, has any real chance at an at-large without a long run. But even ODU will need to win 15-16 in conference to have a shot. They are already in the hole having dropped the game at UD.

The thing to look at at this point in a season is the SOS of the Top teams. SOS drives 75% of your RPI. Here are the SOS scores for the Top 5 RPI CAA teams:

ODU- 19
DU- 117
VCU- 137
GMU- 163
JMU- 218

From that you can see that anyone but ODU is really fighting uphill. but you still have to play the games, and there is nobody in this (or any other conference) that is not just an injury away from disaster.

On a positive note, I looked at our OOC teams in a little more detail, and I think we will see our OOWP go up a bit in the coming weeks. That game against USF really helps. Their next five games are against teams that are a collective 56-6 so far. That will go straight to the 25% of the numbers that make up OOWP.

Just win. That is what we need to do the most.
 
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