Jerry Palm @ CBSSports projects VCU as CAA Champ

I predict the winner of the CAA will have a higher seed than 13 and VT will not be seeded 5th. (A 13 seed is possible if there is a tourney upset but that's not what he is predicting). VT''s schedule is better than normal [not saying much] but with Thompson & Chaney already out for the year Rain's foot is going to need to get better fast to finish in the top 3 of the ACC. Jerry needs to admit he does not have enough data.
 
A 13th seed for this conference is a joke.
 
He doesn't even have ODU or Mason as "on the fence". :?

The CAA champ seems to get an 11 seed more often than not, regardless of RPI.

2010 - ODU (RPI 27)
2009 - VCU (RPI 54)

That is, unless Jerry Palm projects us to finish 2nd or worse in conference regular season play, but win the CAA Tournament. That's what happened when Mason won the tournament in 2008 when they got a 13.
 
Since everything right now is conjecture and speculation let me add one more opinion to the fray. Kenpom the website that does the realtime RPI predicts the Rams to win every game except at UR and ODU. They do not predict any second game of any tourney nor do they predict post season play. As of the moment they have us ranked at no.57


http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Virginia%20Commonwealth
 
A slight discrepancy? The prediction list shows 2 losses but the totals show us at 20-6 overall, 14-4 CAA.

ViCtorioUs said:
Since everything right now is conjecture and speculation let me add one more opinion to the fray. Kenpom the website that does the realtime RPI predicts the Rams to win every game except at UR and ODU. They do not predict any second game of any tourney nor do they predict post season play. As of the moment they have us ranked at no.57


http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Virginia%20Commonwealth
Click to expand...
 
ramramthankyoumaam said:
A slight discrepancy? The prediction list shows 2 losses but the totals show us at 20-6 overall, 14-4 CAA.
Click to expand...

I know, it doesn't add up. Remember Bob Uecker's famous line from Major League "Just a bit outside?"
Kenpom is supposedly one of the more legitimate on line rating services. It just goes to show that pretty much everyrhing this time of year is just a guess.
 
ramramthankyoumaam said:
A slight discrepancy? The prediction list shows 2 losses but the totals show us at 20-6 overall, 14-4 CAA.
Click to expand...


Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.
Click to expand...
 
xjohnx said:
ramramthankyoumaam said:
A slight discrepancy? The prediction list shows 2 losses but the totals show us at 20-6 overall, 14-4 CAA.
Click to expand...


Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

I read that too XJOHNX. What the heck does that mean? Perhaps one of the mathematics professors on the boards here can explain this probability theory stuff to me. Anyway....14-4 in the CAA sounds much more realistic than 17-1 for this team.
 
ramramthankyoumaam said:
xjohnx said:
ramramthankyoumaam said:
A slight discrepancy? The prediction list shows 2 losses but the totals show us at 20-6 overall, 14-4 CAA.
Click to expand...


Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

I read that too XJOHNX. What the heck does that mean? Perhaps one of the mathematics professors on the boards here can explain this probability theory stuff to me. Anyway....14-4 in the CAA sounds much more realistic than 17-1 for this team.
Click to expand...

Basically, they think we will lose to ODU and UR. They think we should win all of the other games, but you always lose some games that you should win. They just can't predict which ones those will be. It is hard to explain, or even understand, but that is my take on it.
 
It's not that we will lose, but that we will not be favored to win, based on last year's numbers.
 
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