NIT- Where we stand

fmrick

fmrick

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EDIT 3/11/10 to reflect changed in auto-bid.

Looking at the various sites and having read the NIT rules, I don't see how some of these guys come up with what they have. So I decided I'd post my own numbers and let everyone rank them the way they want.

You can't really determine NIT until you know what the NCAA looks like. So I used the daily bracket Jerry Palm puts up on his site, because it puts the top 100 or so on one page. It shows lots of data. Based upon his picks here are the ranking of the next 32 teams:

UAB, URI, Wichita St., Dayton

Washington, Arzoina St, W&M, UConn

Marshall, Nevada, Cincinnati, VCU

New Mexico St., Mississippi St., USF, Texas Tech

Tulsa, NU, Illinois St., Illinois

Charlotte, Minnesota, La. Tech, St. Johns

Portland, Fairfield, Troy, Quinnipiac,

Weber St., Coastal Carolina, Jacksonville, and Stoney Brook

Now we know that there are lower teams that have already got an NIT bid. So they are listed instead of the last six by RPI- Wirght St., St. Louis, South Carolina, UNC, Arizona, IUPUI.

Now I'll repeat that that is just a straight listing, based upon RPI. But if you look at the other numbers out there, like OOC record, OOC RPI, and SOS, things will change some. But in almost every case VCU looks better than the 3rd group that they are currently in. So I think we are in a better position than most list us.

The NIT-ology site has Georgia Tech as a #1 seed. Palm has them in the NCAA tournament.

NIT-ology has USF as a one seed and they are in the 4th group because of a 68 RPI.
Their OOC RPI is 80 and they are 3-5 against the top 50. I don't see how they could be considered a #1 seed.

Looking at the above teams VCU has-
-12th best RPI at 65
-3rd best OOC record
-3rd best OOC RPI (13th)
-VCU is the only team that has a winning record against the Top 50 (3-2)

I'll post more numbers as we get closer, but I see us as a 3 or 4.
 
Add Troy, Quinnipiac, and Weber St. to the #1's that have lost their tournament...great
 
Wouldn't those teams just mentioned be seeded near the bottom? Maybe not too much gloom and doom yet...positive vibes...positive vibes
 
Top post was changed to reflect the auto-bid that did not win their tournaments.

Tonight I'll update the RPI listings. Palm now has URI IN and Arizina St. out. Both would be above us anyway, so it should not matter. It might change some of the rankings I posted.

Still don't see how NIT-oloy can list some of the teams he has in. They are far lower in RPI than teams that he has out.
 
I don't have much issue with USF is a # 1 seed. Numbers are nice, but at the end of the day there are people (not machines) sitting in a room making selections and determining seeding. A team that barely misses the NCAAs from the Big East and would've been the next team in from that conference should probably be a top seed. They are 20-12 and 9-9 in the Big East with nice wins over G'town and Pitt.

If I am on the committee I am not sure we deserve a home game with a 5th place finish and an 11-7 record in the CAA. Seems 5 is about right for this season. I'd almost rather the guys go on the road - - it's a tougher test and with the issues we've had away from the Stu it would be better preparation for next year.
 
Which VCU team will they look at ? The one that played at the siegel center or the one that played on the road ? If they look at the home VCU, no one would want to play us but if they look at the road VCU, I would say we are not that imposing.

Virtually all of the 'small tourneys' are done so you pretty much only have teams left that don't get ncaa at large bids..I think we will be either a 4 or 5 seed in NIT...to me its a toss up. What happens in the Big East certainly could affect our seeding. Where will Seton Hall, St. Johns and Cincy be seeded...probably around 3 or 4 i would think

dont forget that TV wants good matchups too for ESPN..I would think the attraction of having a potential first round NBA draft pick to showcase would certainly help our case. There won't be many NIT teams that have a player with the upside of Larry.

at least as a 4 seed we would get one home game...would be nice to see t.j. and kirill at the stu one more time !
 
Hmmm, if it's about money then take VCU and ODU to the big dance. Send NU and William & Mary to the NIT. Have fans will travel. W/M beat some good ACC teams and yet the CAA doesn't get enough respect IMO. The ACC is not all that this yr! The top 6 teams in the CAA are tough. Give the little conference a chance. heck CBS is still running story's about Mason going to the Final 4. Time for the NCAA to realize that the CAA is pretty good.
 
bostonspider said:
Interesting article in Dayton paper on how the NIT committee goes about selecting teams. It is not about "numbers" to them, more about gut feel. Who would be harder to be beat... I think that VCU's reputation gained in the last few tourneys will definitely help getting a higher seed.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayt...-ud-wsu-on-radar-592348.html?cxtype=ynews_rss
Click to expand...

I don't see it as a plus for VCU. The majority of the selection committee has deep roots with current 'BCS' schools. I would expect folks with those back grounds to have a bias towards what they are familiar with, and who puts money in their pockets. Any time you move a selection process away from quantitative factors, into subjective qualitative judgments you increase the risk of bias and fraud affecting the process.
Also we have not made any national noise this year, and could easily be written off as a 5th place team in a mid tier conference. I hope I’m wrong but I would not be surprised to see us get a 6 seed, if any seed at all.
 
VCU MJ said:
bostonspider said:
Interesting article in Dayton paper on how the NIT committee goes about selecting teams. It is not about "numbers" to them, more about gut feel. Who would be harder to be beat... I think that VCU's reputation gained in the last few tourneys will definitely help getting a higher seed.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayt...-ud-wsu-on-radar-592348.html?cxtype=ynews_rss
Click to expand...

I don't see it as a plus for VCU. The majority of the selection committee has deep roots with current 'BCS' schools. I would expect folks with those back grounds to have a bias towards what they are familiar with, and who puts money in their pockets. Any time you move a selection process away from quantitative factors, into subjective qualitative judgments you increase the risk of bias and fraud affecting the process.
Also we have not made any national noise this year, and could easily be written off as a 5th place team in a mid tier conference. I hope I’m wrong but I would not be surprised to see us get a 6 seed, if any seed at all.
Click to expand...

I agree with VCUMJ
 
Possible bracket based on Rick's seeds above:

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